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CN116805210B - Intelligent power grid risk identification management and control method based on big data - Google Patents

Intelligent power grid risk identification management and control method based on big data Download PDF

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CN116805210B
CN116805210B CN202311049536.8A CN202311049536A CN116805210B CN 116805210 B CN116805210 B CN 116805210B CN 202311049536 A CN202311049536 A CN 202311049536A CN 116805210 B CN116805210 B CN 116805210B
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CN116805210A (en
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王磊
方进虎
张传海
王京景
麦立
张午扬
王洪波
李昂
梁昆
夏贤明
王波
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State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co Ltd
Hefei Power Supply Co of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co Ltd
Hefei Power Supply Co of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid risk management and control, and particularly discloses a power grid risk intelligent identification and management and control method based on big data.

Description

一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法An intelligent identification and control method for power grid risks based on big data

技术领域Technical field

本发明属于电网风险管控技术领域,涉及到一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法。The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid risk management and control, and relates to a method for intelligent identification and control of power grid risks based on big data.

背景技术Background technique

电力行业在社会的发展中占据着非常重要的地位,电力电网一旦发生事故,将会对人们的生活带来诸多不便,也会对供电企业造成较大的社会影响。伴随着城镇化建设的快速发展,现有供电网络结构逐渐扩大,电网内影响运行安全的风险因素也越来越多,为了提高电力供应可靠性和安全性的保障力度,有必要对电网运行风险进行识别管控。The power industry occupies a very important position in the development of society. Once an accident occurs in the power grid, it will bring a lot of inconvenience to people's lives and have a great social impact on power supply enterprises. With the rapid development of urbanization, the structure of the existing power supply network is gradually expanding, and there are more and more risk factors that affect the operation safety of the power grid. In order to improve the reliability and safety of power supply, it is necessary to control the operation risks of the power grid. Carry out identification and control.

然而目前在进行电网运行风险识别时一般都侧重于电网本身运行产生的风险,例如线路运行过载、过压,线路设备运行故障等,忽略了恶劣天气引发的运行风险、例如大风、暴雨、暴雪等,会导致线路受损,重要电力设备失效,严重者会引发火灾,造成人员伤亡,由此可见因恶劣天气引发的电网运行危害还是比较大的,如果在电网运行中忽略对恶劣天气的监测,无形之中就会缩小电网运行风险识别的覆盖范围,导致识别受限,不够全面,从而一定程度上影响了电网运行风险识别的及时性和准确性,不利于后续电网运行风险管控处理。However, current identification of power grid operation risks generally focuses on risks arising from the operation of the power grid itself, such as line operation overload, overvoltage, line equipment operation failure, etc., while ignoring operational risks caused by severe weather, such as strong winds, heavy rain, heavy snow, etc. , will lead to line damage, failure of important power equipment, and in severe cases, fires and casualties. It can be seen that the harm to power grid operation caused by bad weather is still relatively large. If the monitoring of bad weather is ignored during power grid operation, Invisibly, the coverage of power grid operation risk identification will be reduced, resulting in limited and incomplete identification, which will affect the timeliness and accuracy of power grid operation risk identification to a certain extent, and is not conducive to subsequent power grid operation risk management and control.

再者,目前在进行电网运行风险管控时仅以识别到的运行风险作为管控依据,在运行风险较大时为了方便电网管理基本都采用断电处理,缺乏对用电端供电持续性的需求考量,这是由于不同的用电端对供电持续性的需求存在差异,对于有些精密用电设备,对电力供应的连续性和稳定性非常敏感,贸然断电会导致设备损坏,可能无法修复或代价昂贵,因而单纯以识别到的运行风险作为管控依据很显然不够科学、合理,容易形成一刀切的现象,造成管控结果与用电端适配度不高,致使管控效果不佳,无形之中增加了无效管控的发生率。Furthermore, the current power grid operation risk management and control only uses the identified operation risks as the basis for management and control. When the operation risk is high, power outages are basically used to facilitate grid management, and there is a lack of consideration of the continuity of power supply at the consumer end. , this is because different power consumers have different demands for power supply continuity. For some precision electrical equipment, they are very sensitive to the continuity and stability of power supply. A sudden power outage will cause damage to the equipment, which may be irreparable or costly. Therefore, it is obviously not scientific and reasonable to simply use the identified operational risks as the basis for control, and it is easy to form a one-size-fits-all phenomenon, resulting in a low degree of adaptability between the control results and the power consumption end, resulting in poor control effects and an invisible increase in costs. The incidence of ineffective controls.

发明内容Contents of the invention

鉴于此,现提出一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法,有效解决了上述背景技术中所提出的问题。In view of this, an intelligent identification and control method for power grid risks based on big data is now proposed, which effectively solves the problems raised in the above background technology.

