JP4493017B2 - Method, apparatus and program for correcting energy system operation plan corresponding to parameter change - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a method, apparatus, and program for correcting an operation plan of an energy system once created. More specifically, the present invention relates to an energy system including a plurality of energy devices such as a cogeneration device such as a turbine generator and a fuel cell, a boiler device, an electric refrigerator, and an absorption refrigerator, and the predicted parameter value. Method and apparatus for correcting the operation plan of the energy system once created based on the above when the deviation between the predicted parameter value and the actually measured parameter value becomes clear and without impairing the target when the operation plan is formulated And program.

  FIG. 1 shows an example of a general energy system configuration and an example of energy flow. This energy system uses a fuel such as gas, kerosene, or diesel as a power source, and outputs cogeneration devices such as a turbine generator, an engine generator, or a fuel cell that simultaneously output electric power and heat, and gas, kerosene, diesel, etc. It has a boiler device that outputs heat using fuel as a power source, an electric refrigerator that outputs cold using electric power as a power source, and an absorption refrigerator that outputs cold using hot heat as a power source. The components of the energy system are also called energy devices. In this energy system, commercial power purchased from an electric power company, for example, a shortage of output power of a cogeneration device that does not cover the power and power demand required to operate an electric refrigerator with the power output by the cogeneration device. (It is also called purchased power.) Warm heat is output from the cogeneration apparatus and the boiler apparatus, and this heat is sent to a condensing refrigerator and a heat exchanger that covers the heat demand (for example, including hot water supply). In the absorption refrigerator, cold energy is generated using the given heat. Absorption refrigerators and electric refrigerators serve the demand for cooling. The excess heat is discarded, for example, through a cooling tower.

  The operation plan of this energy system is prepared in advance before the actual operation so as to satisfy the demands of electric power, cold heat, and heat and achieve the lowest cost in accordance with the set target. For example, Patent Documents 1 to 6 disclose conventional techniques for preparing an optimal operation plan for various systems in advance. The operation plan of the energy system is created using parameters including a certain amount of predicted values. This is because, in order to formulate an operation plan before actual operation, predicted values must be used for demands for electric power, cold energy, and thermal energy. In order to formulate the operation plan with the lowest cost, electricity charges and fuel charges such as gas, kerosene or diesel are also used as parameters. It is based on the assumption that it is constant. By inputting these parameters based on the predicted values into a computer that implements a simulation that simulates the optimization calculation based on mathematical programming and the operation of the energy system, each predicted demand for power, cooling, and heat The output value of each energy device satisfying the above and the lowest cost is calculated by the computer. In this way, each energy device is operated based on the output value of each energy device calculated in advance in the operation plan.

Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2001-211696 JP-A-8-249005 JP 2000-105019 A JP2003-16374 JP2003-111275A JP 2003-216205 A

  However, the parameter values used for the energy system operation plan are based on predictions, and in particular, the demands for power, cooling, and heat can change from moment to moment, so a deviation from the actual values is inevitable. In addition, it is considered that rate parameters such as electricity rates will change from moment to moment in the future, and it is expected that there may be a difference from the time of planning. In the prior arts of Patent Documents 1 to 6, no consideration is given to how to adjust the output value of each energy device for this deviation.

  Optimization based on mathematical programming using actual input parameter values when actual input parameter values become clear, such as on the day of operation, in order to eliminate the gap between the predicted value and actual value It is conceivable to re-execute an energy system operation plan by re-executing a simulation that simulates calculation and operation of the energy system. However, the time when the actual input parameter value becomes apparent is on the day of driving, for example, during actual driving or immediately before driving, and it is extremely difficult to execute optimization calculation and simulation again due to time constraints. In addition, optimization calculations and simulation re-execution are for all energy devices that make up the energy system, and the calculation load for calculating the optimum output value of each energy device is high, and a large amount of calculation is required. It takes time.

  For this reason, when the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value occurs, the actual condition is that the adjustment amount of the output of the energy device is determined depending on the experience and intuition of the operator. In this case, it is difficult to adjust the output of many energy devices at the same time according to the parameters that change from time to time, so the energy devices that simultaneously adjust the operation output to meet the parameter changes are limited to several. It will be. As a result, a combination can be made depending on which energy device is the target of output adjustment, and there are a number of alternatives in the method of modifying the plan depending on the combination. However, changes in the operating output of energy equipment affect each other, and the degree of influence between energy equipment varies depending on the operating state, so it is easy to determine the amount of adjustment of the operating output that is commensurate with parameter changes. It is extremely difficult to foresee the change in cost in advance.

  For example, when power demand increases, as an alternative to the plan correction method, it is possible to increase the power output from the power company or increase the operation output by selecting one or more cogeneration devices from multiple cogeneration systems. It is done. When increasing power purchase, the increase in cost can be calculated easily, but when increasing the output of the cogeneration device, it cannot be calculated easily. That is, if the output of the cogeneration device is increased in order to keep up with the increase in power demand, the heat generated at the same time increases, so the amount of cold generated in the absorption refrigerator increases by the increased amount of heat. Then, since the supply amount of cold heat increases, the cold heat generated by the electric refrigerator can be reduced, and the power demand is also reduced accordingly. Therefore, for example, even if the demand for 100 kW electric power increases, the output increment that the cogeneration apparatus really needs is not 100 kW. If the cogeneration apparatus tries to cover the increase in electric power demand, it will not go straightforward. In addition, cogeneration with multiple units not only has a relationship between generated power and heat, but also has a different relationship with the amount of fuel required, and the characteristic equation for those relationships is also non-linear, so which cogeneration is used Therefore, it is impossible to immediately determine whether the cost is the cheapest if the increase in power demand is met. Similarly, when the demand for cold heat increases, if the power demand is increased by increasing the output of the electric refrigerator, the power demand increases and the same response as described above must be taken. On the other hand, when responding by increasing the output of the absorption chiller, it is necessary to increase the heat generated by increasing the output of the boiler device or the cogeneration device. If you increase the output of the boiler, you can immediately calculate the amount of increase in cost, but if you increase the output of the cogeneration system, either the generated power will increase and the amount of power purchased will be reduced, or the output of the electric refrigerator will be increased. One or both will be possible and there will be many alternatives. In this alternative, it is not easy to calculate the amount of change of each energy device, and therefore it is not easy to calculate the cost of the alternative. On the other hand, if the electricity bill increases, it is better to reduce the amount of electricity purchased, but in that case, it is necessary to increase the power generated by the cogeneration device, and the heat generated at the same time also increases, so the cold heat generated by the absorption chiller It will not be possible to go by a straight line. Moreover, even if the fuel cost of the cogeneration device increases, reducing the electric power and heat generated in the cogeneration device to cope with it will affect the operation output of each energy device such as an absorption refrigerator. Further, there are many alternatives for the method corresponding to the increase in fuel cost, and since the input-output characteristics of each energy device are nonlinear, the alternative and its cost cannot be obtained easily.

  Therefore, it is difficult to immediately select from a number of alternatives the one that best meets the goal at the time of formulating the operation plan, for example, the one that minimizes the total cost. For this reason, the adjustment of the output of the energy equipment is devoted to responding to parameter changes, not necessarily in line with the goals at the time of formulating the operation plan, for example, not being aware of cost reduction, There is a risk of increasing the total cost.

  In view of this, the present invention provides an operation plan for an energy system once created based on a predicted parameter value. It is an object of the present invention to provide a method, an apparatus, and a program for correcting without impairing.

In order to achieve such an object, the invention described in claim 1 includes a power / heat supply means for outputting electric power and heat using fuel as a power source, and a cold / heat supply for outputting cold power using one or both of electric power and heat as a power source. Input parameters including at least a preset characteristic function of the power / thermal supply means and the cold supply means, and an electric power demand, a thermal demand, and a cold demand predicted for a future operating time zone. Based on the above, the electric power / thermal supply means and the cold supply means in the operation time zone satisfying the electric power demand, the thermal demand, and the cold demand, and minimizing the objective function or having the objective function as the target range This is a method for correcting an operation plan with a fixed output amount, and responds to changes in some or all of the input parameters. A correction proposal candidate for adjusting the output amount of some or all of the components of the electric power / heat supply means and the cold supply means is prepared in advance, and the change amount of the input parameter and the adjustment target device of the correction proposal candidate A relational expression with the output adjustment amount is obtained in advance , and when the actual input parameter change amount from the predicted value to the true value is clarified during or immediately before the operation of the energy system , the relation By substituting the actual change amount of the input parameter into the equation, the output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted is obtained, and the operation plan is corrected.

