CN118865600A - Marine disaster data processing method based on remote sensing monitoring - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明涉及海洋灾害数据处理技术领域,具体涉及基于遥感监测的海洋灾害数据处理方法,包括以下步骤:S1:收集关于海洋温度、盐度、海面高度及海洋表层生物活动的数据;S2:对S1中收集的数据进行初步处理;S3:将处理后的数据通过卫星通信系统实时传输到地面处理中心;S4:对S3接收到的数据进行高级分析,识别和预测海洋环境中的微小变化;S5:预测未来48小时内的灾害风险;S6:根据S5的预测结果,自动生成并发布预警信息。本发明,通过整合遥感技术、数据处理算法和信息发布系统,显著提高了海洋灾害预警的实时性和准确性,有效地增强了灾害应对措施的及时性和有效性,减少了灾害对人类社会和环境的影响。
The present invention relates to the field of marine disaster data processing technology, and in particular to a marine disaster data processing method based on remote sensing monitoring, comprising the following steps: S1: collecting data on ocean temperature, salinity, sea level and marine surface biological activities; S2: performing preliminary processing on the data collected in S1; S3: transmitting the processed data to a ground processing center in real time through a satellite communication system; S4: performing advanced analysis on the data received by S3, identifying and predicting minor changes in the marine environment; S5: predicting the disaster risk within the next 48 hours; S6: automatically generating and publishing early warning information based on the prediction results of S5. The present invention significantly improves the real-time and accuracy of marine disaster early warnings by integrating remote sensing technology, data processing algorithms and information release systems, effectively enhances the timeliness and effectiveness of disaster response measures, and reduces the impact of disasters on human society and the environment.
Description
技术领域Technical Field
本发明涉及海洋灾害数据处理技术领域,尤其涉及基于遥感监测的海洋灾害数据处理方法。The present invention relates to the technical field of marine disaster data processing, and in particular to a marine disaster data processing method based on remote sensing monitoring.
背景技术Background Art
近年来,随着气候变化和人类活动的增加,海洋灾害的频发性和破坏力显著提升,如海啸、风暴潮和赤潮等,这些灾害不仅对沿海地区的生态环境造成巨大破坏,还严重威胁到当地居民的生命财产安全,传统的海洋灾害监测方法主要依赖地面站和船舶观测,这些方法在空间覆盖和实时性方面存在较大局限,此外,现有的一些遥感监测技术虽然在一定程度上提高了数据收集的效率,但在数据处理和灾害预测的准确性方面仍存在明显不足。In recent years, with climate change and increased human activities, the frequency and destructiveness of marine disasters have increased significantly, such as tsunamis, storm surges and red tides. These disasters not only cause huge damage to the ecological environment of coastal areas, but also seriously threaten the lives and property of local residents. Traditional marine disaster monitoring methods mainly rely on ground stations and ship observations. These methods have great limitations in spatial coverage and real-time performance. In addition, although some existing remote sensing monitoring technologies have improved the efficiency of data collection to a certain extent, they still have obvious deficiencies in the accuracy of data processing and disaster prediction.
现有技术主要面临以下几个难题:首先,数据收集手段单一,无法全面捕捉海洋环境的多维度信息;其次,数据处理和分析方法缺乏智能化,无法实时识别和预测海洋环境中的微小变化;最后,预警信息发布渠道有限,信息的传递速度和覆盖范围不够,无法及时有效地通知受影响区域的居民和相关部门。Existing technologies mainly face the following difficulties: first, the data collection method is single and cannot fully capture the multi-dimensional information of the marine environment; second, the data processing and analysis methods lack intelligence and cannot identify and predict small changes in the marine environment in real time; finally, the early warning information release channels are limited, and the information transmission speed and coverage are insufficient, making it impossible to promptly and effectively notify residents and relevant departments in the affected areas.
因此,迫切需要一种基于遥感监测的综合性海洋灾害数据处理方法,能够实现多源数据的实时收集、高效处理和精准预测,并通过多渠道快速发布预警信息,以提高灾害响应的及时性和准确性,减少灾害带来的损失。Therefore, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive marine disaster data processing method based on remote sensing monitoring, which can realize the real-time collection, efficient processing and accurate prediction of multi-source data, and quickly release early warning information through multiple channels to improve the timeliness and accuracy of disaster response and reduce the losses caused by disasters.
发明内容Summary of the invention
基于上述目的,本发明提供了基于遥感监测的海洋灾害数据处理方法。Based on the above purpose, the present invention provides a method for processing marine disaster data based on remote sensing monitoring.
基于遥感监测的海洋灾害数据处理方法,包括以下步骤:The method for processing marine disaster data based on remote sensing monitoring includes the following steps:
S1:通过配置在卫星上的多模态传感器系统,包括合成孔径雷达、红外热像仪及高解析光学成像仪,同步收集关于海洋温度、盐度、海面高度及海洋表层生物活动的数据;S1: A multi-modal sensor system on board the satellite, including synthetic aperture radar, infrared thermal imager and high-resolution optical imager, simultaneously collects data on ocean temperature, salinity, sea level height and marine surface biological activity;
S2:在卫星上应用边缘计算技术对S1中收集的数据进行初步处理,包括数据压缩和特征提取;S2: Apply edge computing technology on the satellite to perform preliminary processing on the data collected in S1, including data compression and feature extraction;
S3:将S2中处理后的数据通过卫星通信系统实时传输到地面处理中心,传输过程使用区块链技术以确保数据的安全和完整;S3: The processed data in S2 is transmitted to the ground processing center in real time via the satellite communication system. The transmission process uses blockchain technology to ensure the security and integrity of the data.
S4:在地面处理中心使用预设的深度学习模型对S3接收到的数据进行高级分析,以识别和预测海洋环境中的微小变化;S4: Performs advanced analysis of data received from S3 using a preset deep learning model at the ground processing center to identify and predict subtle changes in the ocean environment;
S5:结合历史灾害数据和S4的分析结果,通过改进的贝叶斯网络模型预测未来48小时内的灾害风险,并将风险分级进行表示;S5: Combine historical disaster data with the analysis results of S4, use the improved Bayesian network model to predict the disaster risk within the next 48 hours, and express the risk level;
S6:根据S5的预测结果,自动生成并发布预警信息,包括灾害类型、受影响区域、预计影响程度及建议防范措施,同时通过地理信息系统进行结果的可视化处理。S6: Based on the prediction results of S5, early warning information is automatically generated and issued, including the type of disaster, affected area, expected impact and recommended preventive measures, and the results are visualized through the geographic information system.
进一步的,所述S1具体包括:Furthermore, the S1 specifically includes:
S11:在卫星上配置合成孔径雷达,用于收集海面高度数据,该合成孔径雷达通过发射微波并接收其回波,计算微波的往返时间,从而精确测量海面的起伏变化;S11: A synthetic aperture radar is installed on the satellite to collect sea surface height data. The synthetic aperture radar transmits microwaves and receives their echoes, calculating the round-trip time of the microwaves, thereby accurately measuring the fluctuations of the sea surface.
S12:同时配置红外热像仪,用于测量海洋表面温度,红外热像仪捕捉海面发出的红外辐射,根据辐射强度来估算温度。S12: It is also equipped with an infrared thermal imager to measure the ocean surface temperature. The infrared thermal imager captures the infrared radiation emitted by the sea surface and estimates the temperature based on the radiation intensity.
