RU2748132C1 - Method for detecting the possibility of a tsunami - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: seismology.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to the field of seismology, and in particular to methods for determining the precursors of tsunamis and tropical cyclones. Disclosed is a method for determining a tsunami precursor. The method includes the placement of groups of devices for recording seismic signals at deep observation horizons in the coastal zone and at a distance from it in order to gradually determine the danger of a tsunami, connecting them with a communication path with external stations for receiving and processing seismic signals, and recording seismic signals. Additionally, the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, the baric gradient of electrical discharges in the atmosphere, frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere are recorded, the correlation coefficient is determined for the measured values ​​of the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, the baric gradient of electrical discharges in the atmosphere, the frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere, according to which the possibility of a tsunami wave is estimated. Additionally, long waves in the range of 4-28 Hz are distinguished, phase velocities of which vary in the range of 350-700 m / s, free gravitational waves excited by seismic surface waves are distinguished by the difference in phase velocities, which serve as a signal of the approach of a tsunami. When a tsunami wave is detected in the open ocean up to 1 m high and moving at a speed of 500-700 km / h, the speed and height of this wave are measured. By changing the speed up to 30-60 km and an increase in wave height up to 30-40 m, it is judged about its approach to the coastline. Additionally, long waves are distinguished that occur during tropical tides, which appear at the highest declination of the moon and with an increase in the inequality of tides in time and height, and arising at equatorial tides, which are observed when the declination of the moon is close to zero. An archive of the drive atmospheric pressure and hydrostatic pressure fields is formed according to urgent data in the area of ​​tropical cyclone formation according to measurements made by sensors located on drifting buoys located between the tropics. The type of cloudiness and rainfall is classified according to the results of measurements by meteorological radar stations with double polarization, microwave radiometers and altimetric meteorological satellites. According to the measurement results, zones with a baric gradient of 20-30 mb, a wind speed of 40-100 m / s, an atmospheric pressure in the center of a tropical cyclone of 900 mb or less are distinguished. Communication between drifting buoys and reference points is carried out by means of a radio meteoric communication channel. The forecast error is estimated by constructing a basic interpolation model of the kriging type. When comparing the statistical characteristics of the weather, a grid of hexanes is built in the form of equal regular hexagons, which are obtained by triangulating the sphere by the method of recursive partitioning. When making forecasts for areas affected by local weather signs, appropriate adjustments are made to the forecast values.

EFFECT: increasing the reliability of the tsunami forecast with the simultaneous expansion of the functionality of the method for determining the tsunami precursor.

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Description

The invention relates to the field of seismology, and in particular to methods for determining the precursors of tsunamis, hurricanes and tropical storms.

Known methods for determining the precursor of a tsunami (patent RU No. 22082184 [1], patent RU No. 2066467 [2], copyright certificate SU No. 1300393 [3]), including the formation of elastic vibrations, their registration, comparing them with a reference signal, determination of seismic parameters of the environment ...

The disadvantage of these methods is the need to suppress quasi-sinusoidal interference, as well as technogenic interference.

In addition, the determination of the coordinates of the hypocenter of a sea earthquake and its magnitude by means of ground seismographs is burdened by the low accuracy of measurements, which does not allow to establish with sufficient reliability the signs for assessing the possibility of a tsunami onset, since at significant distances (large sizes of the source) it is impossible to determine the nature of the bottom deformation, and a significant tsunami wave occurs only during its vertical or inclined movements.

There is also known a method for determining the danger of a tsunami (patent RU No. 22066466 [4]), including the placement in the coastal zone at a depth of more than 100 m groups of registration devices, connecting them with a communication path with ground stations for receiving and processing signals by stage-by-stage determination of the tsunami hazard. Another group of registration devices is installed at a distance of 2-4 thousand kilometers from the coast, and groups of registration devices in the coastal zone are placed at a distance that provides the necessary time to protect the protected area, determined on the basis of a formula dependence. The fact of the occurrence of a tsunami is established by signals from distant devices, and by signals from near recording devices installed in the coastal zone at a depth of more than 100 m, the degree of danger of a tsunami wave for the protected area is determined.

The step-by-step determination of the tsunami hazard in the known method [4] provides an increase in the reliability of the tsunami forecast in comparison with analogs [1-3]. However, the placement of recording devices at depths of more than 100 m limits the information content of obtaining primary signals, and as a result, reduces the reliability of the forecast, since it is known that the greatest information content of the primary signals is observed at depths of 6-10 m from the tide level, near the coast and along the continental shelves.

In addition, the direct use of the recorded signals as direct precursors of a tsunami is complicated by the presence of interference created by the noises of the marine environment of various origins (dynamic, caused by tidal movements of the water column, wind waves, turbulent flows in the water and atmosphere, rains, surf movements, etc.). as well as noise from ships and coastal technical structures. The presence of interference is also due to the effect of seismic noise, which, in addition to signals caused by tectonic shifts (earthquakes), also include signals caused by volcanic activity and the propagation of tsunamis.

In addition, noise interference can be a consequence of the processes of formation and dynamics of the ice cover, as well as the interaction of wind and underwater currents with irregularities in the ice cover, biological and thermal processes, which requires a high signal-to-noise ratio when receiving signals.

To increase the information content in the method of seismic microzoning (copyright certificate SU No. 251694 [5]), including the placement of the investigated and reference points of observation in areas with different engineering and geological conditions, registration of seismic vibrations from earthquakes from potentially dangerous and other focal zones, determination dynamic parameters of seismic vibrations and their variations in each investigated observation point relative to the reference ones in a given frequency range of studies, in addition, three-component registration of seismic vibrations is carried out along an orthogonal network of profiles oriented to potentially dangerous focal zones, with a distance between observation points not exceeding 1 / 3-1 / 4 wavelengths of the most high-frequency seismic vibrations, forming informative amplitude variations, and the distance between the profiles is 1 / 3-1 / 4 of the minimum spatial period of informative amplitude variations of the high-frequency range seismic vibrations.

However, in view of the fact that, in the general case, the magnitude of the pressure amplitudes of seismic signals depends on the magnitude of the vertical displacement of the bottom that caused the signal (determined by the product of the displacement velocity by the pulse duration); wave resistance of waters (determined by the product of the density of water by the speed of sound); the angle of refraction of the acoustic wave emerging from the bottom into the water, as well as the distance of the observation horizon from the bottom, reliable signals can be recorded at high frequencies (50-80 Hz and higher), which limits the application of the known method only when observing points are located in areas with homogeneous engineering -geological conditions, which significantly reduces the information content of this method.

The increase in information content is achieved in the known method (patent RU No. 1787273 [6]), which consists in setting regional piecewise continuous profiles, orienting them to the strike cross of the studied tectonic elements, setting transverse profiles and conducting observations on them, in which regional profiles are set in in the form of pairs of quasi-parallel piecewise-continuous profiles, and the transverse ones in the form of piecewise-continuous profiles intersecting each other, orient the transverse profiles along the strike of the studied tectonic elements, create a closed polygon around these elements, while the position of each subsequent pair of profiles is specified after obtaining data in the previous pair of profiles, and the distance between regional profiles is determined by the size of the studied tectonic elements, which increases the information content due to the possibility of studying complexly constructed environments.