The invention according to claim 8 is an energy having power / heat supply means for outputting electric power and heat using fuel as a power source, and cold heat supply means for outputting cold using electric power or heat as a power source. Based on a preset characteristic function of the power / thermal supply means and the cold supply means, and input parameters including at least the electric power demand, the thermal demand, and the cold demand predicted for a future operating time period, Output amounts of the electric power / thermal supply means and the cold supply means in the operation time zone that satisfy the electric power demand, the thermal demand, and the cold demand and that minimize the objective function or make the objective function the target range are determined. Is a device for correcting the operation plan, and the power / heat supply means in response to a change in part or all of the input parameters. In addition, a relational expression between the change amount of the input parameter and the output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted is stored in advance for the correction plan candidates prepared in advance for adjusting the output amount of some or all of the components of the cooling / heating means. When the amount of change in the actual input parameter from the predicted value to the true value revealed during or immediately before operation of the energy system is input, the actual input is input to the corresponding relational expression. A parameter change amount is substituted to obtain an output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted, and a correction plan of the operation plan is output.

The invention according to claim 9 is an energy having power / heat supply means for outputting electric power and heat using fuel as a power source, and cold / heat supply means for outputting cold using electric power or heat as a power source. Based on a preset characteristic function of the power / thermal supply means and the cold supply means, and input parameters including at least the electric power demand, the thermal demand, and the cold demand predicted for a future operating time period, Output amounts of the electric power / thermal supply means and the cold supply means in the operation time zone that satisfy the electric power demand, the thermal demand, and the cold demand and that minimize the objective function or make the objective function the target range are determined. Is a program that allows a computer to function as a device for correcting an operation plan, and some or all of the input parameters The adjustment amount of input parameters and the adjustment target are prepared for correction plan candidates prepared in advance for adjusting the output amounts of some or all of the components of the power / heat supply unit and the cold supply unit in response to the change of the input parameter. Means for storing the relational expression with the output adjustment amount of the device in advance, and input of the amount of change of the actual input parameter from the predicted value to the true value that is clarified during or immediately before the operation of the energy system A computer for receiving a correction amount of the operation plan, a means for obtaining an output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device by substituting a change amount of the actual input parameter into the corresponding relational expression, I try to make it work.

  Therefore, when the actual input parameter value from the predicted value to the true value becomes clear, the actual input parameter value is used to simulate the optimization calculation based on mathematical programming and the operation of the energy system. If the change amount of the input parameter, that is, the actual deviation amount between the predicted value and the true value of the parameter is input without executing the simulation again, the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device can be obtained immediately by a simple calculation. Therefore, the objective function can be minimized or the deterioration of the objective function can be suppressed to the target range without depending on the operator's experience and intuition, for example, the total cost can be minimized or the increase in cost can be suppressed to an allowable range. Thus, it is possible to instantaneously obtain an output adjustment amount of an appropriate adjustment target device without impairing the target at the time of formulating the operation plan.

  Further, the invention according to claim 2 is the energy system operation plan correction method according to claim 1, wherein the power / heat supply means outputs one or a plurality of power and heat simultaneously using fuel as a power source. It has a cogeneration device and one or more boiler devices that output heat using fuel as a power source. Therefore, the present invention can be used for a general energy system having a cogeneration device and a boiler device.

  The invention described in claim 3 is the energy system operation plan correction method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the cold supply means is one or a plurality of electric refrigeration units that output cold using electric power as a power source. And one or a plurality of absorption refrigerators that output cold using warm heat as a power source. Therefore, the present invention can be used for an energy system having an electric refrigerator and an absorption refrigerator.

  According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, in the energy system operation plan correction method according to any one of the first to third aspects, a part or all of the relational expression is a linear function, and an input parameter of Obtaining the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change in advance, and from the proportional relationship between the actual input parameter change amount and the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of the input parameter obtained in advance, The output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device corresponding to the actual input parameter change amount is obtained.

  Therefore, the “output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of the input parameter” obtained in advance and the “actual input parameter change amount / input parameter” input when the actual value of the input parameter becomes clear. By simply multiplying the “unit change amount”, the “output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device corresponding to the actual input parameter change amount” can be obtained easily and quickly.

  According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, in the energy system operation plan correction method according to any one of the first to fourth aspects, a part or all of the characteristic function is a function of second order or higher. Yes. Therefore, it is possible to create an optimum operation plan that also takes into account nonlinear characteristics such as partial loads by more accurately expressing the characteristics of the device using a nonlinear function.

  The invention according to claim 6 is the energy system operation plan correction method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein a plurality of correction plan candidates are prepared for the same case of input parameter change. And adjusting the output amounts of some of the constituent devices of the power / heat supply means and the cold supply means, and the output amounts of the constituent devices other than the part are fixed as the operation plan, and When each of the plurality of revision proposal candidates is selected, the value of the objective function is obtained, and the revision proposal candidate that minimizes the objective function value or suppresses deterioration of the objective function within the target range is set as a parameter. It is adopted as a revision proposal to cope with changes.

  Therefore, since it responds by adjusting the output amount of some component devices to the change of the input parameter, the calculation load until calculating the output adjustment amount is reduced as compared with the case of corresponding to all the component devices, The output adjustment amount can be calculated and the operation plan can be revised quickly. In addition, since the operation plan is adjusted to adjust the output amount of some component devices, the device output can be adjusted more quickly than in the case where all component devices respond to changes in input parameters. In addition, since a correction plan that minimizes the objective function value or suppresses the deterioration of the objective function within the target range is adopted, plan correction in accordance with the target at the time of formulating the operation plan, for example, cost minimization or cost increase. The plan can be revised with an awareness of restraint.

  The invention described in claim 7 is the energy system operation plan correction method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the input parameters include predicted values of an electricity charge and a fuel charge, and The function represents the total of the electric charges and fuel charges that satisfy the electric power demand, the thermal demand, and the cold demand, and that are necessary for the operation of the electric power / hot supply means and the cold supply means. In this case, the operation plan is created so that the total cost is the lowest, and the plan correction is performed so that the total cost is the lowest.

  Thus, according to the energy system operation plan correction method according to claim 1, the energy system operation plan correction device according to claim 8, and the energy system operation plan correction program according to claim 9, the prediction based on the operation plan Even if parameters such as electricity, cooling, and heating demand, electricity charges, and fuel charges deviate from actual values found on the day of operation, etc., the operation plan will be re-developed on the day of operation. Therefore, it is possible to quickly obtain an appropriate output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted. It is possible to revise an appropriate operation plan that immediately responds to a change in parameters without damaging the target at the time of formulating the operation plan, such as minimizing the total cost, without depending on the experience and intuition of the operator.

  Furthermore, according to the invention described in claim 2, the present invention can be used for a general energy system having a cogeneration device and a boiler device. Furthermore, according to invention of Claim 3, this invention can be utilized about the energy system which has an electric refrigerator and an absorption refrigerator.

  Furthermore, according to the invention described in claim 4, the “actual output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of the input parameter” obtained in advance and the “actual input” input when the actual value of the input parameter becomes clear. By simply multiplying the input parameter change amount / input parameter unit change amount, the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device corresponding to the actual input parameter change amount can be obtained easily and quickly. Can do.

  Furthermore, according to the invention described in claim 5, it is possible to create an optimum operation plan that also takes into account nonlinear characteristics such as partial loads by more accurately expressing the characteristics of the equipment using a quadratic or higher order function. It becomes possible.

  Further, according to the sixth aspect of the present invention, the output adjustment amount is calculated as compared with the case where all the component devices cope with the change of the input parameter by adjusting the output amount of some of the component devices. The calculation load is reduced, and the output adjustment amount can be calculated and the operation plan can be corrected quickly. In addition, since the operation plan is adjusted to adjust the output amount of some component devices, the device output can be adjusted more quickly than in the case where all component devices respond to changes in input parameters. In addition, a revision plan that minimizes the value of the objective function or suppresses the deterioration of the objective function within the target range is adopted, so that the plan revision in accordance with the target at the time of formulating the operation plan, for example, the plan revision in consideration of cost reduction Can be done.

  According to the seventh aspect of the invention, the operation plan is created so that the total cost is the lowest, and the plan correction is also performed so that the total cost is the lowest.

  Hereinafter, the configuration of the present invention will be described in detail based on embodiments shown in the drawings.

  FIG. 1 to FIG. 4 show an embodiment of the energy system operation plan correction method of the present invention. The energy system 1 includes power / heat supply means 2 that outputs electric power and heat using fuel as a power source, and a cold / heat supply means 3 that outputs cold using one or both of power and heat as a power source. .