S13:配置高解析光学成像仪,用于监测海洋盐度及表层生物活动,通过分析从海洋表层反射的光的光谱特性,能推断出盐度的变化及藻类生物的分布情况;S13: Equipped with a high-resolution optical imager, it is used to monitor ocean salinity and surface biological activities. By analyzing the spectral characteristics of light reflected from the ocean surface, it can infer changes in salinity and the distribution of algae.
S14:上述传感器系统通过高速数据处理器同步处理收集到的数据,并通过卫星上的时间同步系统确保数据的时间标签准确无误。S14: The above sensor system synchronously processes the collected data through a high-speed data processor, and ensures that the time tag of the data is accurate through the time synchronization system on the satellite.
进一步的,所述S2具体包括:Furthermore, the S2 specifically includes:
S21:在卫星上配置边缘计算单元,该单元包括多核处理器和专用的人工智能加速芯片,用于处理S1中收集的多模态传感器数据;S21: An onboard edge computing unit that includes a multi-core processor and a dedicated AI acceleration chip to process the multimodal sensor data collected in S1.
S22:对SAR收集的海面高度数据进行初步处理,具体采用分块压缩算法将原始数据按海域分块压缩,减少数据冗余,压缩过程中保留的特征,包括海面高度的变化幅度和频率;S22: Perform preliminary processing on the sea surface height data collected by SAR. Specifically, the block compression algorithm is used to compress the original data by sea area, reducing data redundancy. The features retained during the compression process include the amplitude and frequency of sea surface height changes.
S23:对红外热像仪收集的海洋表面温度数据进行特征提取,具体使用卷积神经网络模型从温度图像中提取特征,包括温度梯度、异常温升区域;S23: Extract features from the ocean surface temperature data collected by the infrared thermal imager. Specifically, a convolutional neural network model is used to extract features from the temperature image, including temperature gradients and abnormal temperature rise areas.
S24:对高解析光学成像仪收集的盐度和生物活动数据进行光谱分析,利用快速傅里叶变换方法提取反射光谱中的频段信息,以识别盐度变化和生物活动的高频特征,为后续分析奠定基础;S24: Spectral analysis of salinity and biological activity data collected by the high-resolution optical imager was performed, and the frequency band information in the reflectance spectrum was extracted using the fast Fourier transform method to identify the high-frequency characteristics of salinity changes and biological activities, laying the foundation for subsequent analysis;
S25:将S22、S23和S24中处理后的数据进行整合,并通过数据压缩算法将压缩,生成待传输的数据包。S25: Integrate the data processed in S22, S23 and S24, and compress them using a data compression algorithm to generate a data packet to be transmitted.
进一步的,所述S3具体包括:Furthermore, the S3 specifically includes:
S31:在卫星通信系统中配置数据传输模块,所述数据传输模块包括高速数据调制解调器和加密芯片,用于处理S2生成的数据包;S31: configuring a data transmission module in the satellite communication system, wherein the data transmission module includes a high-speed data modem and an encryption chip for processing the data packet generated in S2;
S32:使用高效数据调制解调器将数据包转换为适合卫星通信的信号格式,并通过卫星天线发送至地面接收站,在传输过程中,利用数据链路层协议确保数据包的顺序和完整;S32: Uses an efficient data modem to convert data packets into a signal format suitable for satellite communications and sends them to the ground receiving station via a satellite antenna. During the transmission process, the data link layer protocol is used to ensure the order and integrity of the data packets.
S33:在传输过程中,应用区块链技术对数据包进行安全保护,具体在数据包生成和发送之前,通过哈希函数生成每个数据包的唯一哈希值,并将哈希值存储在区块链的分布式账本中,确保每个数据包在接收时,地面处理中心都能通过对比哈希值来验证数据包的完整和未被篡改;S33: During the transmission process, blockchain technology is used to protect the data packets. Specifically, before the data packets are generated and sent, a unique hash value for each data packet is generated through a hash function, and the hash value is stored in the distributed ledger of the blockchain. This ensures that when each data packet is received, the ground processing center can verify the integrity and non-tampering of the data packet by comparing the hash value;
S34:在地面接收站,配置与卫星通信模块兼容的接收设备,用于接收从卫星传输的数据包,并将其解调回原始数据格式,接收设备同时包括区块链节点,能够实时验证每个数据包的哈希值;S34: At the ground receiving station, a receiving device compatible with the satellite communication module is configured to receive the data packets transmitted from the satellite and demodulate them back to the original data format. The receiving device also includes a blockchain node that can verify the hash value of each data packet in real time;
S35:最后当地面处理中心接收到完整的数据包并验证其完整和安全后,将数据包存储在本地数据存储系统中。S35: Finally, after the ground processing center receives the complete data packet and verifies its integrity and security, it stores the data packet in the local data storage system.
进一步的,所述S4具体包括:Furthermore, the S4 specifically includes:
S41:在地面处理中心配置高性能计算集群,该集群包括多台服务器和图形处理单元,用于运行预设的深度学习模型;S41: Configure a high-performance computing cluster in the ground processing center, which includes multiple servers and graphics processing units to run the preset deep learning model;
S42:将S3接收到并验证的数据包导入深度学习模型的输入接口,所述深度学习模型包括多个卷积神经网络层和循环神经网络层,用于处理不同类型的数据特征;具体在卷积神经网络层中,应用卷积操作提取海洋温度、盐度、海面高度和生物活动数据中的空间特征;该特征包括海面温度梯度、盐度分布模式、海面高度变化及生物活动的时空分布;在循环神经网络层中,处理从卷积神经网络层提取的特征,分析数据的时间序列变化,循环神经网络层能够捕捉数据中的时间依赖关系,包括温度和盐度的周期性变化及海洋环境的短期波动;S42: Importing the data packet received and verified by S3 into the input interface of the deep learning model, wherein the deep learning model includes multiple convolutional neural network layers and recurrent neural network layers, which are used to process different types of data features; specifically, in the convolutional neural network layer, applying convolution operations to extract spatial features in ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height and biological activity data; the features include sea surface temperature gradient, salinity distribution pattern, sea surface height change and spatiotemporal distribution of biological activities; in the recurrent neural network layer, processing the features extracted from the convolutional neural network layer, analyzing the time series changes of the data, and the recurrent neural network layer can capture the time dependency in the data, including the periodic changes in temperature and salinity and the short-term fluctuations in the marine environment;
S43:综合卷积神经网络层和循环神经网络层的输出,深度学习模型将生成多维度的特征向量,用于表示海洋环境的当前状态,并通过对比实时数据和历史数据,以识别出海洋环境中的微小变化。S43: Combining the outputs of the convolutional neural network layer and the recurrent neural network layer, the deep learning model will generate a multi-dimensional feature vector to represent the current state of the marine environment and identify subtle changes in the marine environment by comparing real-time data with historical data.