However, this method has limitations in its application, since the creation of a closed polygon is burdened by the fulfillment of the requirements for ensuring high-precision coordination, which can only be ensured in land conditions.

In the known method of seismic microzoning (patent RU No. 1787276 [7]), which consists in exciting seismic vibrations by a non-explosive impulse source, registering them with seismic receivers located in areas with different engineering and geological conditions, determining the value of shear wave velocities, frequency characteristics of recorded vibrations and assessment based on these characteristics of the increment in the score, and in which increased seismic vibrations are additionally excited in comparison with the initial vibrations, and as a value characterizing the frequency response of the vibrations, a value is used that is inverse to the weighted average period in the frequency band 0.3-30 Hz, determine the increment of the score for additional excitation and introducing the magnitude of the difference in scores as a correction for nonlinear effects into the previously obtained observational data using a low-power seismic source, which increases reliability and accuracy due to more full accounting of nonlinear soil properties.

A significant disadvantage of this method is the need to create a developing stress in the soil of at least 0.1 and 5 kg / cm, which in the conditions of the seabed is a complex technical problem.

There is also known a method of seismic exploration (RU No. 1787275 [8]), which includes the excitation and registration of seismic signals by an interference system using a multiple profiling system and processing of the obtained data, in which the speed- angular spectra from the ratio of the time delay for the hodograph from double the travel time of the wave along the normal to the reflecting boundary, the removal of the explosion - the device, the effective velocity to the boundary and the angle of inclination of the boundary, according to the constructed spectra, the main seismic waves are distinguished and subsequent seismic operations are carried out on the profile for the selected parameters seismic waves by an interference recording system with an optimal directional characteristic, the parameters of which are determined from the ratio depending on the current angle, the multiplicity of the interference system, the reference signal frequency and the delay between two hodographs for the slope angles at and current angles, which improves the efficiency of seismic surveys in complex environments. However, the technical effect of this method can be obtained only in land conditions in the absence of environmental impact.

In the known method of seismic exploration (patent RU No. 1787274 [9]), including dividing a geological object into deep floors, determining the highest frequency of seismic signals coming from each floor, calculating for each deep floor a time quantization step less than 1/4 of the highest frequency seismic signal for the i-ro deep floor, and in space less than or equal to the ratio of the wavelength of the highest frequency of the seismic signal for the ir0 floor to the angle of inclination of the front of the incoming wave, excitation, reception by groups of seismic receivers, digital registration with calculated quantization steps in time and space for each submerged floor and processing the received signals, wherein for each depth of floor define comprehensive grouping length geophones on expression, in which the length of the base is equal to or less than the ratio of the seismic signal is the highest frequency wavelength for the i _th floor to the four sine of the angle of inclination of the front of the incoming wave, that allow It improves the signal-to-noise ratio at the receiving stage and improves the accuracy of the study when receiving signals.

The technical result achieved by using this method can be obtained only with a rigid binding of seismic receivers, which can only be achieved in land conditions.

In the known method for detecting the possibility of catastrophic events (patent RU No. 2030769 [10]), including measuring the parameter of the geophysical field in the controlled area and judging from the data obtained about the possibility of catastrophic events, in which measurements are made continuously, fluctuations in the measured parameter are detected and upon detection sinusoidal oscillations of increasing frequency, having an amplitude statistically significantly different from the background for the controlled area, and a period from 100 to 1,000,000 s, it is judged that there is a possibility of catastrophic events occurring, which increases the reliability of the forecast. However, the direct use of these signals as direct precursors of a tsunami is complicated by the presence of interference caused by the noises of the marine environment of various origins, in connection with which the problem arises of separating underwater seismic signals against the background of the noise of the marine environment.

There is also known a system for determining the vibrations of the water surface (patent RU No. 2319984 C2, 03/20/2008 [11]), which relates to seismic and acoustic exploration of areas covered with water, and can be used to warn of tsunami waves arising from the rise or fall significant water masses of the ocean. The known system for determining the vibrations of the water surface [11] contains microbarographs spaced at fixed distances along the coastline. Microbarographs are connected via a comparison circuit to the warning system. Additionally, the system for determining the vibrations of the water surface is equipped with a memory unit, a control point and two correlators. The technical result is to increase the reliability of determining the vibrations of the water surface, which is achieved by pairwise placement of microbarographs along the coastline. However, sea level fluctuations near the coast are distorted due to refraction, nonlinear interaction of waves with each other, scattering at irregularities along the coastline. They are influenced by wave capture and shelf resonance, bottom friction in shallow water, as well as local resonance of individual water areas (bays, fjords and ports), where tide gauges are usually installed. All this makes it difficult to separate the undistorted tsunami signal.

The widest range of signals with their subsequent processing allows you to get a more reliable forecast of the onset of catastrophic phenomena, can be obtained using the method of seismic exploration (patent RU No. 2030766 [12]), including the excitation of elastic vibrations, their registration by seismic receivers, each of which contains three sensors, located at an angle of 45 degrees to the horizontal plane, and processing the received records with the extraction of a useful signal, in which elastic waves of the P and S-type are simultaneously excited, registering! seismic receivers, each of which additionally contains a fourth sensor, while all sensors are evenly distributed in azimuth, when processing the received records, rectangular Cartesian coordinates of the total wave field vector at each receiving point are calculated by comparing the modules of Cartesian projections calculated at each receiving point with the modulus of the total vector at a given point of reception, three monotypic linearly polarized waves of the PP-, SV-, SH-type and a nonlinearly polarized wave are distinguished, which are used as a useful signal.

Registration of signals of the phase (PP), characterizing the arrival of waves associated with the propagation of compression waves in the earth's crust, and the phase (S), characterizing the secondary arrival of waves associated with the propagation of shear waves in the earth's crust, the propagation velocity of which is approximately two times less than the propagation velocity longitudinal waves, significantly increases the reliability of the prediction of the precursor of earthquakes, however, in cases where the earthquake source is close enough to the ocean floor, the hydroacoustic signals contain a T-phase, the tertiary arrival of waves, the speed of which is close to the speed of sound in water (Walker DA and Bernard EN Comparison of t-phase spectra and tsunami. Amplitudes for tsunamigenic and other earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 98, No. 7, p. 12557-12565, 1993 [13]). Underwater earthquakes, the sources of which are close enough to the surface of the ocean floor, can cause its significant vertical movements, causing gravitational waves on the water surface, which, in turn, propagating in the shallow water of the coastal zone of the ocean, can cause tsunamis (Okal E.A. Seismic parameters controlling far-field tsunami amplitudes: A review, Nat. Hazards. 1, p. 69-96, 1988 [14]). In this method, as in the known methods [1-12], the signals due to the tertiary arrival of waves are not taken into account, which significantly reduces the probability of prediction.