  The operation plan of the energy system 1, that is, the output amounts of the electric power / heat supply unit 2 and the cold supply unit 3 in a certain future operation time zone, are determined in advance before the operation time zone as follows. That is, based on the preset characteristic functions of the power / heat supply means 2 and the cold supply means 3 and the input parameters including at least the power demand, the heat demand, and the cold demand predicted for the future operation time zone, The amount of output of the electric power / heat supply unit 2 and the cold supply unit 3 that satisfies the demand, the thermal demand, and the cold demand and that minimizes the objective function or has the objective function in the target range is determined in the operation time zone. Here, the operation time zone for which the operation plan is formulated is referred to as a plan target time zone. In the planning target time zone, for example, a fixed time width such as 1 hour or 30 minutes is set as one unit, and the input parameter value in the one unit is fixed. The operation plan of the energy system 1 is prepared in advance for each unit of the planning target time zone before arrival of the planning target time zone, for example, the day before the corresponding operation day. By sequentially advancing the target time zone by one unit, a continuous operation plan of the energy system 1, for example, an operation plan for the next day is created.

  The values of input parameters such as power demand used to formulate the operation plan of the energy system 1 are based on predictions, and between actual parameter values that become apparent on the day of operation, for example, during actual operation or immediately before operation. Deviation is inevitable. Therefore, in this embodiment, in order to fill the gap between the predicted value and the actual value of the input parameter, the operation plan of the energy system 1 that has already been formulated is corrected as follows.

  That is, a plurality of correction proposal candidates for adjusting the output amounts of some or all of the constituent devices of the power / heat supply unit 2 and the cold supply unit 3 in response to changes in some or all of the input parameters are prepared in advance. When a relational expression between the amount of change in the input parameter and the output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted is obtained in advance for the correction proposal candidate, and the amount of change in the actual input parameter from the predicted value to the true value becomes clear Then, substituting the actual input parameter change amount into the relational expression to obtain the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device, the objective function value is minimized or the objective function is deteriorated from among a plurality of correction proposal candidates. Candidates for revisions that can be suppressed to the target range are adopted as revisions to cope with changes in parameters, and some or all of the components of the power / heat supply unit 2 and the cold supply unit 3 in the operation plan are used. So that to modify the competence.

  FIG. 1 shows an example of the configuration of a general energy system 1 and an example of an energy flow. A component device of the energy system 1 is also referred to as an energy device 4. The power / heat supply means 2 of the energy system 1 includes one or a plurality of cogeneration devices 4A and one or a plurality of boiler devices 4B as energy devices 4. The cogeneration apparatus 4A is a generator such as a turbine generator, an engine generator, or a fuel cell that simultaneously outputs electric power and heat using a fuel such as gas, kerosene, or diesel as a power source. The boiler device 4B is a device that outputs heat using a fuel such as gas, kerosene, or diesel as a power source. Moreover, the cold supply means 3 of the energy system 1 includes one or a plurality of electric refrigerators 4C that output cold using electric power as a power source, and one or a plurality of absorption types that output cold using warm heat as a power source. And a refrigerator 4D.

  In this energy system 1, the electric power and electric power demand required to operate the electric refrigerator 4C are generated by the electric power output from the cogeneration apparatus 4A and, for example, commercial electric power purchased from an electric power company (also referred to as purchased electric power). It is good. In addition, the shortage of the output power of the cogeneration device 4A is supplemented with purchased power. Heat is output from the cogeneration device 4A and the boiler device 4B, and this heat is sent to the absorption refrigeration machine 4D and the heat exchanger 5 that covers the demand for heat (for example, including hot water supply). In the absorption refrigerator 4D, cold energy is generated using the given heat. The absorption refrigerator 4D and the electric refrigerator 4C meet the cold demand. The excess heat is discarded through the cooling tower 6, for example.

  FIG. 1 shows a general system configuration example, and the energy system 1 applicable to the present invention is not limited to the configuration of FIG. For example, the power / heat supply means 2 may be configured with only one or a plurality of cogeneration devices 4A, not necessarily having the boiler device 4B. Moreover, you may comprise the cold-heat supply means 3 by only one of the electric refrigerator 4C and the absorption refrigerator 4D, not only having both the electric refrigerator 4C and the absorption refrigerator 4D.

  The operation plan of the energy system 1 is created by using existing or new computer resources, for example, as shown in FIG. A computer used to create an operation plan for the energy system 1 is also referred to as an operation plan formulation means 7. By installing the operation plan formulation program on the computer, the computer functions as the operation plan formulation means 7.

  In the storage device 7A provided in the operation plan formulation means 7, the characteristic function of each energy device 4 constituting the energy system 1 is input and stored in advance by a user or the like via the input device 7B such as a keyboard. In addition, a variable parameter corresponding to the planned time zone is input to the operation plan formulation means 7 by the user or the like via the input device 7B, for example. Based on the characteristic function of each energy device 4 stored in the storage device 7A and the input parameters by the arithmetic device 7C included in the operation plan formulation means 7, the predicted power demand, the predicted thermal demand, and the predicted cold demand are calculated. The output amount of each energy device 4 in the planned time zone that satisfies the objective function and minimizes the objective function or sets the objective function as the target range is calculated. For example, an operation plan for the next day of the energy system 1 is created by sequentially advancing the target time zone one unit at a time and inputting parameters corresponding to the target time zone. The operation plan data is output from an output device 7D included in the operation plan formulation means 7 such as a network interface for communicating with a display, a printer, or an external information processing apparatus.

  Here, the input parameters of the present embodiment are, for example, a demand parameter indicating predicted power demand, predicted thermal demand, and predicted cold demand in a planning target time zone, and a charge parameter representing an electricity rate and a fuel rate. The constraint condition of the present embodiment is to satisfy the output upper and lower limits, power demand, thermal demand, and cold demand of the constituent devices, and the objective function is necessary for the operation of the power / thermal feed means 2 and the cold feed means 3 It represents the total of electricity and fuel charges. In this case, the characteristic function of each energy device 4 set in the operation plan formulation means 7 is, for example, a relational expression between the power output of the cogeneration device 4A and the fuel consumption cost, the power output of the cogeneration device 4A and the thermal output. , A relational expression between the thermal output of the boiler device 4B and the consumption fuel cost, a relational expression between the cooling output and the consumption thermal energy of the absorption chiller 4D, and a relational expression between the cooling output and the power consumption of the electric refrigerator 4C Become. The objective function is represented by the sum of the charge for purchased power, the total fuel consumption of all the cogeneration devices 4A, and the total fuel consumption of all the boiler devices 4B. Based on the characteristic function and the input parameter, the operation plan formulation means 7 satisfies the predicted power demand, the predicted thermal demand and the predicted cold demand, and minimizes the objective function, that is, in the plan target time zone where the cost is lowest. The output amount of each energy device 4 is calculated.

  However, the objective function is not necessarily limited to the one for minimizing the cost. For example, the objective function may be for minimizing the carbon dioxide emission in order to realize the optimization of the environment. An objective function for achieving both carbon dioxide emissions may be set. When minimizing the carbon dioxide emission amount instead of the cost minimization, the characteristic function is, for example, a relational expression between the power output of the cogeneration device 4A and the carbon dioxide emission amount, the power output and the thermal output of the cogeneration device 4A. , Relational expression between the thermal output of the boiler device 4B and carbon dioxide emission, relational expression between the cooling output of the absorption chiller 4D and consumption heat, relational expression between the cooling output and power consumption of the electric refrigerator 4C The objective function is expressed as the total carbon dioxide emissions. When minimizing carbon dioxide emissions, it is not necessary to input a charge parameter representing an electricity charge and a fuel charge as input parameters.

  The computer as the operation plan formulating means 7 is to minimize the objective function and balance supply and demand (that is, satisfy power demand, thermal demand and cold demand), and limit the output upper and lower limits of the components. As an example, the output amount of each energy device 4 in the planning target time zone is calculated by mathematical programming, for example.

  The balance between demand and supply, for example, the balance between power supply and demand, is that the sum of purchased power and the power output of all cogeneration devices 4A is equal to the sum of power consumption and power demand of all electric refrigerators 4C. It is expressed by a condition. Further, the cold supply / demand balance is expressed by a constraint condition that the sum of the cold output of all the electric refrigerators 4C and the cold output of all the absorption refrigerators 4D is equal to the cold demand. Further, the balance between the supply and demand of heat is that the sum of the heat output of all the cogeneration devices 4A and the heat output of all the boiler devices 4B is the consumption heat of all the absorption refrigerators 4D and the supply heat to the heat exchanger 5. Therefore, the output heat from the heat exchanger 5 is expressed by the constraint that the heat demand is equal to the heat demand.

  When the characteristic function of the energy device 4 is a linear function (linear function), it becomes a linear programming problem, and when the characteristic function is a function of second order or higher (nonlinear function), it becomes a nonlinear programming problem. The computer as the operation plan formulation means 7 calculates the optimum output amount of each energy device 4 in the planning target time zone by a known or new linear programming method or nonlinear programming method.