进一步的,所述S43具体包括:Furthermore, the S43 specifically includes:
S431:将卷积神经网络层的输出特征图进行降维操作,得到空间特征向量,具体先假设卷积神经网络层的输出为三维张量,其维度为:,其中,H表示特征图的高度,W表示特征图的宽度,C表示特征图的通道数,通过全局平均池化层将其降维为一维向量,公式为:S431: Perform dimensionality reduction operation on the output feature map of the convolutional neural network layer to obtain a spatial feature vector. Specifically, assume that the output of the convolutional neural network layer is a three-dimensional tensor , whose dimensions are: , where H represents the height of the feature map, W represents the width of the feature map, and C represents the number of channels of the feature map. The global average pooling layer is used to reduce its dimension to a one-dimensional vector , the formula is:
,其中,表示特征图在位置处的所有通道值; ,in, Indicates that the feature map is at position All channel values at ;
S432:将循环神经网络层的输出序列进行时间聚合操作,得到时间特征向量,先假设循环神经网络层的输出为时间序列矩阵,其维度为:,其中,T表示时间步数,D表示每个时间步的特征维度;接着通过长短期记忆网络的最后一个隐藏状态作为时间特征向量,公式为:,其中是在时间步t的最后一个隐藏状态,表示时间序列数据的整体特征;S432: Perform a time aggregation operation on the output sequence of the recurrent neural network layer to obtain a time feature vector. First, assume that the output of the recurrent neural network layer is a time series matrix , whose dimensions are: , where T represents the number of time steps and D represents the feature dimension of each time step; then the last hidden state of the long short-term memory network is As the time feature vector , the formula is: ,in is the last hidden state at time step t, representing the overall characteristics of the time series data;
S433:将空间特征向量和时间特征向量进行拼接,形成一个综合特征向量,拼接操作公式为:,其中,表示向量拼接操作,生成的维度为;S433: Transform the spatial eigenvector and the time feature vector Splice to form a comprehensive feature vector , the splicing operation formula is: ,in, Represents a vector concatenation operation, resulting in The dimension is ;
S434:通过全连接层对综合特征向量进行处理,生成最终的多维度特征向量,用于表示海洋环境的当前状态,公式为:,其中,W是权重矩阵,维度为,b是偏置向量,维度为F;是激活函数,F表示最终特征向量的维度;S434: Comprehensive feature vector through the fully connected layer Processing to generate the final multi-dimensional feature vector , used to represent the current state of the marine environment, the formula is: , where W is the weight matrix with dimension , b is the bias vector with dimension F; is the activation function, and F represents the dimension of the final feature vector;
S435:将最终的多维度特征向量与历史数据特征向量进行对比,计算两个向量之间的差异度,公式为:S435: The final multi-dimensional feature vector With historical data feature vector Compare and calculate the difference between the two vectors. The formula is:
,其中,表示历史数据的特征向量,表示欧氏距离,用于量化当前状态与历史数据之间的差异; ,in, The feature vector representing the historical data, Represents the Euclidean distance, which is used to quantify the difference between the current state and historical data;
S436:基于计算得到的差异度,设定阈值来判断是否存在微小变化,当时,则判定为存在显著变化。S436: Based on the calculated difference , set the threshold To determine whether there is a small change, , it is judged that there is a significant change.
进一步的,所述S5具体包括:Furthermore, the S5 specifically includes:
S51:在地面处理中心配置改进的贝叶斯网络模型,该改进的贝叶斯网络模型预先训练以包含历史灾害数据和相关环境特征,模型结构中包括节点和边,节点表示不同的环境变量,边表示变量之间的条件依赖关系;S51: configuring an improved Bayesian network model in the ground processing center, the improved Bayesian network model is pre-trained to include historical disaster data and related environmental characteristics, the model structure includes nodes and edges, the nodes represent different environmental variables, and the edges represent conditional dependencies between the variables;
S52:将S4中生成的当前海洋环境的多维度特征向量输入到贝叶斯网络模型中,通过更新节点的概率分布,并结合当前特征和历史数据,计算各个节点的条件概率;S52: The multi-dimensional feature vector of the current ocean environment generated in S4 Input into the Bayesian network model, calculate the conditional probability of each node by updating the probability distribution of the node and combining the current features and historical data;
S53:根据贝叶斯网络模型的输出,预测未来48小时内的灾害风险,生成每个灾害类型的概率分布,高概率的灾害类型被标记为潜在风险;S53: Based on the output of the Bayesian network model, the disaster risk within the next 48 hours is predicted, and the probability distribution of each disaster type is generated. The disaster types with high probability are marked as potential risks;
S54:将潜在灾害风险进行分级表示,根据模型输出的概率值,具体将风险划分为不同等级,包括低风险、中等风险和高风险。S54: Potential disaster risks are graded and divided into different levels, including low risk, medium risk and high risk, according to the probability value output by the model.
进一步的,所述S51具体包括:Furthermore, the S51 specifically includes:
S511:先在地面处理中心配置高性能计算集群,用于构建和训练贝叶斯网络模型,计算集群包括多台服务器和高效并行处理单元,以确保模型训练和推断的效率;S511: First, configure a high-performance computing cluster in the ground processing center to build and train the Bayesian network model. The computing cluster includes multiple servers and efficient parallel processing units to ensure the efficiency of model training and inference;
S512:构建贝叶斯网络模型,定义模型的节点和边,节点表示不同的环境变量,包括海洋温度、盐度、海面高度和生物活动;边表示变量之间的条件依赖关系;S512: Build a Bayesian network model and define the nodes and edges of the model. The nodes represent different environmental variables, including ocean temperature, salinity, sea level height, and biological activity; the edges represent the conditional dependencies between variables.
S513:为每个节点定义条件概率表,具体对于节点海洋温度T的条件概率表,用于表示海洋温度在不同环境条件下的概率分布,表示为,其中,表示节点T的父节点集合;S513: define a conditional probability table for each node. Specifically, the conditional probability table of the node ocean temperature T is used to represent the probability distribution of the ocean temperature under different environmental conditions, which is expressed as ,in, Represents the parent node set of node T;
S514:使用最大期望算法对贝叶斯网络模型进行参数估计,最大期望算法在给定初始参数和数据的情况下,通过迭代优化参数,最大化观测数据的似然函数,迭代过程包括期望步骤和最大化步骤;所述期望步骤用于计算给定当前参数下未观测变量的期望值;最大化步骤用于更新参数,使得在期望步骤中计算的期望值下,似然函数达到最大;S514: using a maximum expectation algorithm to estimate the parameters of the Bayesian network model. The maximum expectation algorithm maximizes the likelihood function of the observed data by iteratively optimizing the parameters given the initial parameters and data. The iterative process includes an expectation step and a maximization step. The expectation step is used to calculate the expected value of the unobserved variable given the current parameters. The maximization step is used to update the parameters so that the likelihood function reaches the maximum under the expected value calculated in the expectation step.
S515:最后对模型进行交叉验证,通过将历史数据分成训练集和验证集,评估模型的预测性能,避免过拟合。S515: Finally, the model is cross-validated to evaluate the prediction performance of the model and avoid overfitting by dividing the historical data into a training set and a validation set.