In a well-known method for determining tsunami precursors (patent RU No. 2292569 [15]), which includes the placement in the coastal zone and at a distance from the coastal zone of groups of signal recording devices at deep observation horizons, evenly distributed in azimuth, connecting them with a communication path with external stations reception and processing of signals by step-by-step determination of the danger of a tsunami with the determination of the dynamic parameters of seismic vibrations and their variations in each studied observation point in a given frequency range with the processing of recorded signals in the high-frequency and low-frequency ranges of seismic vibrations with the separation of signal phases characterizing the arrival of waves associated with propagation of compression waves and shear waves in the earth's crust, in which hydroacoustic signals with a T-phase are additionally recorded; registration devices are located at observation horizons, multiples of 25 m, with a maximum observation horizon equal to 100 m; determining the arrival of an acoustic wave of seismic origin by the magnitude of the frequency shift of the scattered radiation, while using the means of registration located in the near zone from the earthquake source, the analysis of the low-frequency components of the scattered signal is performed, and the noise of shipping is used as the reference quasi-harmonic high-frequency signals; by means of registration means located in the coastal zone, the moment of appearance and the direction of arrival of seismoacoustic waves are determined by narrow-band filtering and spectral analysis of waves at combination frequencies.

The set of distinctive features of this method in comparison with the known methods [1-12], which consist in the registration of hydroacoustic signals with the T-phase, the placement of signal registration devices at observation horizons, multiples of 25 m, with a maximum observation horizon equal to 100 m, determination of arrival of an acoustic wave of seismic origin according to the magnitude of the frequency shift of the scattered radiation, while by means of registration means located in the near zone from the earthquake source, the analysis of the low-frequency components of the scattered signal is performed, and the noise of navigation is used as the reference quasi-harmonic high-frequency signals, the coastal zone, the moment of appearance and the direction of arrival of seismoacoustic waves are determined by narrow-band filtering and spectral analysis of waves at combination frequencies, which significantly increases the information content due to the registration of a wider spectrum of signals by the separation of underwater seismoacoustic signals against the background of the noise of the marine environment and, as a consequence, the reliability and reliability of the forecast of the probability of a tsunami.

At the same time, the excitation of tsunami waves by earthquakes in a compressible fluid is accompanied by the generation of hydroacoustic fields in a wider frequency range, and their energy can exceed the energy of tsunami waves. In this case, low-frequency fields (f <1 Hz), like tsunami waves, are excited mainly due to vertical movements of the bottom at the epicenter of an earthquake. Excitation of high-frequency hydroacoustic fields (phase T) occurs over a much larger area and significantly depends on the bottom topography. Therefore, high-frequency hydroacoustic fields contain relatively less information on the actual shape of the bottom movement at the epicenter of an earthquake. The presence of intense low-frequency acoustic fields in the tsunami source is observed in the range 0.05-0.4 Hz, while the main energy of elastic vibrations exceeds the energy of the tsunami wave by about 300 times (Levin B.V., Nosov M.A. Tsunami Physics, M .: Janus - K, 2005.360 p. [16]).

At very low frequencies (below 0.01 Hz), due to the negligible thickness of the ocean layer compared to the wavelength, direct excitation of anemobaric waves occurs due to changes in atmospheric pressure (Rabinovich A.B. Long gravitational waves in the ocean: capture, resonance, radiation. SPb .: Gidrometeoizdat, 1993, 325 p. [17]). Part of the energy of microseisms, propagating at small angles to the vertical, is scattered in the earth in the form of body waves in accordance with the law 1 / g ² . The other part of microseisms, due to refraction or reflection from the underlying layers, returns to the upper boundary and undergoes repeated reflections and transformations of longitudinal waves into transverse waves and vice versa. In this case, surface waves of various types can be formed, which can propagate over long distances with low attenuation (the energy attenuation coefficient is proportional to 1 / g). In this case, Rayleigh, Stoneley and Love waves are formed. The speed of Rayleigh waves is always greater than the speed of sound in water. Therefore, at sufficiently high frequencies, when the wavelength in the water layer is commensurate with the depth of the ocean, part of the Rayleigh wave energy is transferred into the water. In this case, the amplitude of the waves decreases. Estimates show that the effect of the water layer at an ocean depth of 4 km begins to affect frequencies of about 0.01 Hz. At a frequency of about 0.1 Hz, the wave reflected from the surface of the liquid passes to the bottom in antiphase, i.e. the maximum suppression of the Rayleigh wave occurs. In this case, the main mode undergoes the greatest attenuation, since its antinode is located at the water-soil interface. Higher modes damp less, since there are a number of antinodes of these modes in the underlying layers. Due to the exchange of acoustic energy between the liquid and the elastic base at a sufficient depth of the ocean, a Stoneley surface wave can arise and propagate along the bottom. In this case, inhomogeneous damped waves are located along the vertical on both sides of the boundary. At an ocean depth of 4 km, Stoneley waves can form at frequencies starting from about 1 Hz, while at frequencies above 10 Hz, the limiting effect of ocean depth can be neglected. The speed of the Stoneley wave is less than the speed of waves in water and soil, so there is no energy loss due to "flowing" waves. It follows that the possible propagation of Stoneley waves along the seabed over long distances at high frequencies, in contrast to the Rayleigh waves. Love surface waves are transverse vibrations with horizontal polarization. Therefore, they cannot be directly excited by waves incident on the boundary from an aqueous medium or due to changes in anemobaric pressure. Their appearance in the composition of microseisms is associated with the transformation of Rayleigh waves n? inhomogeneities of the earth's crust, as well as with seismic emission from the crust and upper mantle.

The implementation in the known method of registering the phase m using pump waves can lead to significant difficulties in the selection of a tsunami precursor at combination frequencies in the coastal zone, due to possible manifestations of the influence of local microseismic waves.

The identified shortcomings inherent in the known methods [1-13] are deprived of the method for determining the precursors of a tsunami (application RU No. 2010116097 dated 04/29/2009 [18]), the technical result of which is to increase the reliability and reliability of forecasting the occurrence of a tsunami by registering microseismic waves.

In this case, the technical result is achieved due to the fact that in the method for determining tsunami precursors, including the placement in the coastal zone and at a distance from the coastal zone of groups of signal recording devices at deep observation horizons, evenly distributed in azimuth, their connection by a communication path with external receiving stations and signal processing by step-by-step determination of the tsunami hazard with the determination of the dynamic parameters of seismic vibrations and their variations in each studied observation point in a given frequency range with the processing of recorded signals in the high-frequency and low-frequency ranges of seismic vibrations with the separation of signal phases characterizing the arrival of waves associated with propagation in the earth's crust of compression waves and shear waves, with the registration of hydroacoustic signals with PP, S and T-phase, and the placement of recording devices on the observation horizons determine the arrival of an acoustic wave of seismic origin along the the mask of the frequency shift of the scattered radiation, while by means of registration means located in the near zone from the earthquake source, the analysis of the low-frequency components of the scattered signal is performed, and the noise of shipping is used as the reference quasi-harmonic high-frequency signals; by means of registration means located in the coastal zone, the moment of appearance and the direction of arrival of seismoacoustic waves is determined by narrow-band filtering and spectral analysis of waves, in which the separation of phases of the PP, S and T types is carried out by narrow-band filtering by means of Butterforth recursive filters, while the input filtering is carried out by means of recursive filters with integer coefficients, and signals with a sampling frequency of 100 Hz and below are filtered with coefficients in the form of floating point numbers; the registration of hydroacoustic signals is carried out by means of broadband bottom seismographs with at least three seismic channels, while the signals are analyzed by three independent detectors, and the detection signal is generated when the alarm signals coincide in at least two of the three channels; spectral analysis is performed both for bulk waves of the PP and S phases, and for surface waves of Love, Rayleigh and Stoneley.