本发明的目的可以通过以下技术方案实现:本发明提出一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法,包括下述步骤:A、统计目标地区内存在的供电网数量,并获取各供电网对应的用电信息和供电管控端,其中用电信息包括用电区域面积、用电区域用电时段及各用电时段对应的主体负荷等级。The purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions: The present invention proposes a method for intelligent identification and control of power grid risks based on big data, which includes the following steps: A. Count the number of power supply networks existing in the target area, and obtain the corresponding data of each power supply network. The power consumption information and power supply management and control end include the power consumption area area, the power consumption period of the power consumption area and the main load level corresponding to each power consumption period.

B、实时监测各供电网对应的线路运行信息、设备运行信息和线路经过地区天气信息,据此评判各供电网在各监测时刻是否存在运行风险,若评判某供电网在某监测时刻存在运行风险,则将该供电网记为风险供电网,将该监测时刻记为风险时刻,同时识别风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向。B. Real-time monitoring of the line operation information, equipment operation information and weather information of the areas where the lines pass corresponding to each power supply network, and based on this, it is judged whether there are operation risks in each power supply network at each monitoring time. If it is judged that a certain power supply network has operation risks at a certain monitoring time, , then the power supply network is recorded as a risk power supply network, the monitoring time is recorded as a risk moment, and the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment is identified at the same time.

C、基于风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向预测风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数。C. Based on the operation risk point of the risk power supply network at the risk moment, predict the power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment.

D、基于风险供电网对应的风险时刻和用电信息评估风险供电网在风险时刻的允许断电指数。D. Evaluate the allowable outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk time based on the risk time and power consumption information corresponding to the risk power supply network.

E、基于风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数和允许断电指数评判风险供电网是否需要断电处理,并在评判风险供电网不需要断电处理时解析风险供电网对应的未断电处理方式。E. Based on the power outage demand index and allowed outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment, judge whether the risk power supply network needs power outage processing, and analyze the non-power outage corresponding to the risk power supply network when judging that the risk power supply network does not need power outage processing. processing method.

F、将风险供电网对应的断电处理评判结果和未断电处理方式上传至相应的供电管控端。F. Upload the power outage processing evaluation results and non-power outage treatment methods corresponding to the risk power supply network to the corresponding power supply control terminal.

在一种可选的方式中,所述用电区域用电时段包括用电区域高峰用电时段、用电区域平时用电时段和用电区域低谷用电时段,其中各用电时段对应的主体负荷等级对应的获取过程如下:统计用电区域内存在的电力设备数量,并识别各电力设备的负荷等级。In an optional way, the power consumption period of the power consumption area includes a peak power consumption period of the power consumption area, a normal power consumption period of the power consumption area and a low power consumption period of the power consumption area, where the subject corresponding to each power consumption period The acquisition process corresponding to the load level is as follows: count the number of power equipment existing in the power consumption area, and identify the load level of each power equipment.

设定监测时间段,进而在监测时间段对应的各监测日中统计各用电时段中处于运行状态的电力设备,作为各用电时段对应的运行电力设备。Set the monitoring time period, and then count the power equipment in operation in each power consumption period on each monitoring day corresponding to the monitoring time period, as the operating power equipment corresponding to each power consumption period.

将同一用电时段内各监测日的运行电力设备进行相互对比,进而将相同运行电力设备进行去重,得到各用电时段对应的若干运行电力设备。The operating power equipment on each monitoring day within the same power consumption period is compared with each other, and then the same operating power equipment is deduplicated to obtain a number of operating power equipment corresponding to each power consumption period.

基于各电力设备的负荷等级获取各用电时段对应各运行电力设备的负荷等级,并按照重要性由高到低的顺序将各用电时段对应各运行电力设备的负荷等级进行排列,进而取排在第一位的负荷等级作为各用电时段对应的主体负荷等级。Based on the load level of each power equipment, the load level of each operating power equipment corresponding to each power consumption period is obtained, and the load levels of each power consumption period corresponding to each operating power equipment are arranged in order of importance, and then the ranking is obtained The load level in the first place is used as the main load level corresponding to each power consumption period.

在一种可选的方式中,所述线路运行信息包括线路负载率、线路过压率和线路供电波动度,设备运行信息包括线路上各设备的运行指征,天气信息包括天气类型和天气表现程度值。In an optional way, the line operation information includes line load rate, line overvoltage rate and line power supply fluctuation, the equipment operation information includes operation indicators of each equipment on the line, and the weather information includes weather type and weather performance. degree value.

在一种可选的方式中,所述监测时刻的划分的具体划分方式为:设定开始监测时刻,进而在一天时间内从开始监测时刻起按照设定的时间间隔进行划分,得到若干监测时刻。In an optional way, the specific division method of dividing the monitoring time is: setting the start monitoring time, and then dividing according to the set time interval from the start monitoring time within one day to obtain several monitoring times. .