进一步的,所述S53具体包括:Furthermore, the S53 specifically includes:
S531:先从贝叶斯网络模型中获取当前海洋环境的多维度特征向量,该特征向量包括海洋温度T、盐度S、海面高度H和生物活动B的当前状态;S531: First obtain the multi-dimensional feature vector of the current ocean environment from the Bayesian network model , the feature vector includes the current state of ocean temperature T, salinity S, sea surface height H and biological activity B;
S532:利用贝叶斯网络模型对每个灾害类型的条件概率进行计算,预设灾害类型包括海啸、风暴潮和赤潮,贝叶斯网络模型通过以下公式计算每个灾害类型的条件概率:,其中是灾害类型的先验概率,是在灾害类型下当前环境特征的条件概率,是当前环境特征的边缘概率;S532: Use the Bayesian network model to calculate the conditional probability of each disaster type, and the preset disaster types include tsunamis , Storm Surge and red tide , the Bayesian network model calculates the conditional probability of each disaster type through the following formula: ,in Is the type of disaster The prior probability of In the disaster type Current environment characteristics The conditional probability of It is the current environment characteristic The marginal probability of
S533:通过贝叶斯推断计算每个灾害类型的条件概率分布,预设贝叶斯网络模型已知节点和边的条件概率表,使用贝叶斯公式结合当前特征向量更新各个节点的概率分布;S533: Calculate the conditional probability distribution of each disaster type through Bayesian inference, preset the conditional probability table of known nodes and edges of the Bayesian network model, and use the Bayesian formula combined with the current feature vector Update the probability distribution of each node;
S534:对于每个灾害类型,计算其未来48小时内的发生概率,具体利用动态贝叶斯网络,将时间序列数据扩展为多个时间切片,通过前向算法进行概率推断,具体公式为:;其中,表示在时间灾害类型的概率,表示时间的灾害类型,表示时间t的灾害类型,表示在时间t灾害类型下时间灾害类型的条件概率,表示当前环境特征下时间t灾害类型的条件概率;S534: For each disaster type, calculate its probability of occurrence within the next 48 hours. Specifically, use the dynamic Bayesian network to expand the time series data into multiple time slices and perform probability inference through the forward algorithm. The specific formula is: ;in, Indicates at time Disaster Type The probability of Indicates time Types of disasters , Indicates the disaster type at time t , Indicates the disaster type at time t Next time Disaster Type The conditional probability of Indicates the current environment characteristics Disaster type at time t The conditional probability of
S535:根据计算结果,生成每个灾害类型的概率分布图,用于显示不同灾害类型在未来48小时内的发生概率,并通过概率值高低标记潜在风险。S535: Based on the calculation results, a probability distribution diagram for each disaster type is generated to display the probability of occurrence of different disaster types in the next 48 hours, and potential risks are marked by high and low probability values.
进一步的,所述S6具体包括:Furthermore, the S6 specifically includes:
S61:收集并整合S5步骤中贝叶斯网络模型的预测结果,确定每个灾害类型的发生概率和风险等级,包括海啸、风暴潮和赤潮;S61: Collect and integrate the prediction results of the Bayesian network model in step S5 to determine the probability and risk level of each disaster type, including tsunamis, storm surges, and red tides;
S62:根据预测结果,自动生成预警信息,预警信息包括灾害类型、受影响区域、预计影响程度以及建议防范措施;S62: Automatically generate warning information based on the prediction results, including the disaster type, affected area, expected impact, and recommended preventive measures;
S63:将生成的预警信息输入到地理信息系统中,进行结果的可视化处理,具体步骤包括:S63: Input the generated warning information into the geographic information system and perform visualization of the results. The specific steps include:
首先,将预警信息转换为地理信息系统兼容的数据格式,包括地理坐标、区域多边形和风险等级属性;First, the warning information is converted into a GIS-compatible data format, including geographic coordinates, regional polygons, and risk level attributes;
然后:在地理信息系统平台上绘制受影响区域的地图,使用不同颜色和标记表示不同的灾害类型和风险等级;Then: Map the affected area on a GIS platform, using different colors and markers to represent different hazard types and risk levels;
最后:结合实时监测数据和预测结果,动态更新地图信息;Finally: Combine real-time monitoring data and forecast results to dynamically update map information;
S64:通过多渠道发布预警信息,确保信息广泛传播,多渠道包括移动应用、社交媒体。S64: Release warning information through multiple channels to ensure wide dissemination of information, including mobile applications and social media.
本发明的有益效果:Beneficial effects of the present invention:
本发明,通过集成多模态传感器系统、边缘计算、区块链技术、深度学习模型和贝叶斯网络模型,实现了海洋灾害数据的实时收集、高效处理和精准预测,具体而言,多模态传感器系统能够全面捕捉海洋环境的多维度信息,边缘计算技术在卫星上进行初步数据处理,显著提高了数据传输效率,区块链技术确保数据传输过程中的安全性和完整性,深度学习模型能够准确识别和分析海洋环境中的微小变化,而贝叶斯网络模型则结合历史数据进行风险预测,大大提升了灾害预警的准确性,The present invention realizes the real-time collection, efficient processing and accurate prediction of marine disaster data by integrating multimodal sensor system, edge computing, blockchain technology, deep learning model and Bayesian network model. Specifically, the multimodal sensor system can comprehensively capture the multi-dimensional information of the marine environment, edge computing technology performs preliminary data processing on the satellite, significantly improves the data transmission efficiency, blockchain technology ensures the security and integrity of the data transmission process, the deep learning model can accurately identify and analyze the slight changes in the marine environment, and the Bayesian network model combines historical data for risk prediction, which greatly improves the accuracy of disaster warning.
本发明,通过地理信息系统GIS进行结果的可视化处理,并通过多渠道发布预警信息,确保预警信息的广泛传播和及时传达,预警信息详细涵盖了灾害类型、受影响区域、预计影响程度及建议防范措施,为决策者和公众提供了可靠的参考依据,综合这些技术优势,有效提高了海洋灾害监测和预警的效率和准确性,增强了对灾害的响应能力,有助于提前采取有效的防范措施,减少灾害造成的损失,保障沿海地区居民的生命财产安全。The present invention uses the geographic information system GIS to visualize the results and releases warning information through multiple channels to ensure the wide dissemination and timely communication of warning information. The warning information covers in detail the type of disaster, affected area, expected impact and recommended preventive measures, providing a reliable reference for decision makers and the public. Combining these technical advantages, the efficiency and accuracy of marine disaster monitoring and early warning are effectively improved, the response capability to disasters is enhanced, and it is helpful to take effective preventive measures in advance, reduce the losses caused by disasters, and protect the lives and property of residents in coastal areas.
附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
为了更清楚地说明本发明或现有技术中的技术方案,下面将对实施例或现有技术描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍,显而易见地,下面描述中的附图仅仅是本发明,对于本领域普通技术人员来讲,在不付出创造性劳动的前提下,还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only for the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.
图1为本发明实施例的海洋灾害数据处理方法示意图;FIG1 is a schematic diagram of a method for processing marine disaster data according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图2为本发明实施例的配置改进的贝叶斯网络模型流程示意图。FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a configuration-improved Bayesian network model process according to an embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式DETAILED DESCRIPTION
为使本发明的目的、技术方案和优点更加清楚明白,以下结合具体实施例,对本发明进一步详细说明。In order to make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with specific embodiments.