  However, it is not limited to calculating the optimum output amount of each energy device 4 in the planning target time zone by mathematical programming such as linear programming or non-linear programming. For example, a simulation simulating the operation of the energy system 1 is performed on the computer as the operation plan formulating means 7 based on the characteristic function and the input parameters, and the objective function falls within the target range, and the electric power demand, the thermal demand, and the cold energy You may make it determine, adjusting the output amount of each energy apparatus 4 so that a demand may be satisfied.

  For example, in this embodiment, the characteristic function is expressed not only as a linear function but also as a nonlinear function as necessary, and an operation plan for the energy system 1 is created by a nonlinear programming method. When the characteristic of the energy device 4 is expressed by a linear function, it is difficult to consider the characteristic that the efficiency of the energy device 4 is lower than the rated output due to a partial load, for example. As a result, an operation plan that forces the energy device 4 to operate at low efficiency may be created, which may increase the cost. By expressing the characteristics of the energy device 4 more accurately using a nonlinear function as in the present embodiment, it is possible to create an optimal operation plan that also takes into account nonlinear characteristics such as partial loads.

  The modification of the operation plan of the energy system 1 can also be executed by using existing or new computer resources as shown in FIG. 4, for example. A computer used for correcting the operation plan of the energy system 1 is also referred to as an operation plan correction device 8. When the operation plan correction program is installed in the computer, the computer functions as the operation plan correction device 8. The operation plan correction device 8 and the operation plan formulation means 7 may be realized by a single computer.

  Depending on whether power demand, thermal demand, cold demand, electricity rate, or fuel rate changes, the input parameters may change simultaneously in the same time zone for two or more of these parameters. Therefore, multiple cases are assumed. In the present embodiment, a plurality of correction proposal candidates are prepared for each case where an input parameter change can be assumed, and each correction proposal candidate corresponds to a change in input parameters in all energy devices 4 in the energy system 1. Instead, some energy devices 4 are used to cope with changes in input parameters. In other words, the outputs of some energy devices 4 are adjusted to cope with changes in input parameters, and the outputs of other energy devices 4 are kept constant when the operation plan is formulated. This is because it is impractical to adjust the outputs of all the energy devices 4 at the same time in order to respond instantaneously to parameters that change from moment to moment. Therefore, depending on how many types of energy devices 4 are used, there may be a plurality of correction proposal candidates even if the input parameter changes in the same case.

  For each correction proposal candidate for each case of input parameter change, a relational expression between the change amount of the input parameter and the output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted is obtained in advance. If an output of a certain energy device 4 changes from X to X + ΔX when a certain input parameter changes from A → A + ΔA, the output adjustment amount of the energy device 4 is ΔX. Further, the incremental output per parameter unit is ΔX / ΔA. When partial differentiation is obtained for A with ΔA → 0, the incremental output is ∂X / ∂A. ∂X / ∂A is generally called a sensitivity coefficient.

On the other hand, from the Taylor expansion, the following equation holds.

Therefore, ΔX is expressed by the following equation.

After all, the output adjustment amount ΔX of the energy device 4 when the input parameter changes from A → A + ΔA is expressed by Equation 3 if it is a first-order approximation of Taylor expansion, and is expressed by Equation 4 if it is a second-order approximation of Taylor expansion. expressed.

  Therefore, if Equation 3 or Equation 4 is obtained in advance for each correction proposal candidate for each case of input parameter change, when the actual input parameter change amount ΔA from the predicted value to the true value becomes clear, By substituting the actual input parameter change amount ΔA into the previously obtained relational expression, the output adjustment amount ΔX of the device to be adjusted can be immediately obtained. Equation 4 has a higher accuracy of the output adjustment amount ΔX than Equation 3, but requires more calculation time and more advanced computer resources because the calculation equation becomes complicated. For this reason, for example, which one of calculation speed and accuracy is to be prioritized according to the application may be examined, and one of Formula 3 and Formula 4 may be selected as appropriate. In this specification, for the sake of convenience, the method based on Equation 3 is called a simple calculation method, and the method based on Equation 4 is called a detailed calculation method.

  When the simple calculation method is used, the relational expression between the input parameter change amount ΔA and the adjustment target device output adjustment amount ΔX is a linear function (linear function), and the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of the input parameter. If the actual input parameter change amount becomes clear, the actual input parameter change amount and the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of the input parameter obtained in advance are obtained. Therefore, the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device corresponding to the actual input parameter change amount can be immediately obtained. That is, by simply multiplying “the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of the input parameter” and “the actual input parameter change amount / the input parameter unit change amount”, the “actual input parameter The output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted corresponding to the amount of change "can be obtained easily and quickly.

  For example, if the sensitivity coefficient ∂X / ∂A indicating the output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted per unit change of the input parameter is obtained in advance, the actual input parameter change amount ΔA and the previously obtained sensitivity coefficient ∂X /／ From ∂A, the output adjustment amount ΔX of the device to be adjusted corresponding to the actual input parameter change amount ΔA can be immediately obtained based on Equation 3.

  The method for obtaining “the output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted per unit change of the input parameter” includes, for example, a function that represents the output of each energy device 4 obtained by mathematical programming, and a partial differential with the target input parameter. In addition to the method of using the sensitivity coefficient ∂X / ∂A obtained in this way, the target input parameter is increased by one unit, and optimization simulation by mathematical programming and simulation simulating the operation of the energy system 1 are performed again. There is a way to ask for it. When the optimization calculation and the simulation are executed again, the energy device 4 that is not the target of output adjustment in each correction plan candidate fixes its output as it is when the operation plan is formulated. The energy device 4 that is the target of the output adjustment performs optimization without fixing the output. The output of each energy device 4 obtained after the above optimization calculation and simulation re-execution is compared with the output at the time of formulating the operation plan, and the difference is expressed as “output adjustment amount of adjustment target device per unit change of input parameter” " The unit change of the input parameter is expressed as, for example, an increase in power demand of 1 kW if the change is in the power demand parameter, for example, an increase in cold demand in one refrigeration if the change is in the cold demand parameter.

Candidates for correction proposals corresponding to each case of input parameter change can be used, for example, to create an operation plan in the planning target time zone before the arrival of the planning target time zone using the human ability of an analyst or the like or an analysis program. In addition, for example, it is created in advance according to the procedure shown in the flowchart of FIG. First, an operation plan is created using input parameters based on predicted values (step 1). Let this operation plan be A. Next, which input parameter is to be changed is selected (step 2). For example, it is assumed that one input parameter k (k = 1, 2, 3,..., N) is changed by one unit from n input parameters. Other input parameters are fixed. Next, a plurality of correction plan candidates corresponding to the change of the input parameter determined in step 2 are created (step 3). For example, a correction plan candidate corresponding to a change in the input parameter k is expressed as B (k, i). i is a sequential number starting from 1 (i = 1, 2, 3,..., m) and continues to the number m of possible correction proposal candidates corresponding to the change of the input parameter k. If the value of i is different, the model or number of energy devices 4 to be subjected to output adjustment is different. Next, a relational expression between the change amount of one unit of the input parameter and the output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted is obtained for all the correction proposal candidates created in Step 3 (Step 4). For example, Equation 3 or on the basis of the equation 4, or calculated amount of change in the output of each of the energy device 4 in the case of changing the plan suggests corrections B (k, i) from the operation plan A, thereby "Input Parameters The output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of k ”is obtained.

  The processing from step 2 to step 4 is performed for all combinations of changes in input parameters (step 5). For example, the processing from step 2 to step 4 is the same for all combinations when input parameters k = 1, 2, 3,..., N change individually, and for all combinations when a plurality of input parameters change simultaneously. To do.

  Note that the processing in FIG. 2 is executed by using human ability of an analyst or the like or an analysis program. In particular, in step 4, the target input parameter is increased by one unit, and the simulation that simulates the optimization calculation by mathematical programming and the operation of the energy system 1 is executed again. In the case of obtaining the “apparatus output adjustment amount”, for example, the processing in FIG. 2 can be completely executed by a computer. In this case, since the types of the input parameters and the models and the number of the energy devices 4 constituting the energy system 1 are known, all the combinations of the input parameters and the combinations of the energy devices 4 that are assumed (Steps 2, 5, and 3). ), The process of step 4 may be repeated.

  In the storage device 8A of the operation plan correction device 8, the relationship between the input parameter change amount ΔA and the output adjustment amount ΔX of the adjustment target device for each correction plan candidate in each case of the input parameter change obtained as described above. The expression is input and stored by the user or the like via the input device 8B such as a keyboard (step 6 in FIG. 3). The relational expression data may be written to the storage device 8A of the operation plan correction device 8 from the computer that has executed the processing of FIG. 2, and the operation plan correction device 8 executes the processing of FIG. The relational expression data may be stored in the storage device 8A.