A set of distinctive features, consisting in the fact that the selection of phases of the PP, S and T types is carried out by narrow-band filtering by means of recursive Butterforth filters, while the input filtering is carried out by means of recursive filters with integer coefficients, and signals with a sampling frequency of 100 Hz and below are filtered with coefficients in the form of floating point numbers; the registration of hydroacoustic signals is carried out by means of broadband bottom seismographs with at least three seismic channels, while the signals are analyzed by three independent detectors, and the detection signal is generated when the alarm signals coincide in at least two of the three channels; Spectral analysis is performed both for bulk waves of the PP and S phases, and for surface waves of Love, Rayleigh and Stoneley, which makes it possible to increase the reliability and reliability of forecasting the occurrence of a tsunami due to the registration and subsequent processing of all registered seismic waves, including microseismic waves of various origins.

However, in the problems of taking into account the influence of catastrophic phenomena caused by underwater earthquakes, a very significant factor is the establishment of the occurrence of a tsunami wave, which cannot be solved by a known method.

This problem is solved in a well-known technical solution (patent RU No. 2457514С1, 27.07.2012 [19]), which makes it possible to increase the reliability and reliability of forecasting the occurrence of tsunami waves during underwater earthquakes.

The problem posed, in the known method for determining the tsunami precursor [19], including the placement of groups of devices for recording seismic signals at deep observation horizons in the coastal zone and at a distance from it in order to gradually determine the danger of a tsunami, connecting them with a communication path with external receiving and processing stations seismic signals, registration of seismic signals, in which the recording devices are placed at depth observation horizons, multiples of 25 m, with a maximum observation horizon equal to 100 m, uniformly distributed in azimuth, seismic signals are recorded with the separation of phases of the PP, S and T types, arrival an acoustic wave of seismic origin is determined by the magnitude of the frequency shift of the scattered radiation, while the low-frequency components of the scattered signal are analyzed by means of recording devices located at a distance from the coastal zone, using quasi-harmonic high-frequency stationary signals, the noise of shipping, and by means of recording devices located in the coastal zone, the moment of appearance and direction of arrival of seismic waves is determined by narrow-band filtering and spectral analysis of waves, the separation of phases of the PP, S and T types is carried out by narrow-band filtering by means of recursive Butterforth filters, while input filtering is carried out by means of recursive filters with integer coefficients, and signals with a sampling frequency of 100 Hz and below are filtered with coefficients in the form of floating point numbers; registration of seismic signals is carried out by means of broadband bottom seismographs with at least three seismic channels, while the signals are analyzed by three independent detectors, and the detection signal is generated when the alarm signals coincide in at least two of the three channels; spectral analysis is performed both for bulk waves of the phases PP and S, and for surface waves of Love, Rayleigh and Stoneley; it is solved due to the fact that by means of seismographs the coordinates of the hypocenter of a sea earthquake and its magnitude, with an earthquake magnitude of more than 6 at the interface - water surface, additionally record the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, pressure gradient of electrical discharges in the atmosphere, frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere, determine the correlation coefficient for the measured values of the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, baric gradient of electrical discharges in the atmosphere, the frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere, according to which the possibility of a tsunami wave is estimated.

This method is based on the fact that the speed of propagation of seismic waves is much greater than the speed of tsunami waves. Ground seismographs are used to determine the coordinates of the sea earthquake hypocenter and its magnitude.

Since the appearance of a tsunami wave is characterized by such signs as:

- abnormally increased audibility of sounds in the air (1 Hz / s, up to 60 Hz);

- a sharp drop in atmospheric pressure within 6-12 hours;

- increase in absolute humidity by 2 mm in 4 hours;

- electrical discharges in the atmosphere have a large baric gradient, of the order of 20-30 Mbar;

- an increase in wind speed (Navigator's Handbook. Edited by V.D.Shandabylov. M. Military Publishing House. 1968. p. 362-365), then along the route of the possible movement of the tsunami wave, by means of measuring instruments placed on the means of registration (buoy stations ) record such parameters as the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, baric gradient of electrical discharges in the atmosphere, frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere, determine the correlation coefficient for the measured values of the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, baric gradient of electrical discharges in the atmosphere, the frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere, according to which the possibility of a tsunami wave is estimated.

However, along with the significant advantages of the known method for determining the tsunami precursor [19], there is also a significant drawback, which consists in the fact that seismic instruments issue a tsunami warning within 5-10 minutes after the end of the earthquake, but the signals recorded at the same time do not allow obtaining a specific information about the size and coverage of the wave. This operation can take more than 20 minutes. In addition, sea (ocean) level changes occur not only in the presence of a tsunami wave, but also during tropical and equatorial tides caused by tropical cyclones, which can lead to an ambiguous forecast.

At the same time, tropical cyclones in the oceanic regions between the tropics have a large baric gradient (20-30 mb), high wind speeds (40-60, and sometimes up to 100 m / s), relatively small transverse dimensions (100-300 miles), exceptionally low pressure in the center (900 mb and less) - Navigator's Handbook, edited by V.D. Shandabylov. Military publishing house of the USSR Ministry of Defense. M., 1968, p. 362-365. The centers of origin of tropical cyclones are located in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Pacific Ocean (east of the Philippine Islands), the South China Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the southern Indian Ocean (around the island of Mauritius).

The paths of tropical cyclones are practically constant (with rare exceptions), the speed of their movement is 10-12uz. Some tropical cyclones have loop-like trajectories.

The weather in the zone of tropical cyclones is characterized by hurricane force winds of thick black cumulonimbus clouds, heavy showers, thunderstorms, cirrus clouds in the upper layers of the cyclone are carried several hundred miles from the center of the cyclone, there is a calm area in the center of the cyclone (no more than 10 miles in diameter), the clouds are thinning and sometimes you can see the blue sky ("eye of the storm").

Signs of a tropical cyclone approaching are the appearance of a swell from the direction not coinciding with the direction of the wind, a rapid drop in atmospheric pressure, the appearance of cirrus clouds, and then on the horizon of storm clouds, suffocating weather, calm, frequent and strong electrical discharges in the atmosphere, an increase in wind speed.

Tropical tides occur at the highest declination of the moon. With tropical tides, the inequality of tides in time and altitude increases. Equatorial tides are observed when the declination of the moon is close to zero (Handbook of the Officer of the Watch, edited by A.P. Pronichkin, Military Publishing House of the USSR Ministry of Defense, Moscow, 1975, p. 301).