如图1-图2所示,基于遥感监测的海洋灾害数据处理方法,包括以下步骤:As shown in Figures 1 and 2, the method for processing marine disaster data based on remote sensing monitoring includes the following steps:
S1:通过配置在卫星上的多模态传感器系统,包括合成孔径雷达(SAR)、红外热像仪及高解析光学成像仪,同步收集关于海洋温度、盐度、海面高度及海洋表层生物活动的数据;S1: A multi-modal sensor system on board the satellite, including synthetic aperture radar (SAR), infrared thermal imager and high-resolution optical imager, simultaneously collects data on ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height and marine surface biological activity;
S2:在卫星上应用边缘计算技术对S1中收集的数据进行初步处理,包括数据压缩和特征提取,以优化数据传输效率和减少传输时延;S2: Apply edge computing technology on the satellite to perform preliminary processing on the data collected in S1, including data compression and feature extraction, to optimize data transmission efficiency and reduce transmission latency;
S3:将S2中处理后的数据通过卫星通信系统实时传输到地面处理中心,传输过程使用区块链技术以确保数据的安全和完整;S3: The processed data in S2 is transmitted to the ground processing center in real time via the satellite communication system. The transmission process uses blockchain technology to ensure the security and integrity of the data.
S4:在地面处理中心使用预设的深度学习模型对S3接收到的数据进行高级分析,以识别和预测海洋环境中的微小变化;S4: Performs advanced analysis of data received from S3 using a preset deep learning model at the ground processing center to identify and predict subtle changes in the ocean environment;
S5:结合历史灾害数据和S4的分析结果,通过改进的贝叶斯网络模型预测未来48小时内的灾害风险,并将风险分级进行表示;S5: Combine historical disaster data with the analysis results of S4, use the improved Bayesian network model to predict the disaster risk within the next 48 hours, and express the risk level;
S6:根据S5的预测结果,自动生成并发布预警信息,包括灾害类型、受影响区域、预计影响程度及建议防范措施,同时通过地理信息系统(GIS)进行结果的可视化处理,确保信息的快速传达与决策支持。S6: Based on the prediction results of S5, early warning information is automatically generated and issued, including disaster type, affected area, expected impact and recommended preventive measures. At the same time, the results are visualized through the Geographic Information System (GIS) to ensure rapid communication of information and decision support.
S1具体包括:S1 specifically includes:
S11:在卫星上配置合成孔径雷达(SAR),用于收集海面高度数据,该合成孔径雷达通过发射微波并接收其回波,计算微波的往返时间,从而精确测量海面的起伏变化,用于海洋灾害如海啸或风暴潮的监测;S11: A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is installed on the satellite to collect sea surface height data. The SAR transmits microwaves, receives their echoes, and calculates the round-trip time of the microwaves, thereby accurately measuring the fluctuations of the sea surface for monitoring marine disasters such as tsunamis or storm surges.
S12:同时配置红外热像仪,用于测量海洋表面温度,红外热像仪捕捉海面发出的红外辐射,根据辐射强度来估算温度,该数据对于分析海洋暖流、洋流变化及其对气候的影响至关重要。S12: It is also equipped with an infrared thermal imager to measure the ocean surface temperature. The infrared thermal imager captures the infrared radiation emitted by the sea surface and estimates the temperature based on the radiation intensity. This data is crucial for analyzing ocean warm currents, ocean current changes and their impact on climate.
S13:配置高解析光学成像仪,用于监测海洋盐度及表层生物活动,通过分析从海洋表层反射的光的光谱特性,能推断出盐度的变化及藻类生物的分布情况,这对于评估生态系统健康和生物多样性具有重要意义;S13: Equipped with a high-resolution optical imager, it is used to monitor ocean salinity and surface biological activity. By analyzing the spectral characteristics of light reflected from the ocean surface, it can infer changes in salinity and the distribution of algae, which is of great significance for assessing ecosystem health and biodiversity.
S14:上述传感器系统通过高速数据处理器同步处理收集到的数据,并通过卫星上的时间同步系统确保数据的时间标签准确无误,以支持后续数据的精确分析和实时监测;上述步骤不仅提高了数据收集的精度和范围,还确保了数据的实时性和可靠性,对于快速响应海洋灾害提供了支持,通过这种方式,可以大大增强海洋灾害预警和研究的能力,减少灾害造成的损失,并为科学研究提供高质量的数据。S14: The above sensor system synchronously processes the collected data through a high-speed data processor, and ensures that the time tag of the data is accurate through the time synchronization system on the satellite to support precise analysis and real-time monitoring of subsequent data; the above steps not only improve the accuracy and scope of data collection, but also ensure the real-time and reliability of the data, and provide support for rapid response to marine disasters. In this way, the ability of marine disaster warning and research can be greatly enhanced, the losses caused by disasters can be reduced, and high-quality data can be provided for scientific research.
S2具体包括:S2 specifically includes:
S21:在卫星上配置边缘计算单元,该单元包括多核处理器和专用的人工智能加速芯片,用于处理S1中收集的多模态传感器数据;S21: An onboard edge computing unit that includes a multi-core processor and a dedicated AI acceleration chip to process the multimodal sensor data collected in S1.
S22:对SAR收集的海面高度数据进行初步处理,具体采用分块压缩算法将原始数据按海域分块压缩,减少数据冗余,保证数据传输的效率和有效性,压缩过程中保留的特征,包括海面高度的变化幅度和频率;S22: Perform preliminary processing on the sea surface height data collected by SAR. Specifically, the block compression algorithm is used to compress the original data by sea area, reduce data redundancy, ensure the efficiency and effectiveness of data transmission, and retain the features in the compression process, including the amplitude and frequency of sea surface height changes;
S23:对红外热像仪收集的海洋表面温度数据进行特征提取,具体使用卷积神经网络(CNN)模型从温度图像中提取特征,包括温度梯度、异常温升区域,为后续的深度学习分析提供精简且有用的数据;S23: Extract features from the ocean surface temperature data collected by the infrared thermal imager. Specifically, a convolutional neural network (CNN) model is used to extract features from the temperature image, including temperature gradients and abnormal temperature rise areas, to provide concise and useful data for subsequent deep learning analysis.
S24:对高解析光学成像仪收集的盐度和生物活动数据进行光谱分析,利用快速傅里叶变换(FFT)方法提取反射光谱中的频段信息,以识别盐度变化和生物活动的高频特征,为后续分析奠定基础;S24: Spectral analysis of salinity and biological activity data collected by the high-resolution optical imager was performed, and the frequency band information in the reflectance spectrum was extracted using the fast Fourier transform (FFT) method to identify the high-frequency characteristics of salinity changes and biological activities, laying the foundation for subsequent analysis;
S25:将S22、S23和S24中处理后的数据进行整合,并通过数据压缩算法将压缩,生成待传输的数据包;通过在卫星上应用上述边缘计算技术,可以显著提升数据处理和传输的效率,减少地面处理中心的负担,同时确保关键数据的完整性和实用性,这种方法增强了实时监测能力,提高了海洋灾害数据处理系统的整体性能。S25: Integrate the data processed in S22, S23 and S24, and compress them through a data compression algorithm to generate data packets to be transmitted; by applying the above-mentioned edge computing technology on satellites, the efficiency of data processing and transmission can be significantly improved, reducing the burden on ground processing centers while ensuring the integrity and practicality of key data. This method enhances real-time monitoring capabilities and improves the overall performance of the marine disaster data processing system.