  Then, for example, when the true value of the input parameter becomes clear, the amount of change of the input parameter in one unit, that is, the difference between the predicted value of the input parameter and the true value is obtained, for example, via the input device 8B. And the like are input to the operation plan correction device 8 (step 7). A plurality of correction plan candidates corresponding to the type of the input parameter in which the change has occurred is selected by the arithmetic unit 8C included in the operation plan correction device 8, and the input stored in the storage device 8A for each selected correction plan candidate. The input parameter change amount is substituted into the relational expression between the change amount of one unit of the parameter and the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device, and the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device is calculated (step 8).

  Here, in the present embodiment, one of a plurality of correction proposal candidates is adopted as follows. In other words, when each of the plurality of revision proposal candidates is selected, the value of each objective function is obtained, and the revision proposal candidate that minimizes the objective function value or suppresses the objective function deterioration to the target range is adopted. To do. Since the objective function of the present embodiment represents the cost, the correction plan candidate having the lowest cost is adopted. Specifically, the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device corresponding to each correction proposal candidate is added to the output value of the corresponding energy device 4 in the predetermined operation plan, and the objective function is recalculated. The objective function values are compared between the revision proposal candidates, and the revision proposal candidate with the lowest cost is selected (step 9).

  The output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device corresponding to the selected correction plan is, for example, an output device included in the operation plan correction device 8 such as a network interface for communicating with a display, a printer, or an external information processing device as plan correction data 8D is output (step 10). The operation plan data output by the operation plan formulation means 7 is read by the operation plan correction device 8, and the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device corresponding to the selected correction plan is determined as the energy device corresponding to the predetermined operation plan. The operation plan data may be corrected by reflecting it in the output value of 4. In addition, about the energy equipment 4 which is not selected as an adjustment object apparatus in a correction proposal, it is the output value at the time of operation plan formulation. Then, the operation of the energy system 1 is performed based on the corrected operation plan. The output value of each energy device 4 related to the corrected operation plan data may be input to the control unit of the energy system 1 to automatically operate the energy system 1. Furthermore, the operation plan data output by the operation plan formulation means 7 and the correction data output by the operation plan correction device 8 may be input to the control unit of the energy system 1 to automatically operate the energy system 1. .

  Here, the revision proposal selected from among a plurality of revision proposal candidates is a problem in the operation of the energy system 1 (for example, the output value of the corrected energy device 4 exceeds the upper limit value or the lower limit value) If it falls under the condition that it cannot be executed, the selected correction proposal candidate is finely adjusted (for example, the output of the adjustment target device so as to satisfy the restriction on the output value of the energy device 4) The adjustment amount may be finely adjusted), or a correction proposal candidate whose cost is the next lowest may be selected again. Further, the objective function value (total cost in the present embodiment) when a plurality of correction plan candidates and each correction plan candidate are selected is displayed on an output device 8D such as a display provided in the operation plan correction device 8, and the operator It may be possible to select a correction plan based on the above determination.

  Further, for a plurality of correction proposal candidates, based on the rank order of the cost based on the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of the input parameter and the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device with respect to the actual input parameter change amount If the order of cost size does not change, it is not always necessary to narrow down to one of a plurality of candidates for correction by cost comparison at the time of correcting the operation plan. It is also possible to decide on a revision plan with a low. In this case, the relational expression between the change amount ΔA of the input parameter and the output adjustment amount ΔX of the adjustment target device for all of a plurality of correction plan candidates assumed for each case of the input parameter change is given to the operation plan correction device 8. It is not necessary to input in advance, and the relationship between the change amount ΔA of the input parameter and the output adjustment amount ΔX of the adjustment target device with respect to one correction plan that is determined in advance for each case of the input parameter change and has the lowest cost. The formula may be input to the operation plan correction device 8 in advance.

  Hereinafter, the operation plan creation method for the energy system 1 and the modification method for the created operation plan will be described in more detail with specific examples.

  In the present embodiment, the objective function is expressed by, for example, Formula 5, the constraint condition by the power supply / demand balance is expressed by Formula 6, the constraint condition by the cold supply / demand balance is expressed by Formula 7, and the thermal supply / demand balance is expressed by Formula 8 and Formula 9. Express.

Further, the purchased power charge is expressed by a linear expression shown in Expression 10.

The relationship between the power output of the i-th cogeneration device 4Ai and the fuel consumption cost is expressed by, for example, a quadratic equation shown in Formula 11, and the relationship between the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai and the thermal output is expressed by a quadratic equation shown in, for example, Formula 12. Expressed as an expression.

Further, the relationship between the cold output and the consumed heat of the m-th absorption refrigeration machine 4Dm is expressed by, for example, a quadratic expression shown in Formula 13, and the relationship between the cool output and the power consumption of the n-th electric refrigerator 4Cn is expressed by, for example, Formula 14 The relationship between the thermal output of the j-th boiler device 4Bj and the consumed fuel cost is expressed by, for example, the secondary expression shown in Equation 15.

  A plan that satisfies the constraint conditions shown in Formulas 6 to 9 and minimizes the objective function shown in Formula 5 based on the input parameters based on the prediction in the planning target time zone and the characteristic functions shown in Formulas 10 to 15. The optimum output amount of each energy device 4 in the target time zone is calculated. Since a nonlinear function is used as the characteristic function, this optimization problem is a nonlinear programming problem. Lagrange's undetermined constant method using Lagrangian functions (references; Aiyoshi, Shimizu: “Mathematical programming exercises”, Asakura Shoten, 1985, Fukushima: “Introduction to mathematical programming” , Asakura Shoten, 1996, etc.) are often used. This method derives the formula for calculating the optimal solution from the Kuhn-Tucker condition, which is a condition that is established by the optimal or local optimal solution in the nonlinear programming problem.

The Lagrangian function in the nonlinear programming problem of this embodiment is expressed by the following equation. In the present embodiment, “the heat supplied to the heat exchanger 5” and “the heat supplied from the heat exchanger 5” and “the heat demand” are equal, that is, Q ^I _HE = Q ^h _HE = Q ^h _D And

Here, λ ₁ , λ ₂ , and μ are coefficients called Lagrange multipliers. In addition, μ ≧ 0 is satisfied, μ = 0 when the inequality sign of Equation 9 is satisfied, and μ> 0 when the equal sign is satisfied. The Kuhn-Tucker condition in the nonlinear programming problem of the present embodiment is described by the following Expressions 17 to 23 expressed using the Lagrangian functions of Expressions 6 to 9 and Expression 16.

From Equation 17, the following equation is established.

From Equation 19, the following equation is established.

Moreover, the following formula is established when formulas 20 and 21 are arranged.

When the Lagrangian multipliers in the optimal solution are λ ^O ₁ , λ ^O ₂ , and μ ^O and Equations 10 to 15 are substituted into Equations 17 to 21, the Kuhn-Tucker conditions become Equations 27 to 33 below.

As a result, the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is expressed by Formula 34, the purchased power is expressed by Formula 35, the thermal output of the boiler device 4Bj is expressed by Formula 36, and the cold output of the absorption chiller 4Dm is expressed by Formula 37. The cold output of the electric refrigerator 4Cn is expressed by Equation 38.

Here, λ ^O ₁ is expressed by Equation 39.

λ ^O ₂ is a function of μ ^O as shown in the following equation by substituting Equation 30 and Equation 31 into Equation 7.

Eventually, the output of each of the energy device 4 at the optimum operating conditions are determined uniquely by determining the mu ^O. mu ^O can be determined by methods such as for example the bisection method. Therefore, in order to formulate a daily operation plan of the energy system 1, the predicted power demand, the predicted thermal demand, and the predicted cold demand are input into Formula 34 to Formula 40 for each planning target time zone, and μ ^O is divided into two, for example. What is necessary is just to repeat the operation of obtaining by law.

Note that λ ^O ₁ does not become a constant when power from commercial power is not purchased. In that case, the following equation is obtained by substituting Equation 28 into Equation 6 with E = 0. In this case, λ ^O ₁ is not a constant but a function of μ ^O.

  Examples of changes in various input parameters (power demand, cold demand, thermal demand, electricity charges, fuel charges) in the energy system 1 and examples of revision proposal candidates assumed in that case are shown below. The output adjustment amount of the energy device 4 is formulated. However, the following examples and correction proposal candidates are only examples, and do not show all of the correction proposal candidates. Here, the calculation formulas for some cases show two types, Taylor expansion primary approximation as a simple calculation method and Taylor expansion secondary approximation as a detailed calculation method. Further, in this example, since there is no cost merit when the boiler device 4B is operated, it is assumed that there is no increase in the boiler device 4B.

<Case 1: Case where demand for cold energy changes>
Case 1 is a case where the cold demand Q ^c _D changes from the established operation plan, that is, Q ^c _D → Q ^c _D + ΔQ ^c _D. In this case, the correction proposal candidates are roughly classified into the following four. However, depending on which device is selected from a plurality of the same type of energy devices 4, the four correction plan candidates may be further subdivided.