Therefore, for a reliable forecast, it is necessary to analyze the long waves generated by tsunamis and tropical cyclones.

The task of the proposed technical solution is to increase the reliability of the tsunami forecast while simultaneously expanding the functionality of the method for determining the tsunami precursor. At the same time, the method of determining the tsunami precursor was chosen as a prototype [19].

The task is solved due to the fact that in the method of detecting the possibility of the onset of catastrophic phenomena, including the determination of the tsunami precursor, including the placement of groups of seismic signal recording devices at deep observation horizons in the coastal zone and at a distance from it in order to gradually determine the danger of a tsunami , connecting them with a communication path with external stations for receiving and processing seismic signals, recording seismic signals, in which recording devices are placed at depth observation horizons, multiples of 25 m, with a maximum observation horizon equal to 100 m, uniformly distributed in azimuth, seismic signals are recorded with the separation of phases of the PP, S and T types, the arrival of an acoustic wave of seismic origin is determined by the magnitude of the frequency shift of the scattered radiation, while the low-frequency sos are analyzed by means of recording devices located at a distance from the coastal zone detecting the scattered signal, using as reference quasi-harmonic high-frequency signals, the noise of shipping, and by means of recording devices located in the coastal zone, determine the moment of appearance and direction of arrival of seismic waves by narrow-band filtering and spectral analysis of waves, the separation of phases of the PP, S and T types is carried out narrow-band filtering by means of recursive Butterforth filters, while the input filtering is carried out by means of recursive filters with integer coefficients, and signals with a sampling frequency of 100 Hz and below are filtered with coefficients in the form of floating point numbers; registration of seismic signals is carried out by means of broadband bottom seismographs with at least three seismic channels, while the signals are analyzed by three independent detectors, and the detection signal is generated when the alarm signals coincide in at least two of the three channels; spectral analysis is performed both for bulk waves of the phases PP and S, and for surface waves of Love, Rayleigh and Stoneley; it is solved due to the fact that by means of seismographs the coordinates of the hypocenter of a sea earthquake and its magnitude, with an earthquake magnitude of more than 6 at the interface - water surface, additionally record the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, pressure gradient of electrical discharges in the atmosphere, frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere, determine the correlation coefficient for the measured values of the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, baric gradient of electrical discharges in the atmosphere, the frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere, according to which the possibility of a tsunami wave is estimated, in which, unlike the prototype [19], long waves in the range of 4-28 Hz are additionally distinguished, phase velocities which vary in the range of 350-700 m / s, distinguish free gravitational waves excited by seismic surface waves by the difference in phase velocities, which serve as a signal about the approach of a tsunami when a tsunami wave is detected in the open ocean up to 1 m high and moving at a speed of 500-700 km / hour measure the speed and height of this wave, by changing the speed up to 30-60 km and an increase in wave height up to 30-40 m, they judge its approach to the coastline, additionally highlight long waves that occur during tropical tides, which are manifested at the greatest declination of the Moon and with an increase in the inequality of tides in time and altitude, and arising from equatorial tides, which are observed when the declination of the Moon is close to zero, form an archive of the fields of near-zero atmospheric pressure and hydrostatic pressure according to urgent data in the area of formation of tropical cyclones, according to measurements performed by meteorological radar stations with dual polarization, CB H - radiometers and altimetric meteorological satellites classify the type of cloudiness and rainfall, according to the results of measurements by means of sensors placed on drifting buoys located between the tropics, zones with a baric gradient of 20-30 mb, a wind speed of 40-100 m / s, atmospheric pressure in the center of a tropical cyclone 900 mb or less, characterized by an intense change in the difference between the air temperature, which has a trend towards a decrease in temperature and the temperature of the water surface, which has a trend towards an increase in temperature: at depths up to 60 m in the center of a tropical cyclone, the connection between drifting buoys and reference points are carried out by means of a radio meteoric communication channel, the forecast error is estimated by building a basic interpolation model of the kriging type, when comparing the statistical characteristics of the weather, a grid of hexanes is built in the form of equal regular hexagons, which are obtained by triangulating a sphere using the recursive method division, when making forecasts for areas subject to the influence of local weather signs, make appropriate adjustments to the predictive values, additionally create a full-format matrix of risks and damage to economic facilities based on the criteria of unfavorable conditions and data on the accident rate of infrastructure elements and objects by means of statistical and econometric modeling ...

The method is implemented as follows.

As in the prototype, the means for recording seismic signals are placed, which are broadband bottom seismographs directly at the water - soil boundary in the coastal zone and at a distance from the coastal zone, as well as at different depth horizons, using for the installation of autonomous bottom stations, underwater observatories, anchored platforms. Broadband seismographs such as EKhP-17 and EKhP-20 are analogous to broadband seismographs.

Stationary or drifting buoys of various designs can be used as carriers for measuring the necessary hydrometeorological parameters (Lobkovsky L.I. et al. Geoecological monitoring of offshore oil and gas areas. Science. M., 2005, pp. 77-82, patents RU # 2304794 C2 . 20.08.2007, No. 2328757С2, 10.07.2008, No. 2432589 С1, 20.08.2013) and equipped with meters of wind speed and direction, sea level, humidity, sea water and air temperature, atmospheric and hydrostatic pressure, electrical conductivity, as well as meteorological radar stations with dual polarization and microwave radiometers (patent RU No. 2574167 C1, 02/10/2016), allowing to classify the type of cloudiness and rainfall, as well as altimetric meteorological satellites.

At coastal stations, broadband seismographs such as "G. Streckeisen messgeratebau" (Switzerland) and "Guralp" (England), such as STS-1 and CMG-3, are installed. registration of seismic signals with separation of phases of the pp, s type, and t at the same time recording seismic noise at frequencies of 0.008-20 Hz, hydrodynamic sea noise at frequencies of 0.01-100 Hz, tsunami wave pressure on the bottom at frequencies of 0.01-0 , 01 Hz.

The T-phase signal received in the coastal wedge is determined in the frequency range 34-75 Hz at a quantization frequency of 160 Hz by the pseudodifferential parabolic equation method, which provides the separation of sound fields in a two-dimensional inhomogeneous ocean with variable bottom topography and sound velocity profile with a given accuracy for any range grazing angles of local normal waves, taking into account the interaction between them. Since the observed signal s (t) is the sum of signals from sequentially excited layers, then, representing the signal as a vector of a column of time samples and denoting column vectors of signals from sequentially excited layers _{by s j , we have s (s 1} , s ₂ , ... s _n ), (a ₁ , a ₂ , ... a _n ), a _i - are the amplitudes of the scatterers. The sum of the squares of the amplitudes that has the maximum value for the signal of the expected structure is used as the decisive statistic. The estimate is obtained by the least squares method, since the system of linear equations is uncertain. Performing an estimate for each point in time, its time dependence is obtained. The presence of a maximum in it means the presence in the source of the expected structure of the excitation of the sound field. When plotting the decision statistics, the abscissa of the global maximum corresponds to the time of arrival of the aggregate scattered signal.