S3具体包括:S3 specifically includes:
S31:在卫星通信系统中配置数据传输模块,数据传输模块包括高速数据调制解调器和加密芯片,用于处理S2生成的数据包;S31: configuring a data transmission module in the satellite communication system, the data transmission module including a high-speed data modem and an encryption chip for processing the data packet generated by S2;
S32:使用高效数据调制解调器将数据包转换为适合卫星通信的信号格式,并通过卫星天线发送至地面接收站,在传输过程中,利用数据链路层协议确保数据包的顺序和完整;S32: Uses an efficient data modem to convert data packets into a signal format suitable for satellite communications and sends them to the ground receiving station via a satellite antenna. During the transmission process, the data link layer protocol is used to ensure the order and integrity of the data packets.
S33:在传输过程中,应用区块链技术对数据包进行安全保护,具体在数据包生成和发送之前,通过哈希函数生成每个数据包的唯一哈希值,并将哈希值存储在区块链的分布式账本中,确保每个数据包在接收时,地面处理中心都能通过对比哈希值来验证数据包的完整和未被篡改;S33: During the transmission process, blockchain technology is used to protect the data packets. Specifically, before the data packets are generated and sent, a unique hash value for each data packet is generated through a hash function, and the hash value is stored in the distributed ledger of the blockchain. This ensures that when each data packet is received, the ground processing center can verify the integrity and non-tampering of the data packet by comparing the hash value;
S34:在地面接收站,配置与卫星通信模块兼容的接收设备,用于接收从卫星传输的数据包,并将其解调回原始数据格式,接收设备同时包括区块链节点,能够实时验证每个数据包的哈希值;S34: At the ground receiving station, a receiving device compatible with the satellite communication module is configured to receive the data packets transmitted from the satellite and demodulate them back to the original data format. The receiving device also includes a blockchain node that can verify the hash value of each data packet in real time;
S35:最后当地面处理中心接收到完整的数据包并验证其完整和安全后,将数据包存储在本地数据存储系统中,准备进行后续的深度分析和处理;通过上述步骤,确保了S2步骤中处理后的数据包在传输过程中安全且无误,利用区块链技术保证了数据传输的安全性和完整性,防止数据包被篡改或丢失,提供了一个可靠的实时数据传输机制。S35: Finally, when the ground processing center receives the complete data packet and verifies its integrity and security, it stores the data packet in the local data storage system, ready for subsequent in-depth analysis and processing; through the above steps, it ensures that the data packet processed in step S2 is safe and correct during the transmission process, and uses blockchain technology to ensure the security and integrity of data transmission, prevent the data packet from being tampered with or lost, and provide a reliable real-time data transmission mechanism.
S4具体包括:S4 specifically includes:
S41:在地面处理中心配置高性能计算集群,该集群包括多台服务器和图形处理单元(GPU),用于运行预设的深度学习模型,深度学习模型已针对海洋环境数据进行了训练;S41: Configure a high-performance computing cluster in the ground processing center, which includes multiple servers and graphics processing units (GPUs) to run the preset deep learning model, which has been trained on marine environment data;
S42:将S3接收到并验证的数据包导入深度学习模型的输入接口,深度学习模型包括多个卷积神经网络(CNN)层和循环神经网络(RNN)层,用于处理不同类型的数据特征;具体在卷积神经网络层中,应用卷积操作提取海洋温度、盐度、海面高度和生物活动数据中的空间特征;该特征包括海面温度梯度、盐度分布模式、海面高度变化及生物活动的时空分布;在循环神经网络(RNN)层中,处理从卷积神经网络层提取的特征,分析数据的时间序列变化,循环神经网络层能够捕捉数据中的时间依赖关系,包括温度和盐度的周期性变化及海洋环境的短期波动;S42: Import the data packet received and verified by S3 into the input interface of the deep learning model. The deep learning model includes multiple convolutional neural network (CNN) layers and recurrent neural network (RNN) layers, which are used to process different types of data features. Specifically, in the convolutional neural network layer, convolution operations are applied to extract spatial features in ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height and biological activity data. The features include sea surface temperature gradient, salinity distribution pattern, sea surface height change and spatiotemporal distribution of biological activities. In the recurrent neural network (RNN) layer, the features extracted from the convolutional neural network layer are processed to analyze the time series changes of the data. The recurrent neural network layer can capture the time dependency in the data, including the periodic changes in temperature and salinity and the short-term fluctuations in the marine environment.
S43:综合卷积神经网络层和循环神经网络层的输出,深度学习模型将生成多维度的特征向量,用于表示海洋环境的当前状态,并通过对比实时数据和历史数据,以识别出海洋环境中的微小变化;通过在地面处理中心使用高性能计算集群和预设的深度学习模型,能够高效地对海洋环境数据进行高级分析,精确识别和预测微小的环境变化,结合卷积神经网络和循环神经网络的优势,模型能够捕捉海洋数据的空间和时间特征,显著提高了灾害预警的准确性和实时性,增强了对海洋灾害的响应能力。S43: By integrating the outputs of the convolutional neural network layer and the recurrent neural network layer, the deep learning model will generate a multi-dimensional feature vector to represent the current state of the marine environment, and identify subtle changes in the marine environment by comparing real-time data with historical data. By using a high-performance computing cluster and a preset deep learning model in the ground processing center, it can efficiently perform advanced analysis of marine environmental data, accurately identify and predict subtle environmental changes. Combining the advantages of convolutional neural networks and recurrent neural networks, the model can capture the spatial and temporal characteristics of marine data, significantly improving the accuracy and real-time nature of disaster warnings and enhancing the ability to respond to marine disasters.