<Candidate 1 amendment proposal 1>
In the revision candidate 1, the purchased power and the electric refrigerator 4Cn respond to changes in the cold demand. More specifically, the change in the cold energy demand is handled by adjusting the output of one of the NRE-equipped electric refrigerators 4C, and the changed power consumption is handled by adjusting the purchased power from commercial power. The output of the other energy devices 4 is constant as it is when the operation plan is formulated. This condition is expressed by the following equation.

<Simple calculation method of candidate 1 for revision 1 in case 1>
From the formulas 42 and 44, the following formula is established.

Further, the following expression is established from Expression 45, Expression 14, and Expression 31.

Therefore, the increase in purchased power is expressed by the following equation. Note that the increment of the cooling output of the electric refrigerator 4Cn is expressed by Equation 42.

<Detailed calculation method for candidate revision 1 for case 1>
The following equation is derived from the quadratic approximation of the Taylor expansion.

From Equations 45 and 48, the increase in purchased power is expressed by the following equation.

<Candidate 1 revision proposal 2>
In the revision candidate 2, the cogeneration device 4Ai and the absorption chiller 4Dm respond to changes in the cold demand. More specifically, the amount of change in the cold energy demand can be adjusted by adjusting the output of one of the absorption chillers 4D with the NRS units, and the changed heat consumption can be achieved with one unit of the cogeneration unit 4A with the NCU units. Adjust and respond. Further, the purchased power from the commercial power is reduced by the increase in the output of the cogeneration device 4Ai. The output of the other energy devices 4 is constant as it is when the operation plan is formulated. This condition is expressed by the following equation.

<Simple calculation method of candidate 2 for proposed revision of case 1>
From Equation 53, the following equation is established.

Further, the following expression is established from Expressions 12 and 28.

Further, the following expression is established from Expression 13, Expression 30, and Expression 50.

When Expressions 55 and 56 are substituted into Expression 54, the increment of the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is expressed by the following expression. The increment of the cooling output of the absorption chiller 4Dm is expressed by Formula 50, and the increment of the purchased power is expressed by Formula 52.

<Detailed Calculation Method for Candidate Modification 2 for Case 1>
The following equation is derived from the quadratic approximation of the Taylor expansion.

From Expression 54, Expression 58, and Expression 59, the increment of the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is expressed by the following expression.

The following equation is derived from Equation 12.

Further, the following expression is derived from Expression 62 and Expression 55. Therefore, Formula 58 is derived.

<Candidate 1 revision plan candidate 3>
In the revision candidate 3, the cogeneration device 4Ai and the electric refrigerator 4Cn respond to changes in the cold demand. More specifically, the change in the demand for cold energy is handled by adjusting the output of one unit of the electric refrigerator 4C with the NRE unit, and the changed power consumption is adjusted with one unit of the cogeneration unit 4A with the NCU unit. And respond. Throw away any excess heat due to the output adjustment of the cogeneration device 4Ai. In addition, when there is not enough heat, the thermal output of the boiler device 4B may be increased. However, in this example, it is assumed that there is no increment of the boiler device 4B. The output of the other energy devices 4 is constant as it is when the operation plan is formulated. This condition is expressed by the following equation.

<Simple calculation method of candidate 3 for proposed revision 1>
From the formulas 65 and 67, the following formula is established.

Further, the following expression is established from Expressions 14 and 31.

Therefore, the increment of the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is expressed by the following equation from Equation 68 and Equation 69. Note that the increment of the cooling output of the electric refrigerator 4Cn is expressed by Expression 65.

<Detailed calculation method for candidate 3 for proposed revision 1>
The following equation is derived from the quadratic approximation of Taylor expansion and Equation 65.

From Expression 68 and Expression 71, the increment of the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is expressed by the following expression.

<Candidate 1 revision proposal 4>
In the correction plan candidate 4, the cogeneration device 4Ai, the plurality of absorption chillers 4D, and the plurality of electric refrigerators 4C respond to changes in the cold demand. More specifically, the change in the cold energy demand is handled by adjusting the output of all or part of the absorption chiller 4D and the electric chiller 4C, and the changed consumption heat and power consumption are NCU units. One device 4A is adjusted to cope with it. The output of the other energy devices 4 is constant as it is when the operation plan is formulated. This condition is expressed by the following equation. However, NRS and NRE are the number of absorption chillers 4D and electric refrigerators 4C that are the targets of output adjustment.

<Simple calculation method of candidate 4 for proposed revision of case 1>
From Expression 73, the following expression is established.

Further, the following equation is established from Equation 79, Equation 13, Equation 30, Equation 12, and Equation 28.

Further, the following expression is established from Expression 77, Expression 14, and Expression 31.

When Expression 82 and Expression 83 are substituted into Expression 81, the increment of the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is expressed by the following expression.

Further, from the equation 83, the increment of the cooling output of the plurality of electric refrigerators 4C is expressed by the following equation.

Moreover, the increment of the cooling-heat output of several absorption refrigerator 4D from Formula 82 is represented by the following Formula.

数式７７、数式７３より次式が成立する。

<Detailed calculation method for candidate 4 for proposed revision 1>
The relationship between the cold heat output and the power consumption when a plurality of electric refrigerators are gathered is represented by Equation 87.

From the formulas 77 and 73, the following formula is established.

Further, the following formula is established from Formula 77, Formula 79, Formula 13, Formula 30, Formula 14, and Formula 31.

Further, the following equation is derived from the second order approximation of Taylor expansion.

Substituting Equation 90 into Equation 89 yields:

Further, the following equation is derived from the second order approximation of Taylor expansion.

Here, since the second term on the right side of Equation 92 is sufficiently smaller than the first term, the first-order approximation of Taylor expansion shown in the following equation is used as the value of ΔQ _RE of the second term.

Substituting Equation 93 into Equation 92 yields:

By substituting Equations 91 and 94 into Equation 88, the following equation is obtained.

Although Δp _CUi is included in Equation 95, since the influence of the term Δp _CUi is small, the first-order approximation of the following equation is used as the value of Δp _CUi of this term.

Substituting Equations 97 and 96 into Equation 95 gives the following equation.

From Equation 98, the increment of the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is expressed by the following equation.

Further, from Equation 79, Equation 13, and Equation 30, the increment of the cooling output of the plurality of absorption chillers 4D is expressed by the following equation.

Further, from Equation 73, the increment of the cooling output of the plurality of electric refrigerators 4C is expressed by the following equation.

The increment of the thermal output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is expressed by the following equation.

<Case 2: Case where power demand changes>
Case 2, when the power demand P _D from development and operational plan has changed, that is, when it becomes a _{P D → P D + ΔP D} . In this case, the correction proposal candidates are roughly classified into the following two. However, depending on which device is selected from a plurality of the same type of energy devices 4, there are cases where the two correction proposal candidates are further subdivided.

<Candidate 2 revision proposal 1>
In the correction plan candidate 1, the cogeneration device 4Ai, the absorption chiller 4D, and the electric chiller 4C respond to changes in power demand. More specifically, the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is changed in accordance with the change in power demand. Along with this, the thermal output from the cogeneration device 4Ai also changes, so the cold output of the absorption chiller 4D also changes accordingly. Furthermore, the cooling output of the electric refrigerator 4C is changed by an amount corresponding to the change of the cooling output of the absorption refrigerator 4D. The output of the other energy devices 4 is constant as it is when the operation plan is formulated. This condition is expressed by the following equation. Note that the input / output of the refrigerator is described collectively for one equivalent device.

<Simple calculation method of candidate revision 1 for case 2>
From the formula 102, the following formula is derived.

Further, the following expression is derived from Expression 105 and Expression 110.

Therefore, the following expression is established from Expression 12, Expression 28, Expression 21, and Expression 22.

Substituting Equation 113 into Equation 111 yields:

Therefore, the increment of the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is expressed by the following equation.

Moreover, the increment of the cooling-heat output of absorption type refrigerator 4D and electric refrigerator 4C is calculated | required from following Formula.

<Detailed calculation method for candidate revision 1 of case 2>
Since obtaining a secondary partial derivative requires complicated calculation, a detailed calculation method is omitted.
The detailed calculation method is not performed.

<Candidate 2 candidate for revision 2>
In revision plan candidate 2, the change in power demand is covered by purchased power. The output of all energy devices 4 is constant as it is when the operation plan is formulated. The increase in purchased power is expressed by the following equation. In this case, since it is a linear expression, a detailed calculation method cannot be performed.

<Case 3: Case where electricity charges change>
Case 3 is a case where the electricity rate α changes from the established operation plan, that is, α → α + Δα. In this case, for example, there are the following correction proposal candidates. However, depending on which device is selected from a plurality of the same type of energy devices 4, the correction proposal candidates may be further subdivided.