在一种可选的方式中,所述评判各供电网在各监测时刻是否存在运行风险具体包括以下步骤:从供电管理库中提取目标地区内各供电网对应的线路限定运行信息和线路各设备的正常运行指征。In an optional way, the evaluation of whether there is an operation risk in each power supply network at each monitoring moment specifically includes the following steps: extracting the line limited operation information and line equipment corresponding to each power supply network in the target area from the power supply management database. indicators of normal operation.

将各供电网在各监测时刻的线路运行信息与各供电网对应的线路限定运行信息进行对比,计算各供电网在各监测时刻的线路运行过限指数,表达式为,式中/>、/>、/>分别表示为第i供电网在第t监测时刻的线路负载率、线路过压率、线路供电波动度,i表示为供电网的编号,/>,t表示为监测时刻的编号,/>,/>、/>分别表示为第i供电网对应的限定线路负载率、限定线路过压率、限定线路供电波动度,e表示为自然常数。Compare the line operation information of each power supply network at each monitoring time with the line limit operation information corresponding to each power supply network, and calculate the line operation over-limit index of each power supply network at each monitoring time. , the expression is , formula in/> ,/> ,/> are respectively expressed as the line load rate, line overvoltage rate, and line power supply fluctuation of the i-th power supply network at the t-th monitoring time, i represents the number of the power supply network,/> , t represents the number of the monitoring time,/> ,/> , ,/> are respectively expressed as the limited line load rate, limited line overvoltage rate, and limited line power supply fluctuation corresponding to the i-th power supply network, and e is expressed as a natural constant.

将各供电网在各监测时刻的设备运行信息与各供电网对应线路各设备的正常运行指征进行对比,计算各供电网在各监测时刻的设备运行异常指数,表达式为,式中/>表示为第i供电网在第t监测时刻中第k设备的运行指征,k表示为设备编号,/>,/>表示为第i供电网对应线路上第k设备的正常运行指征。Compare the equipment operation information of each power supply network at each monitoring time with the normal operation indicators of each equipment in the corresponding lines of each power supply network, and calculate the equipment operation abnormality index of each power supply network at each monitoring time. The expression is: , formula in/> expressed as the operating indication of the k-th equipment of the i-th power supply network at the t-th monitoring time, k represents the equipment number,/> ,/> It is expressed as the normal operation indication of the k-th equipment on the line corresponding to the i-th power supply network.

从天气信息中提取天气类型,进而从供电管理库中筛选出各供电网在各供电时刻的天气影响因子Extract weather types from weather information, and then filter out the weather influencing factors of each power supply network at each power supply moment from the power supply management library. .

从天气信息中提取天气表现程度值,由此将各供电网在各监测时刻的天气影响因子结合天气表现程度值通过表达式得到各供电网在各监测时刻的天气恶劣指数/>,/>表示为第i供电网在第t监测时刻的天气表现程度值。The weather performance degree value is extracted from the weather information, and the weather influencing factors of each power supply network at each monitoring time are combined with the weather performance degree value through the expression Obtain the severe weather index of each power supply network at each monitoring time/> ,/> It is expressed as the weather performance value of the i-th power supply network at the t-th monitoring time.

将各供电网在各监测时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数与供电管理库中各供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数和允许天气恶劣指数进行对比,若某供电网在某监测时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数均小于或等于该供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数和允许天气恶劣指数,则评判该供电网不存在运行风险,反之则评判该供电网存在运行风险。The line operation over-limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of each power supply network at each monitoring time are compared with the allowable line operation over-limit index, allowable equipment operation abnormality index and allowable severe weather index corresponding to each power supply network in the power supply management database. For comparison, if the line operation overrun index, equipment operation abnormality index and weather severe index of a power supply network at a certain monitoring time are all less than or equal to the allowable line operation overrun index, allowable equipment operation abnormality index and allowable weather corresponding to the power supply network. If the severity index is high, the power supply network will be judged to have no operational risk; otherwise, the power supply network will be judged to have operational risks.

在一种可选的方式中,所述风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向具体识别方式为将风险供电网在风险时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数导入识别模型,得到风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向/>,/>、/>、/>分别表示为风险供电网在风险时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数、天气恶劣指数,/>、/>、/>分别表示为风险供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数、允许天气恶劣指数。In an optional way, the specific identification method of the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment is to import the line operation over-limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment into the identification model. , get the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment/> ,/> ,/> ,/> They are respectively expressed as the line operation limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment,/> ,/> ,/> They are respectively expressed as the allowable line operation limit index, the allowable equipment operation abnormality index, and the allowable severe weather index corresponding to the risk power supply network.