S43具体包括:S43 specifically includes:
S431:将卷积神经网络层的输出特征图进行降维操作,得到空间特征向量,具体先假设卷积神经网络层的输出为三维张量,其维度为:,其中,H表示特征图的高度,W表示特征图的宽度,C表示特征图的通道数,通过全局平均池化层(GlobalAveragePooling,GAP)将其降维为一维向量,公式为:S431: Perform dimensionality reduction operation on the output feature map of the convolutional neural network layer to obtain a spatial feature vector. Specifically, assume that the output of the convolutional neural network layer is a three-dimensional tensor , whose dimensions are: , where H represents the height of the feature map, W represents the width of the feature map, and C represents the number of channels of the feature map. The global average pooling layer (GlobalAveragePooling, GAP) reduces its dimension to a one-dimensional vector , the formula is:
,其中,表示特征图在位置处的所有通道值; ,in, Indicates that the feature map is at position All channel values at ;
S432:将循环神经网络(RNN)层的输出序列进行时间聚合操作,得到时间特征向量,先假设循环神经网络层的输出为时间序列矩阵,其维度为:,其中,T表示时间步数,D表示每个时间步的特征维度;接着通过长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的最后一个隐藏状态作为时间特征向量,公式为:,其中是在时间步t的最后一个隐藏状态,表示时间序列数据的整体特征;S432: Perform a time aggregation operation on the output sequence of the recurrent neural network (RNN) layer to obtain a time feature vector. First, assume that the output of the recurrent neural network layer is a time series matrix , whose dimensions are: , where T represents the number of time steps and D represents the feature dimension of each time step; then the last hidden state of the long short-term memory network (LSTM) is As the time feature vector , the formula is: ,in is the last hidden state at time step t, representing the overall characteristics of the time series data;
S433:将空间特征向量和时间特征向量进行拼接,形成一个综合特征向量,拼接操作公式为:,其中,表示向量拼接操作,生成的维度为;S433: Transform the spatial eigenvector and the time feature vector Splice to form a comprehensive feature vector , the splicing operation formula is: ,in, Represents a vector concatenation operation, resulting in The dimension is ;
S434:通过全连接层(Fully Connected Layer,FC)对综合特征向量进行处理,生成最终的多维度特征向量,用于表示海洋环境的当前状态,公式为:,其中,W是权重矩阵,维度为,b是偏置向量,维度为F;是激活函数,F表示最终特征向量的维度;S434: Comprehensive feature vector through the fully connected layer (FC) Processing to generate the final multi-dimensional feature vector , used to represent the current state of the marine environment, the formula is: , where W is the weight matrix with dimension , b is the bias vector with dimension F; is the activation function, and F represents the dimension of the final feature vector;
S435:将最终的多维度特征向量与历史数据特征向量进行对比,计算两个向量之间的差异度,公式为:S435: The final multi-dimensional feature vector With historical data feature vector Compare and calculate the difference between the two vectors. The formula is:
,其中,表示历史数据的特征向量,表示欧氏距离,用于量化当前状态与历史数据之间的差异; ,in, The feature vector representing the historical data, Represents the Euclidean distance, which is used to quantify the difference between the current state and historical data;
S436:基于计算得到的差异度,设定阈值来判断是否存在微小变化,当时,则判定为存在显著变化;通过上述详细的特征向量生成和对比步骤,利用卷积神经网络和循环神经网络提取的空间和时间特征,生成准确表示海洋环境当前状态的多维度特征向量,并通过对比实时数据和历史数据,能够有效识别出海洋环境中的微小变化,从而提高海洋灾害预警的准确性和响应速度,确保及时采取相应的防范措施。S436: Based on the calculated difference , set the threshold To determine whether there is a small change, Through the above-mentioned detailed steps of feature vector generation and comparison, the spatial and temporal features extracted by convolutional neural networks and recurrent neural networks are used to generate a multi-dimensional feature vector that accurately represents the current state of the marine environment. By comparing real-time data with historical data, small changes in the marine environment can be effectively identified, thereby improving the accuracy and response speed of marine disaster warnings and ensuring that corresponding preventive measures are taken in a timely manner.
S5具体包括:S5 specifically includes:
S51:在地面处理中心配置改进的贝叶斯网络模型,该改进的贝叶斯网络模型预先训练以包含历史灾害数据和相关环境特征,模型结构中包括节点和边,节点表示不同的环境变量,边表示变量之间的条件依赖关系;S51: configuring an improved Bayesian network model in the ground processing center, the improved Bayesian network model is pre-trained to include historical disaster data and related environmental characteristics, the model structure includes nodes and edges, the nodes represent different environmental variables, and the edges represent conditional dependencies between the variables;
S52:将S4中生成的当前海洋环境的多维度特征向量输入到贝叶斯网络模型中,通过更新节点的概率分布,并结合当前特征和历史数据,计算各个节点的条件概率;S52: The multi-dimensional feature vector of the current ocean environment generated in S4 Input into the Bayesian network model, calculate the conditional probability of each node by updating the probability distribution of the node and combining the current features and historical data;
S53:根据贝叶斯网络模型的输出,预测未来48小时内的灾害风险,生成每个灾害类型的概率分布,高概率的灾害类型被标记为潜在风险;S53: Based on the output of the Bayesian network model, the disaster risk within the next 48 hours is predicted, and the probability distribution of each disaster type is generated. The disaster types with high probability are marked as potential risks;
S54:将潜在灾害风险进行分级表示,根据模型输出的概率值,具体将风险划分为不同等级,包括低风险、中等风险和高风险。S54: Potential disaster risks are graded and divided into different levels, including low risk, medium risk and high risk, according to the probability value output by the model.
S51具体包括:S51 specifically includes:
S511:先在地面处理中心配置高性能计算集群,用于构建和训练贝叶斯网络模型,计算集群包括多台服务器和高效并行处理单元(如GPU),以确保模型训练和推断的效率;S511: First, configure a high-performance computing cluster in the ground processing center to build and train the Bayesian network model. The computing cluster includes multiple servers and efficient parallel processing units (such as GPUs) to ensure the efficiency of model training and inference;
S512:构建贝叶斯网络模型,定义模型的节点和边,节点表示不同的环境变量,包括海洋温度、盐度、海面高度和生物活动;边表示变量之间的条件依赖关系,模型的初始结构通过专家知识和历史数据进行设计;S512: Build a Bayesian network model and define the nodes and edges of the model. The nodes represent different environmental variables, including ocean temperature, salinity, sea level and biological activity; the edges represent the conditional dependencies between variables. The initial structure of the model is designed based on expert knowledge and historical data.
S513:为每个节点定义条件概率表(CPT),具体对于节点海洋温度T的条件概率表,用于表示海洋温度在不同环境条件下的概率分布,表示为,其中,表示节点T的父节点集合,条件概率表通过统计历史数据来估计;S513: Define a conditional probability table (CPT) for each node. Specifically, the conditional probability table of the node ocean temperature T is used to represent the probability distribution of the ocean temperature under different environmental conditions, which is expressed as ,in, Represents the parent node set of node T. The conditional probability table is estimated by statistical historical data;
S514:使用最大期望(EM)算法对贝叶斯网络模型进行参数估计,最大期望算法在给定初始参数和数据的情况下,通过迭代优化参数,最大化观测数据的似然函数,迭代过程包括期望步骤(E-step)和最大化步骤(M-step);期望步骤用于计算给定当前参数下未观测变量的期望值;最大化步骤用于更新参数,使得在期望步骤中计算的期望值下,似然函数达到最大;S514: Use the maximum expectation (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of the Bayesian network model. The maximum expectation algorithm maximizes the likelihood function of the observed data by iteratively optimizing the parameters given the initial parameters and data. The iterative process includes an expectation step (E-step) and a maximization step (M-step). The expectation step is used to calculate the expected value of the unobserved variable given the current parameters. The maximization step is used to update the parameters so that the likelihood function reaches the maximum under the expected value calculated in the expectation step.
S515:最后对模型进行交叉验证,通过将历史数据分成训练集和验证集,评估模型的预测性能,交叉验证有助于调整模型结构和参数,避免过拟合;通过在地面处理中心配置和训练改进的贝叶斯网络模型,可以精确构建环境变量之间的条件依赖关系,并通过历史数据的统计和优化,提升模型的预测准确性和可靠性,利用高性能计算集群和最大期望算法,确保了模型训练的效率和效果,为后续灾害风险的准确预测奠定了坚实基础。S515: Finally, the model is cross-validated. The prediction performance of the model is evaluated by dividing the historical data into training set and validation set. Cross-validation helps to adjust the model structure and parameters to avoid overfitting. By configuring and training the improved Bayesian network model in the ground processing center, the conditional dependency relationship between environmental variables can be accurately constructed. The prediction accuracy and reliability of the model can be improved through the statistics and optimization of historical data. The high-performance computing cluster and the maximum expectation algorithm are used to ensure the efficiency and effectiveness of model training, laying a solid foundation for the accurate prediction of subsequent disaster risks.