<Candidate 3 revision proposal candidates>
The cogeneration device 4Ai, the absorption chiller 4Dm, and the electric chiller 4Cn cope with the change in the electricity bill. The output of the other energy devices 4 is constant as it is when the operation plan is formulated. This condition is expressed by the following equation.

  The thermal output of the cogeneration device 4Ai changes, and the cold output of the absorption chiller 4Dm also changes accordingly. Moreover, since the cold energy demand does not change, the output of the electric refrigerator 4Cn changes according to the cold output fluctuation of the absorption refrigerator 4Dm so that the cold supply amount does not change. The power of cogeneration i also changes at the same time, but the power demand does not change, so the purchased power changes by the amount of output fluctuation of cogeneration i.

In addition, the increment of μ ^O when the electricity rate is increased by one unit is ΔM _α . ΔM _α is optimized by the operation plan formulation means 7 by fixing the output of the energy equipment 4 other than the cogeneration i, the absorption chiller 4Dm, and the electric refrigerator 4Cn as it is when the operation plan is formulated, and Δα = 1. It is obtained by re-executing the calculation.

Here, the following mathematical formula is defined.

Further, the following expression is derived from Expression 34.

Therefore, the increment of the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is obtained from the following equation.

Moreover, the increment of the thermal output of cogeneration apparatus 4Ai is calculated | required from following Formula.

Further, the increment of the cooling output of the absorption chiller 4Dm is obtained from the following equation.

Moreover, the increment of the cold-power output of electric refrigerator 4Cn is represented by following Formula.

The increase in power consumption of the electric refrigerator 4Cn is obtained from the following equation.

Therefore, the increase in purchased power from commercial power is expressed by the following equation.

<Case 4: Cases where fuel prices change>
Case 4 is a case where the fuel charge β (for example, gas charge) changes, that is, β → β + Δβ. In this case, for example, there are the following correction proposal candidates. However, depending on which device is selected from a plurality of the same type of energy devices 4, the correction proposal candidates may be further subdivided.

<Candidate 4 revision proposal candidates>
The cogeneration device 4Ai, the absorption chiller 4Dm, and the electric chiller 4Cn respond to changes in the fuel price. The output of the other energy devices 4 is constant as it is when the operation plan is formulated. This condition is expressed by the following equation.

  The thermal output of the cogeneration device 4Ai changes, and the cold output of the absorption chiller 4Dm also changes accordingly. Moreover, since the cold energy demand does not change, the output of the electric refrigerator 4Cn changes according to the cold output fluctuation of the absorption refrigerator 4Dm so that the cold supply amount does not change. The power of cogeneration i also changes at the same time, but the power demand does not change, so the purchased power changes by the amount of output fluctuation of cogeneration i.

Further, the increment of μ ^O when the fuel rate is increased by one unit is ΔM _β . ΔM _β is optimized by the operation plan formulation means 7 by fixing the output of the energy equipment 4 other than the cogeneration i, the absorption chiller 4Dm, and the electric refrigerator 4Cn, for example, as it is when the operation plan is formulated, and Δβ = 1. It is obtained by re-executing the calculation.

In order to consider the fuel charge, the fuel cost function of the cogeneration device 4Ai shown in Formula 11 is rewritten as the following formula.

Here, the following mathematical formula is defined.

Further, the following expression is derived from Expression 34.

Therefore, the following equation is derived from Equation 134.

Based on Expression 135, the increment of the power output of the cogeneration device 4Ai is obtained from the following expression.

Moreover, the increment of the thermal output of cogeneration apparatus 4Ai is calculated | required from following Formula.

Moreover, the increment of the cold-power output of absorption refrigeration machine 4Dm is calculated | required from following Formula.

Moreover, the increment of the cold-power output of electric refrigerator 4Cn is represented by following Formula.

The increase in power consumption of the electric refrigerator 4Cn is obtained from the following equation.

Therefore, the increase in purchased power from commercial power is expressed by the following equation.

  Actually changing the input parameters from the time of formulation of the operation plan as in the above examples, the output adjustment amount formulated as described above, and the value obtained by re-running the optimization calculation (also called the true increment) And the accuracy of the formulated output adjustment amount was confirmed. In addition, actual cost changes were calculated and compared.

Table 1 shows specific examples of components of the energy system 1 shown in FIG.

Table 2 shows specific examples of the coefficient of the characteristic function of each energy device 4 expressed by a quadratic function such as Y = aX ² + bX + c.

Table 3 shows specific examples of electricity charges and fuel (gas) charges set for a certain planning target time zone, and Table 4 shows specific examples of predicted demand in the planning target time zone.

Table 5 shows the output of each energy device 4 as a result of the optimization calculation based on the nonlinear programming described above.

<Case 1: Case where demand for cold energy changes>
When the demand for cooling and heating increases by 100 USRT from the predicted value at the time of formulating the operation plan to 2360 USRT, the true increment in the revised proposal candidates 1 to 4 is compared with the formulated output adjustment amount.

<Candidate 1 amendment proposal 1>
In the revision candidate 1, the purchased power and the electric refrigerator 4Cn respond to changes in the cold demand. Since there is only one electric refrigerator 4C, the electric refrigerator 4C adjusts the output of RE1 to cope with an increase in cold demand. The output adjustment amount of RE1 is 100 USRT. Table 6 shows the calculation results. The detailed calculation method agreed with the true increment.

<Candidate 1 revision proposal 2>
In the revision candidate 2, the cogeneration device 4Ai and the absorption chiller 4Dm respond to changes in the cold demand. The absorption refrigerator 4D used RS1. Adjust the output of RS1 to meet the increase in cold demand. The output adjustment amount of RS1 is 100 USRT. For the cogeneration apparatus 4A, calculation was performed separately when CU1 and CU3 were used. Table 7 shows the calculation results when CU1 is used, and Table 8 shows the calculation results when CU3 is used. A case where CU1 is used is a correction plan candidate 2-1 of case 1, and a case where CU3 is used is a correction plan candidate 2-2 of case 1. The detailed calculation method almost coincided with the true increment. Even the simple calculation method was close to the true increment.

<Candidate 1 revision plan candidate 3>
In the revision candidate 3, the cogeneration device 4Ai and the electric refrigerator 4Cn respond to changes in the cold demand. Since there is only one electric refrigerator 4C, the electric refrigerator 4C adjusts the output of RE1 to cope with an increase in cold demand. The output adjustment amount of RE1 is 100 USRT. For the cogeneration apparatus 4A, calculation was performed separately when CU1 and CU3 were used. Table 9 shows the calculation results when CU1 is used, and Table 10 shows the calculation results when CU3 is used. In addition, the case where CU1 is used is the correction plan candidate 3-1 of case 1, and the case where CU3 is used is the correction plan candidate 3-2 of case 1. The detailed calculation method agreed with the true increment. Even in the simple calculation method, the output adjustment amount was almost the same.

<Candidate 1 revision proposal 4>
In the correction plan candidate 4, the cogeneration device 4Ai, the plurality of absorption chillers 4D, and the plurality of electric refrigerators 4C respond to changes in the cold demand. Two absorption refrigerators 4D were used, and only one electric refrigerator 4C was used because it was only one. For the cogeneration apparatus 4A, calculation was performed separately when CU1 and CU3 were used. Table 11 shows the calculation results when CU1 is used, and Table 12 shows the calculation results when CU3 is used. A case where CU1 is used is a correction plan candidate 4-1 for case 1, and a case where CU3 is used is a correction plan candidate 4-2 for case 1. In the detailed calculation method, there is a slight difference in the change in cost, but it almost matches the true value. Even in the simple calculation method, the adjustment amount almost coincides with the true value.

<Case 2: Case where power demand changes>
When the power demand is increased by 100 kW from the predicted value at the time of formulating the operation plan to 3260 kW, the true increment in the correction plan candidates 1 and 2 is compared with the formulated output adjustment amount.

<Candidate 2 revision proposal 1>
In the correction plan candidate 1, the cogeneration device 4Ai, the absorption chiller 4D, and the electric chiller 4C respond to changes in power demand. Two absorption refrigerators 4D were used, and only one electric refrigerator 4C was used because it was only one. For the cogeneration apparatus 4A, calculation was performed separately when CU1 and CU3 were used. Table 13 shows the calculation results when CU1 is used, and Table 14 shows the calculation results when CU3 is used. There is a slight difference in the amount of change in cost, but it almost matches the true value.

<Candidate 2 candidate for revision 2>
In revision plan candidate 2, the change in power demand is covered by purchased power. In this case, since the purchased power only increases by 100 kW, the increase in cost is 100 kW × 16 yen / kW = 1600 yen.