The arrival of an acoustic wave of seismic origin is determined by the magnitude of the frequency shift of the scattered radiation, while by means of registration means located in the near zone from the earthquake source at external stations for receiving and processing signals, the analysis of the low-frequency components of the scattered signal is performed, and noise is used as the reference quasi-harmonic high-frequency signals navigation, and by means of registration means located in the coastal zone, the moment of appearance and direction of arrival of seismoacoustic waves is determined by means of narrow-band filtering and spectral analysis. The selection of phases of the PP, S and T types is carried out by narrow-band filtering using recursive Butterforth filters, while the input filtering is carried out by means of recursive filters with integer coefficients, and signals with a sampling frequency of 100 Hz and below are filtered with coefficients in the form of floating point numbers. Seismic signals are recorded by means of broadband bottom seismographs with at least three seismic channels, while the signals are analyzed by three independent detectors, and a detection signal is generated when alarms coincide in at least two of the three channels.

Spectral analysis is performed both for bulk waves of the PP and S phases, and for surface waves of Love, Rayleigh and Stoneley.

When registering seismic signals at the bottom, one of the important areas of using broadband bottom seismographs is the study of microseismic noises generated by sea and ocean waves; microseisms appear in a wide frequency range and serve as a natural background that determines the sensitivity threshold of seismographs. In this case, the registration of characteristic microseisms with a period of about 6 seconds is also performed, microseisms with periods of 20 and 100 seconds are also detected, which makes it possible to distinguish both bulk P and S waves, and surface Love waves (oscillations in the frequency range 0.0125-0.05 Hz), Rayleigh and Stoneley (1-1 Hz).

Further, in the event of a catastrophic earthquake (with a magnitude of 6 to 8), the bottom stations, using strong motion sensors, register the elements of the bottom movement and, using a hydroacoustic communication channel, transmit information to a group of recording devices located on the water surface, made in the form of surface buoys and through satellite or radio communication channels to external stations for receiving information.

Signals of seismic origin are recorded using broadband seismographs with a frequency range from thousandths of a hertz to tens of hertz, which are now ubiquitous as the main instrument of seismological research (Rykov A.V. Modeling a seismometer // Moscow: OIFZ RAS, 1995.87 S. Usher MJ, RF Burch, C. Gurlap. Wide-band feedback seismometers // phys. earth planet, interiors. 1979. v. 18, p. 38-50. Wielandt E., Stein IM A digital very-broad band seismograph // Annales geophysical. 1986. v.4. p. 227-232). with the help of these devices, signals of both local and remote earthquakes are recorded and the coordinates of the earthquake epicenter are determined by frequency conversion of the received hydroacoustic signal in the measuring channel.

The group of recording devices is represented by drifting buoys equipped with hydroacoustic and satellite communication channels, seismic sensors of hydrophone and geophonic type, measuring sensors of atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, baric gradient of electrical discharges, wind speed and direction, speed, direction and height of sea waves, frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere.

An analogue of a drifting buoy is a device that consists of a cylindrical body, a mast with a transmitting device for transmitting information, a wind meter, an atmospheric pressure meter with a baroport, air and water temperature sensors, a beacon, a radar corner reflector, a control module with an optional GPS unit, information memory unit, a central module with a controller, a wave height meter and buoy orientation, a flow velocity and direction sensor, sensors for determining salinity, conductivity, turbidity, oxygen content, pH ion content, a controller for oxidation / reduction processes, a power source (patent RU # 2328757 ).

Due to the fact that the design of the drifting buoy is determined based on the requirements of the functional purpose, which consists in the possibility of a more accurate determination of the wave parameters, in particular the height and period of the waves, as well as on the basis of the requirement that the measured information is reliably transmitted via the satellite radio channel in the presence of rolling, that allows to exclude measurement errors in changing weather conditions of registration of measured signals. In addition, the average phase velocity of wave propagation and the average wavelength at all stages of the development of the wave process from its inception to its complete attenuation are determined by measuring the displacement of the sea surface elevations in three directions and then constructing a dynamic-stochastic model of a moving sea wave surface in space-time interval.

The measuring circuit of a drifting buoy includes a control module with an optional GPS unit, an information memory unit, a central module with a controller, a wave height and buoy orientation meter, a flow velocity and direction sensor, a salinity sensor, a conductivity sensor, a water turbidity sensor, an oxygen content sensor, pH ion content sensor, oxidation / reduction process controller, power supply, air and sea water temperature measuring sensors, wind parameters meter, atmospheric pressure sensor with baroport, hydrophone and geophone, hydroacoustic communication channel.

The central module with the controller includes a built-in 8-channel 16-bit ADC of the AD 7715 type with external inputs for connecting sensors, an autonomous supply voltage monitoring system, an internal temperature sensor based on a silicon diode pn junction, two comparators with a programmable reference voltage, a multiplexer, serial interface of RS-232 standard, three timers providing frequency measurement relative to the reference crystal oscillator, and is a processor with separate 14-bit command bus and 8-bit data bus. The two-stage converter allows the execution of up to 35 instructions in one machine cycle. The analogue is the PJC 14000 microprocessor.

The central module organizes the measurement mode of hydrophysical parameters, processes the measurement results, generates exchange signals with external devices and a data packet in a given format, stores it in memory for subsequent transmission via a satellite communication channel to external receiving stations.

The main functions that determine the operation algorithm of the central module are sequential switching on of the power supply and polling of the output signals of the primary sensors in accordance with a given program, averaging the measurement results for each channel in accordance with the specified time intervals, introducing corrections to the measurement results, taking into account the ADC zero drift, deviation characteristics of transformation from the original, temperature dependence of the characteristics of sensors with the presentation of data in the form of conditional codes, reduction of conditional codes of measured values to physical values of hydrometeorological parameters in accordance with the data processing algorithm with the established calibration coefficients of sensors, recording and storage of the received data in the buffer memory of the microprocessor, formation messages of the established format for transmission to the satellite communication channel. The software includes a powerful microassembler, in-system and debug emulators, a universal programmer and a compiler.

In the event of a catastrophic earthquake (with a magnitude of about 8), the bottom stations, using strong motion sensors, register the elements of the bottom movement and, using a hydroacoustic communication channel, transmit information to the surface buoy and via satellite or radio communication channels to ground control points.

By means of sensors placed on drifting buoys, they record the frequency of sound in the air, which increases by 1 Hz / s upon the occurrence and propagation of a tsunami wave, the speed and direction of the wind, the speed, direction and height of sea waves, atmospheric pressure, air humidity, baric gradient of electric discharges in the air and via a satellite communication channel are transmitted to ground control points, where the analysis of recorded signals, including seismic signals, is performed.

When a tendency to an increase in the audibility of sounds in the air, wind speed, speed and height of sea waves, an increase in absolute humidity (by 2 mm in 4 hours) and the appearance of an atmosphere of electric discharges with a baric gradient of the order of 20-30 mbar are detected, graphs of changes are plotted at external receiving stations , recorded parameters in time, determine the correlation coefficients and make judgments about the possibility of a tsunami wave and the route of its movement.