S53具体包括:S53 specifically includes:
S531:先从贝叶斯网络模型中获取当前海洋环境的多维度特征向量,该特征向量包括海洋温度T、盐度S、海面高度H和生物活动B的当前状态;S531: First obtain the multi-dimensional feature vector of the current ocean environment from the Bayesian network model , the feature vector includes the current state of ocean temperature T, salinity S, sea surface height H and biological activity B;
S532:利用贝叶斯网络模型对每个灾害类型的条件概率进行计算,预设灾害类型包括海啸、风暴潮和赤潮,贝叶斯网络模型通过以下公式计算每个灾害类型的条件概率:,其中是灾害类型的先验概率,是在灾害类型下当前环境特征的条件概率,是当前环境特征的边缘概率;S532: Use the Bayesian network model to calculate the conditional probability of each disaster type, and the preset disaster types include tsunamis , Storm Surge and red tide , the Bayesian network model calculates the conditional probability of each disaster type through the following formula: ,in Is the type of disaster The prior probability of In the disaster type Current environment characteristics The conditional probability of It is the current environment characteristic The marginal probability of
S533:通过贝叶斯推断计算每个灾害类型的条件概率分布,预设贝叶斯网络模型已知节点和边的条件概率表,使用贝叶斯公式结合当前特征向量更新各个节点的概率分布;S533: Calculate the conditional probability distribution of each disaster type through Bayesian inference, preset the conditional probability table of known nodes and edges of the Bayesian network model, and use the Bayesian formula combined with the current feature vector Update the probability distribution of each node;
S534:对于每个灾害类型,计算其未来48小时内的发生概率,具体利用动态贝叶斯网络(DBN),将时间序列数据扩展为多个时间切片,通过前向算法(ForwardAlgorithm)进行概率推断,具体公式为:;其中,表示在时间灾害类型的概率,表示时间的灾害类型,表示时间t的灾害类型,表示在时间t灾害类型下时间灾害类型的条件概率,表示当前环境特征下时间t灾害类型的条件概率;S534: For each disaster type, calculate its probability of occurrence within the next 48 hours. Specifically, use the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to expand the time series data into multiple time slices, and use the forward algorithm to perform probability inference. The specific formula is: ;in, Indicates at time Disaster Type The probability of Indicates time Types of disasters , Indicates the disaster type at time t , Indicates the disaster type at time t Next time Disaster Type The conditional probability of Indicates the current environment characteristics Disaster type at time t The conditional probability of
S535:根据计算结果,生成每个灾害类型的概率分布图,用于显示不同灾害类型在未来48小时内的发生概率,并通过概率值高低标记潜在风险,以支持决策和预警发布;通过上述步骤,利用贝叶斯网络模型进行概率计算和推断,可以准确预测未来48小时内的灾害风险,通过动态贝叶斯网络对时间序列数据进行扩展和推断,提高了预测的时间精度和可靠性,生成的概率分布图直观地显示了各类灾害的潜在风险,为决策者提供了重要的参考依据,有助于提前采取防范措施,减少灾害带来的损失。S535: Based on the calculation results, a probability distribution map of each disaster type is generated to show the probability of occurrence of different disaster types in the next 48 hours, and potential risks are marked by high and low probability values to support decision-making and warning issuance; through the above steps, the Bayesian network model is used for probability calculation and inference, which can accurately predict the disaster risk in the next 48 hours. The dynamic Bayesian network is used to expand and infer the time series data, which improves the time accuracy and reliability of the prediction. The generated probability distribution map intuitively shows the potential risks of various disasters, provides an important reference for decision makers, and helps to take preventive measures in advance to reduce the losses caused by disasters.
S6具体包括:S6 specifically includes:
S61:收集并整合S5步骤中贝叶斯网络模型的预测结果,确定每个灾害类型的发生概率和风险等级,包括海啸、风暴潮和赤潮;S61: Collect and integrate the prediction results of the Bayesian network model in step S5 to determine the probability and risk level of each disaster type, including tsunamis, storm surges, and red tides;
S62:根据预测结果,自动生成预警信息,预警信息包括灾害类型、受影响区域、预计影响程度以及建议防范措施;其中,灾害类型用于明确灾害的具体类型,包括海啸、风暴潮或赤潮;受影响区域基于模型预测的地理范围,用于标识潜在受灾的具体区域;预计影响程度是根据灾害类型和发生概率,评估影响程度,影响程度划分为低、中、高三级风险;建议防范措施用于提供针对每种灾害类型的具体防范建议,包括疏散路径、避难所位置和防护措施;S62: Automatically generate warning information based on the prediction results, including disaster type, affected area, estimated impact, and recommended preventive measures; among them, the disaster type is used to identify the specific type of disaster, including tsunami, storm surge, or red tide; the affected area is based on the geographical scope predicted by the model, which is used to identify the specific area that is potentially affected; the estimated impact is to assess the impact based on the disaster type and probability of occurrence, and the impact is divided into three levels of risk: low, medium, and high; recommended preventive measures are used to provide specific preventive suggestions for each type of disaster, including evacuation routes, shelter locations, and protective measures;
S63:将生成的预警信息输入到地理信息系统中,进行结果的可视化处理,具体步骤包括:S63: Input the generated warning information into the geographic information system and perform visualization of the results. The specific steps include:
首先,将预警信息转换为地理信息系统兼容的数据格式,包括地理坐标、区域多边形和风险等级属性;First, the warning information is converted into a GIS-compatible data format, including geographic coordinates, regional polygons, and risk level attributes;
然后:在地理信息系统平台上绘制受影响区域的地图,使用不同颜色和标记表示不同的灾害类型和风险等级;Then: Map the affected area on a GIS platform, using different colors and markers to represent different hazard types and risk levels;
最后:结合实时监测数据和预测结果,动态更新地图信息,确保预警信息的及时性和准确性;Finally: Combine real-time monitoring data and forecast results to dynamically update map information to ensure the timeliness and accuracy of early warning information;
S64:通过多渠道发布预警信息,确保信息广泛传播,多渠道包括移动应用、社交媒体;通过上述步骤,能够自动生成并发布详细的预警信息,包括灾害类型、受影响区域、预计影响程度及建议防范措施,同时,利用地理信息系统(GIS)进行结果的可视化处理,使预警信息更加直观和易于理解,多渠道的信息发布确保了预警信息的广泛传播和及时传达,为公众和决策者提供了可靠的参考依据,有助于迅速采取有效的防范措施,减少灾害造成的损失。S64: Release warning information through multiple channels to ensure that the information is widely disseminated, including mobile applications and social media. Through the above steps, detailed warning information can be automatically generated and released, including disaster type, affected area, expected impact and recommended prevention measures. At the same time, the results are visualized using the Geographic Information System (GIS) to make the warning information more intuitive and easy to understand. Multi-channel information release ensures the wide dissemination and timely communication of warning information, provides a reliable reference for the public and decision makers, and helps to quickly take effective prevention measures to reduce the losses caused by disasters.
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