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WO2002063424A3 - Method for forecasting prices and other attributes of agricultural commodities - Google Patents

Method for forecasting prices and other attributes of agricultural commodities Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2002063424A3
WO2002063424A3 PCT/US2002/002739 US0202739W WO02063424A3 WO 2002063424 A3 WO2002063424 A3 WO 2002063424A3 US 0202739 W US0202739 W US 0202739W WO 02063424 A3 WO02063424 A3 WO 02063424A3
Authority
WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
commodities
trade
function
forecasts
regions
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Ceased
Application number
PCT/US2002/002739
Other languages
French (fr)
Other versions
WO2002063424A2 (en
Inventor
Thomas L Cox
Jean-Paul Chavas
Zhu Yong
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation
Original Assignee
Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Priority claimed from US09/775,946 external-priority patent/US20020143604A1/en
Application filed by Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation filed Critical Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation
Priority to AU2002237992A priority Critical patent/AU2002237992A1/en
Publication of WO2002063424A2 publication Critical patent/WO2002063424A2/en
Publication of WO2002063424A3 publication Critical patent/WO2002063424A3/en
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical
Ceased legal-status Critical Current

Links

Classifications

    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising

Landscapes

  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Accounting & Taxation (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Finance (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Dairy Products (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)

Abstract

The method and system of the present invention enables the forecasting of agricultural commodity prices and amounts of consumption, production and trade flows across regions, under a variety of supply and demand, trade and domestic policy scenarios and over an at least annual time period. The method employs a multi-component spatial equilibrium function (220) approximating an inter-regional market in agricultural commodities, such as dairy commodities, and enables the setting of trade and domestic policy instruments to enable forecasting under a variety of forecast scenarios. The function (220) further enables the incorporation of intermediate commodities, in addition to primary and processed commodities, to account for the effects of reconstitution technologies on said forecasted values. The method generally comprises creating an inputs database (190) comprising a definition of the regions and forecast scenarios, and a plurality of dairy sector data spanning a number of recent years including commodity prices and amounts of consumption, production and trade flow in the regions; refining the function (250); solving the refined function by maximizing a consumer and a producer surplus net of all transaction costs (300), to generate the forecasts; and, outputting the forecasts to a results database (390). The method may further solve for an optimal amount of intermediate commodities consumed in the making of the final processed commodities by region under an assumption of optimal use to further refine the forecasts (350). The system outputs (370) in the forms of graphs, spreadsheets, maps, or other formats can be delivered electronically through various media.
PCT/US2002/002739 2001-02-02 2002-02-01 Method for forecasting prices and other attributes of agricultural commodities Ceased WO2002063424A2 (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
AU2002237992A AU2002237992A1 (en) 2001-02-02 2002-02-01 Method for forecasting prices and other attributes of agricultural commodities

Applications Claiming Priority (4)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
US09/775,946 US20020143604A1 (en) 2001-02-02 2001-02-02 Method for forecasting the effects of trade policies and supply and demand conditions on the world dairy sector
US09/775,946 2001-02-02
US10/058,002 US6865542B2 (en) 2001-02-02 2002-01-29 Method and system for accurately forecasting prices and other attributes of agricultural commodities
US10/058,002 2002-01-29

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
WO2002063424A2 WO2002063424A2 (en) 2002-08-15
WO2002063424A3 true WO2002063424A3 (en) 2002-11-21

Family

ID=26737124

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
PCT/US2002/002739 Ceased WO2002063424A2 (en) 2001-02-02 2002-02-01 Method for forecasting prices and other attributes of agricultural commodities

Country Status (2)

Country Link
AU (1) AU2002237992A1 (en)
WO (1) WO2002063424A2 (en)

Families Citing this family (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US8214250B2 (en) 1998-09-18 2012-07-03 Jda Software Group, Inc. System and method for multi-enterprise supply chain optimization
JP2002358327A (en) * 2001-06-01 2002-12-13 Fujitsu Ltd Product information providing method, product information using method, product information providing device, program, and recording medium
WO2020080925A1 (en) * 2018-10-16 2020-04-23 Roldan Vazquez Sergio Alejandro System and process for commercial transactions, comparing the characteristics, naming and/or presentation of products on a national and international level

Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20020032585A1 (en) * 1999-12-30 2002-03-14 Keyes Tim Kerry Valuation prediction models in situations with missing inputs
US20020042768A1 (en) * 2000-10-06 2002-04-11 Osamu Kurose Method and apparatus for supporting transaction
US20020059091A1 (en) * 2000-07-05 2002-05-16 Renessen Llc Apparatus and methods for selecting farms to grow a crop of interest

Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20020032585A1 (en) * 1999-12-30 2002-03-14 Keyes Tim Kerry Valuation prediction models in situations with missing inputs
US20020059091A1 (en) * 2000-07-05 2002-05-16 Renessen Llc Apparatus and methods for selecting farms to grow a crop of interest
US20020042768A1 (en) * 2000-10-06 2002-04-11 Osamu Kurose Method and apparatus for supporting transaction

Non-Patent Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
"Our Technology", COMMODICAST, XP002954888, Retrieved from the Internet <URL:http://www.commodicast.com/technology.html> [retrieved on 20020620] *

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
WO2002063424A2 (en) 2002-08-15
AU2002237992A1 (en) 2002-08-19

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