Additionally, long waves are distinguished in the range of 4-28 Hz, phase velocities of which vary in the range of 350-700 m / s. Further, free gravitational waves excited by seismic surface waves are distinguished by the difference in phase velocities, which serve as a signal about the approach of a tsunami. When a tsunami wave is detected in the open ocean up to 1 m high and moving at a speed of 500-700 km / h, the speed and height of this wave are measured, by changing the speed up to 30-60 km and an increase in wave height up to 30-40 m, it is judged that it is approaching coastline. Additionally, long waves are distinguished that occur during tropical tides, which appear at the highest declination of the moon and with an increase in the inequality of tides in time and height, and arising at equatorial tides, which are observed when the declination of the moon is close to zero. An archive of fields of atmospheric pressure and hydrostatic pressure is formed according to urgent data in the area of formation of tropical cyclones. Measurements are made, according to the measurement results of which, by means of meteorological radar stations with double polarization, microwave radiometers and altimetric meteorological satellites, the type of cloudiness and rainfall is classified.

According to the results of measurements by means of sensors placed on drifting buoys located between the tropics, zones with a baric gradient of 20-30 mb, a wind speed of 40-100 m / s, atmospheric pressure in the center of a tropical cyclone of 900 mb and less are distinguished, characterized by an intense change in the difference between the air temperature, which has a trend towards a decrease in temperature; and the temperature of the water surface, which has a trend towards an increase in temperature at depths of up to 60 m in the center of a tropical cyclone. Communication between drifting buoys and reference points is carried out by means of a radio meteoric communication channel. Evaluate> forecast errors. When making forecasts for areas affected by local weather signs, appropriate adjustments are made to the forecast values. Additionally, a full-format matrix of risks and damage to economic facilities is created based on the criteria of unfavorable conditions and data on the accident rate of infrastructure elements and objects by means of statistical and econometric modeling.

The entire array of measured hydrometeorological characteristics goes to the main situational center for a given region, which ensures the receipt, processing, registration, display and delivery to consumers of the following information: hydrometeorological parameters of the environment; meteorological information from meteorological artificial satellites (MISS) such as "Meteor", "NOAA" in the form of images of the underlying surface and cloud cover of the Earth; facsimile and telegraph information from radio meteorological centers (RMC). Hardware and software devices provide measurement, calculation, display and registration of the following hydrometeorological parameters of the environment: apparent wind speed (for a drifting platform); the direction of the apparent wind (for a drifting platform); true wind speed; true wind direction; atmospheric pressure; air temperature; relative air humidity; the height of the cloud base; meteorological (optical) visibility range; reception, processing and display of hydrometeorological information received from the MISZ of the type "Meteor", "NOAA" in the international analog format APT, facsimile and telegraph information from the RMC, received in the FAX and RTTY formats. The error in the development of parameters is given in the table

The update period of the displayed information about the current values of the parameters of the apparent and true wind, atmospheric pressure, air temperature and humidity, the height of the cloud base and the meteorological (optical) visibility range does not exceed 5 s.

Simultaneously with the performed measurements, information is received from meteorological satellites of the Earth, radio meteorological centers and meteorological radars.

Measured and received information from external information sources is processed. When processing information received from several meteorological radars, the meteorological potential for each station is determined. By means of meteorological potential, different radars can be compared in terms of their effectiveness for meteorological observations. At the same time, the greater the potential, the better the station is adapted for meteorological observations (Brylev GB, Gashina SB., Nizdominoga GD Radar characteristics of clouds and precipitation. - L .: Gidrometeoizdat, 1986. - 231 p .. [ 39]). When processing the information received from the radars, the information received from the central station radar, which has a greater potential, is taken as a reference, with respect to which the subsequent processing is performed. The speed, direction and duration of the wind are recorded at at least three high-altitude echelons of 3-40 m, 30-450 m (by direct measurements using sensors), 0.5-400 km (indirectly by processing information received from weather radars.

The measured parameters are applied to meteorological maps obtained from external sources of information. Seasonal parameters obtained for long-term observations in a given area and stored in the ROM of the processor unit are plotted on the same maps. At the same time, the error of predictive values is estimated by building a basic interpolation model of the kriging type. When comparing the statistical characteristics of the weather, a grid of hexanes is built in the form of equal regular hexagons, which are obtained by triangulating a sphere using the method of recursive partitioning; when making forecasts for areas affected by local weather signs, an appropriate correction is made in the predictive values. Next, the estimation of the error of the predictive values is carried out. The estimation of the error of predictive values is performed in accordance with the dependencies (1-5), based on the fact that the main tool for the quantitative description of variability in geostatistics is a semivariogram, a statistical two-point moment of the second order.

Since the semivariogram is an analytical function that describes the spatial correlation structure of the data, in practice this function is estimated by smoothing the "experimental" semivariogram γ (r) by N point measurements using the formula (Demyanov V.V. Geostatics: theory and practice. M. : Science, 2010 - 327 s):

where r is the distance from the point of measurement x, Z is the value of the measurement. This function characterizes the degree of difference between the data depending on the distance between them. The closer the data values (the smaller the difference between them), the larger the semivariogram value.

The basic interpolation model for discrete observations of geostatistics is kriging (Krige DG A statistical approach to some basic mine valuation problems on the Witwatersrand // J. of the Chem., Metal, and Mining Soc. Of South Africa. - 1951. - Vol. 52. - p. 119-139).

There are several variants of kriging models (simple, ordinary, universal, lognormal, residuals, etc.), which differ in the accepted assumptions and the information used about the modeled variable. Kriging uses the semivariogram as the main parameter and is the basis of all methods related to geostatistics - interpolation, probabilistic mapping, stochastic modeling.

от неизвестной функции Z(x) заданной в некотором объеме V по ее N измерениям Z_i (i=1, …, N). Формально это можно записать в видеThe solution to the kriging problem is most simply described as the solution to the problem of finding some linear functional

from the unknown function Z (x) given in a certain volume V by its N dimensions Z _i (i = 1,…, N). Formally, this can be written as

, где λ_i - факторы взвешивания. По договоренности звездочка в геостатистической литературе используется для обозначения оценочного значения как противопоставление действительному, но неизвестному значению. Решение (3) предполагает определение лучшего способа выбора факторов взвешивания. В кригинге веса выбираются такие, чтобы оценка была несмещенной, то есть, чтобы математическое ожидание E удовлетворяло условию:To estimate Y, we write the weighted average over the measurement in the form

, where λ _i - weighing factors. By convention, an asterisk is used in geostatistical literature to denote an estimated value as opposed to an actual but unknown value. Solution (3) involves determining the best way to select weighing factors. In kriging, weights are chosen such that the estimate is unbiased, that is, so that the mathematical expectation E satisfies the condition:

and with minimal variance:

where Var is the sample variance symbol. The actual evaluation of expression (5) is called kriging error.