<Case 3: Case where electricity charges change>
When the electricity rate is increased by 2 yen / kW from the set value at the time of formulating the operation plan to 18 yen / kW, the true increment in the correction plan candidate is compared with the formulated output adjustment amount.

<Candidate 3 revision proposal candidates>
The cogeneration device 4Ai, the absorption chiller 4Dm, and the electric chiller 4Cn cope with the change in the electricity bill. The absorption refrigerator 4D used RS1. For the cogeneration apparatus 4A, calculation was performed separately when CU1 and CU3 were used. Table 15 shows the calculation results when CU1 is used, and Table 16 shows the calculation results when CU3 is used. Although there was a slight difference, both were almost true.

<Case 4: Cases where fuel prices change>
When the gas rate is increased by 2 yen / Nm ³ from the set value at the time of formulating the operation plan to 72 yen / Nm ³ , the true increase in the correction proposal candidate is compared with the formulated output adjustment amount.

<Candidate 4 revision proposal candidates>
The cogeneration device 4Ai, the absorption chiller 4Dm, and the electric chiller 4Cn cope with the change in the electricity bill. The absorption refrigerator 4D uses RS1, and since there is only one electric refrigerator 4C, RE1 is used. For the cogeneration apparatus 4A, calculation was performed separately when CU1 and CU3 were used. Table 17 shows the calculation results when CU1 is used, and Table 18 shows the calculation results when CU3 is used. Although there was a slight difference, both were almost true.

Table 6 to Table 18 show the amount of output adjustment and the amount of change in cost when each parameter such as electricity demand, cold demand, electricity rate, and gas rate changes from the values at the time of planning the operation plan. It is. In this way, the amount of output adjustment is first calculated for each revision proposal candidate, and the amount of change in cost is also calculated using it, and the one that can reduce the total cost among the revision proposal candidates corresponding to the applicable case is adopted. do it. For example, the amount of change in the cost of each correction proposal candidate corresponding to case 1 is as shown in Table 19 below.

  According to Table 19, the revision proposal candidate 1 is selected when calculated by the simple calculation method, and the revision proposal candidate 4-1 is selected when calculated by the detailed calculation method. This is a revised plan for the operation plan. As a result of examining this amendment plan at the actual site, if it cannot be executed due to operational reasons, etc., the amendment plan is finely adjusted to match the actual energy system 1 specifications, etc. The third candidate for the cost reduction is considered.

  As described above, according to the correction method, apparatus and program for the energy system operation plan of the present invention, various parameters based on the prediction that is the basis of the operation plan, for example, each demand for electric power, cooling, and heating, electricity charges, and fuel Even if the charge is different from the actual value found on the day of operation, the appropriate output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted can be quickly obtained without re-developing the operation plan on the day of operation. It is possible to revise an appropriate operation plan that immediately responds to a change in parameters without damaging the target at the time of formulating the operation plan, such as minimizing the total cost, without depending on the experience and intuition of the operator.

  The above-described embodiment is an example of a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but is not limited thereto, and various modifications can be made without departing from the gist of the present invention. For example, in the present embodiment, the first-order approximation and the second-order approximation of the Taylor expansion are used as an expression representing the output adjustment amount ΔX of the energy device 4, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the third-order or higher approximation of the Taylor expansion is used. May be.

It is a block diagram which shows an example of an energy system. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the procedure of the correction method of the energy system operation plan of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the procedure of the correction method of the energy system operation plan of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the correction apparatus of the energy system operation plan of this invention.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Energy system 2 Electric power and heat supply means 3 Cold supply means 4 Energy equipment 4A Cogeneration apparatus 4B Boiler apparatus 4C Electric refrigerator 4D Absorption refrigerator 5 Heat exchanger 6 Cooling tower 7 Operation plan formulation means 8 Operation plan correction apparatus

Claims (9)

For an energy system having a power / heat supply means for outputting electric power and heat using fuel as a power source, and a cold / heat supply means for outputting cold power using one or both of the electric power and heat as a power source, the preset power / Satisfy power demand, thermal demand, and cold demand based on the characteristic function of the thermal supply means and the cold supply means, and input parameters including at least power demand, thermal demand, and cold demand predicted for a future operating time period Furthermore, it is a method of correcting the operation plan in which the output amount in the operation time zone of the power / heat supply means and the cold supply means that minimize the objective function or make the objective function the target range is determined, A part of the power / heat supply means and a part of the cold supply means corresponding to a change in part or all of the input parameters Alternatively, a correction plan candidate for adjusting the output amount of all the component devices is prepared in advance, and a relational expression between the amount of change in the input parameter and the output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted is previously determined for the correction plan candidate. When the change amount of the actual input parameter from the predicted value to the true value is clarified during or immediately before the operation of the energy system, the change amount of the actual input parameter is substituted into the relational expression. An operation plan correction method for an energy system, wherein an output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted is obtained and the operation plan is corrected.   The power / heat supply means includes one or more cogeneration devices that simultaneously output electric power and heat using fuel as a power source, and one or more boiler devices that output heat using fuel as a power source. The energy system operation plan correction method according to claim 1, further comprising:   The cold supply means includes one or more electric refrigerators that output cold using electric power as a power source, and one or more absorption refrigerators that output cold using hot heat as a power source. The method for correcting an operation plan for an energy system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the energy system operation plan is corrected.   A part or all of the relational expression is a linear function, the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of the input parameter is obtained in advance, and the actual input parameter change amount from the predicted value to the true value The output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device corresponding to the actual input parameter change amount is obtained from a proportional relationship with the output adjustment amount of the adjustment target device per unit change of the input parameter obtained in advance. The method for correcting an operation plan for an energy system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.   5. The energy system operation plan correction method according to claim 1, wherein a part or all of the characteristic function is a quadratic or higher-order function.   A plurality of correction proposal candidates are prepared for the same case of input parameter change, and the output amounts of some components of the power / heat supply means and the cold supply means are adjusted based on the relational expression, The output amount of the component devices other than the part is fixed as the operation plan, and the value of the objective function when each of the plurality of correction plan candidates is selected is determined, and a plurality of corrections are performed. Claims characterized in that, among proposal candidates, a revision proposal candidate that minimizes the value of the objective function or suppresses the deterioration of the objective function within a target range is adopted as a revision proposal for responding to a change in parameter. The operation plan correction method of the energy system as described in any one of 1 to 5.   The input parameters include predicted values of electric charges and fuel charges, and the objective function satisfies electric power demand, thermal demand, and cold demand, and is necessary for the operation of the electric power / heat supply means and the cold supply means. The method of correcting an operation plan for an energy system according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that the sum of an electricity charge and a fuel charge is represented. For an energy system having a power / heat supply means for outputting electric power and heat using fuel as a power source, and a cold / heat supply means for outputting cold power using one or both of the electric power and heat as a power source, the preset power / Satisfy power demand, thermal demand, and cold demand based on the characteristic function of the thermal supply means and the cold supply means, and input parameters including at least power demand, thermal demand, and cold demand predicted for a future operating time period Furthermore, it is an apparatus that corrects the operation plan in which the output amount in the operation time zone of the power / heat supply means and the cold supply means that minimize the objective function or set the objective function as the target range is determined, A part of the power / heat supply means and a part of the cold supply means corresponding to a change in part or all of the input parameters For pre-prepared amendment candidates other adjusts the output of all of the constituent devices, the amount of change in the input parameters and equation are stored in advance in the output adjustment amount of the adjusting subject to equipment, from the predicted value When the change amount of the actual input parameter to the true value that was clarified during or immediately before the operation of the energy system is input, the change amount of the actual input parameter is substituted into the corresponding relational expression. An operation plan correction device for an energy system, wherein an output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted is obtained and a correction plan for the operation plan is output. For an energy system having a power / heat supply means for outputting electric power and heat using fuel as a power source, and a cold / heat supply means for outputting cold power using one or both of the electric power and heat as a power source, the preset power / Satisfy power demand, thermal demand, and cold demand based on the characteristic function of the thermal supply means and the cold supply means, and input parameters including at least power demand, thermal demand, and cold demand predicted for a future operating time period In addition, a computer is used as an apparatus for correcting an operation plan in which the output amount of the power / heat supply unit and the cold supply unit that have the objective function as a minimum or the objective function as a target range is determined in the operation time zone. This is a program to function, and the power / Regarding a correction plan candidate prepared in advance for adjusting the output amount of some or all of the components of the heat supply means and the cold heat supply means, a relational expression between the change amount of the input parameter and the output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted In advance, means for receiving an input of a change amount of an actual input parameter from a predicted value to a true value that is clarified during or immediately before operation of the energy system, and the corresponding relationship An energy system characterized by having a computer function as means for obtaining an output adjustment amount of the device to be adjusted by substituting a change amount of the actual input parameter into an equation, and means for outputting a correction plan of the operation plan Operation plan correction program.

Images