An analysis is performed for the content of anomalous values characterizing hazardous phenomena by constructing a semi-empirical model of fluctuations in the level of currents and waves depending on the speed, direction and duration of the wind. In this case, the verification of the semi-empirical model is performed on the basis of long-term hydrometeorological observations for a specific area.

When predicting dangerous and especially dangerous phenomena, according to the obtained measurement results, maps of the distribution of additive readings are built and the phenomena characterized by the distribution of anomalous values of additive indicators are identified.

Data exchange units are made in the formats of GSM - communication, satellite communication and meteor communication in the VHF range.

Meteor radio communication in the VHF range is based on the phenomenon of reflection of radio waves from ionized traces left by micrometeors when entering the Earth's atmosphere with their subsequent decomposition. The number of meteors entering the earth's atmosphere, on average, is a fairly constant value, due to which disturbances arising in the ionosphere ensure the continuity of information data transmission through this communication channel. The height of the reflecting meteor layer from the Earth's surface is 80-150 km. Taking into account the curvature of the earth's surface and the height of the meteor layer, the range of the reflected VHF radio signal reaches 2000 km.

Meteor communication facilities provide increased, in comparison with short-wave radio communication, stability against ionospheric disturbances of natural as well as artificial origin, the absence of "dead zones" within the entire support zone; increased, in comparison with other types of communication, noise immunity; simplicity of building a data transmission system from remote unattended facilities; lower requirements for the quality of power consumption; comparatively low cost of equipment and high economic indicators of the functioning of the meteoric communication system according to the criterion of efficiency / cost for hard-to-reach areas and areas with poorly developed infrastructure.

"Meteor mode", which uses the effect of radio waves reflection from the Earth's meteoric layer, is the main one in this communication system. Simultaneously with it, this system can operate in the direct mode of an unreflected "surface wave" at distances up to 100 km above the earth's surface (without repeaters) and up to 300 km above water areas (depending on the salinity of the water). With the use of repeaters, the spatial coverage of this type of communication can be increased many times over. Experimental samples of meteoric communication equipment were also tested on the "radio beacon - base station" line, while the distances for mutual continuous communication with a surface wave of 120 km (not the limiting distance) were obtained. The system for organizing communication via the meteor channel in the VHF range includes for each head (master) station up to 128 slave stationary or mobile (mobile) stations within a radius of up to 1800-2000 km. In turn, all slave stations in such a system have the ability to provide VHF communication with each other with a surface wave within a radius of up to 80-100 km on land and up to 200-300 km at sea. In the proposed version of information interaction, the functions of slave mobile (mobile) stations operating in the VHF surface wave mode will be performed by transit vessels equipped with conventional ECDIS equipment. The mobile hydrometeorological and base stations are equipped with telecommunication equipment of the WiMAX network, which provides connections between base stations and mobile objects via broadband radio access. The dispatch station is installed permanently at a reference point with known geographical coordinates and contains a Geographic Information System (GIS), equipment for time synchronization of the navigation equipment of artificial Earth satellites with equipment of the WiMAX network, as well as an information processing unit with software that ensures the joint operation of navigation equipment of artificial satellites Earths and WiMAX networks, while the GLONASS global navigation satellite system is used as artificial earth satellites. When implementing the proposed method, reliable registration and classification of tsunamigenic earthquakes and the origin of tropical cyclones is ensured, which makes it possible to give timely (within a few minutes) warning of the danger of tsunamis and tropical cyclones.

Information sources

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Claims (1)

A method for detecting the possibility of a tsunami onset, including the placement of groups of devices for recording seismic signals at deep observation horizons in the coastal zone and at a distance from it in order to gradually determine the danger of a tsunami, connecting them with a communication path with external stations for receiving and processing seismic signals, recording seismic signals, in which the recording devices are placed at depth observation horizons, multiples of 25 m, with a maximum observation horizon equal to 100 m, uniformly distributed in azimuth, seismic signals are recorded with the separation of phases of the PP, S and T types, the arrival of an acoustic wave of seismic origin is determined by the value frequency shift of the scattered radiation, while by means of recording devices located at a distance from the coastal zone, the analysis of the low-frequency components of the scattered signal is carried out, using the noise of sudokho as reference high-frequency quasi-harmonic signals and by means of recording devices located in the coastal zone, the moment of appearance and direction of arrival of seismic waves is determined by narrow-band filtering and spectral analysis of waves, the separation of phases of the PP, S and T types is carried out by narrow-band filtering by means of Butterforth recursive filters, while the input filtering is carried out by means of recursive filters with integer coefficients, and signals with a sampling frequency of 100 Hz and below are filtered with coefficients in the form of floating point numbers, seismic signals are recorded by means of broadband bottom seismographs with at least three seismic channels, while the signals are analyzed by three independent detectors , and the detection signal is generated when alarms coincide in at least two of the three channels, spectral analysis is performed as bulk waves of the phases PP and S, and surface waves of Love, Rayleigh and Stoneley, using seismographs to determine coordinates of the hypocenter of a sea earthquake and its magnitude are obtained, with an earthquake magnitude of more than 6, by means of a group of recording devices located at the atmosphere-water surface, additionally registering the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, baric gradient of electric discharges in the atmosphere, the frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere, the correlation coefficient is determined for the measured values of the speed and direction of wind and sea waves, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, baric gradient of electrical discharges in the atmosphere, the frequency of sound waves in the atmosphere, according to which the possibility of the appearance of a tsunami wave is assessed, characterized by that additionally distinguish long waves in the range of 4-28 Hz, the phase velocities of which vary in the range of 350-700 m / s, allocate free gravitational waves excited by seismic surface waves by the difference in phase velocities, which serve as a signal about n When a tsunami approaches, when a tsunami wave is detected in the open ocean up to 1 m high and moving at a speed of 500-700 km / h, the speed and height of this wave are measured, by changing the speed up to 30-60 km and an increase in the wave height up to 30-40 m its approach to the coastline, additionally distinguish long waves arising from tropical tides, which appear at the highest declination of the moon and with an increase in the inequality of tides in time and height, and arising at equatorial tides, which are observed when the declination of the moon is close to zero, form an archive fields of near atmospheric pressure and hydrostatic pressure according to urgent data in the area of formation of tropical cyclones according to measurements, according to the results of measurements made by meteorological radar stations with double polarization, microwave radiometers and altimetric meteorological satellites classify the type of cloudiness and rainfall, according to the results of measurements by sensors , size found on drifting buoys located between the tropics, there are zones with a baric gradient of 20-30 mb, a wind speed of 40-100 m / s, atmospheric pressure in the center of a tropical cyclone of 900 mb or less, characterized by an intense change in the difference between the air temperature, which has a trend in the side of the temperature drop, and the temperature of the water surface, which has a trend towards an increase in temperature at depths of up to 60 m in the center of a tropical cyclone, communication between drifting buoys and control points is carried out through a radio meteoric communication channel, an assessment of the forecast error is performed, when making forecasts for areas prone to the influence of local weather signs, make appropriate adjustments to the forecast values.