在一种可选的方式中,所述预测风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数参见下述过程:将风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向与供电管理库中存储的各种运行风险指向对应的断电影响占比因子进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网在风险时刻的断电影响占比因子In an optional way, the prediction of the power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment refers to the following process: pointing the operation risk of the risk power supply network at the risk moment to various operational risks stored in the power supply management library. Point to the corresponding power outage impact proportion factor for matching, and match the power outage impact proportion factor of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. .

基于风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向从风险供电网在风险时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数中筛选出风险供电网对应的运行风险指数Based on the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment, the operation risk index corresponding to the risk power supply network is screened out from the line operation limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. .

利用预测表达式得到风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数/>,/>表示为风险供电网所属运行风险指向对应的允许运行风险指数。Leverage predictive expressions Obtain the power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment/> ,/> It is expressed as the allowable operation risk index corresponding to the operation risk point of the risk power supply network.

在一种可选的方式中,所述评估风险供电网在风险时刻的允许断电指数参见下述步骤:从风险供电网对应的用电信息中提取用电区域面积,并将其结合目标地区面积计算得到风险供电网对应的用电区域占比率In an optional way, the assessment of the allowable power outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment refers to the following steps: extracting the area of the power consumption area from the power consumption information corresponding to the risk power supply network and combining it with the target area The area is calculated to obtain the proportion of the electricity consumption area corresponding to the risk power supply network. .

从风险供电网对应的用电信息中提取用电区域用电时段,进而将风险供电网对应的风险时刻与风险供电网对应的用电区域用电时段进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网对应风险时刻所属用电区域用电时段,记为特定用电时段。Extract the power consumption period of the power consumption area from the electricity consumption information corresponding to the risk power supply network, and then match the risk time corresponding to the risk power supply network with the power consumption period corresponding to the risk power supply network, and match the corresponding risks of the risk power supply network. The power consumption period of the power consumption area to which the time belongs is recorded as a specific power consumption period.

将风险供电网对应的特定用电时段与供电管理库中存储的各种用电时段对应的供电中断危害因子进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网在风险时刻的供电中断危害因子Match the specific power consumption period corresponding to the risk power supply network with the power supply interruption hazard factors corresponding to various power consumption periods stored in the power supply management library, and match the power supply interruption hazard factors of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. .

基于风险供电网对应的特定用电时段从用电信息中提取风险供电网在特定用电时段的主体负荷等级。Based on the specific power consumption period corresponding to the risk power supply network, the main load level of the risk power supply network in the specific power consumption period is extracted from the power consumption information.

将风险供电网在特定用电时段的主体负荷等级与供电管理库中各种负荷等级对应的需求供电可靠度进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网在风险时刻的需求供电可靠度Match the main load level of the risk power supply network during a specific power consumption period with the demand power supply reliability corresponding to various load levels in the power supply management database, and then match the demand power supply reliability of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. .

、/>和/>导入表达式/>,计算出风险供电网在风险时刻的需求供电持续指数/>,U表示为预设常数,且U>1。Will ,/> and/> Import expression/> , calculate the demand power supply continuity index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment/> ,U represents a preset constant, and U>1.

将风险供电网在风险时刻的需求供电持续指数与供电管理库中存储的各种需求供电持续指数对应的允许断电指数进行对比,从中获取风险供电网在风险时刻的允许断电指数。Compare the demand power supply continuity index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment with the allowable power outage index corresponding to various demand power supply continuity indexes stored in the power supply management library, and obtain the allowable power outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment.

在一种可选的方式中,所述评判风险供电网是否需要断电处理的实现方式为将风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数与允许断电指数进行对比,若断电需求指数大于允许断电指数,则评判风险供电网需要断电处理,反之则评判风险供电网不需要断电处理。In an optional way, the evaluation of whether the risk power supply network requires power outage processing is implemented by comparing the power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment with the allowed power outage index. If the power outage demand index is greater than If the allowable power outage index is used, it is judged that the risk power supply network needs to be cut off, otherwise it is judged that the risk power supply network does not need to be cut off.

在一种可选的方式中,所述解析风险供电网对应的未断电处理方式参见下述过程:将风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向导入解析算法,得到风险供电网对应的未断电处理方式R。In an optional method, the non-power outage processing method corresponding to the analysis of the risk power supply network refers to the following process: the operation risk point of the risk power supply network at the risk moment is introduced into the analysis algorithm , obtain the non-power outage processing method R corresponding to the risk power supply network.

相较于现有技术,本发明的有益效果如下:(1)本发明在进行电网运行风险识别时通过从供电线路运行状态、设备运行状态和线路经过地区天气状态三个维度出发实时进行监测,进而根据监测结果进行风险判断识别,通过扩展电网运行风险识别的覆盖范围实现了电网运行风险的全面识别,有效规避了现有技术中电网风险识别受限的缺陷,在一定程度上提高了电网运行风险识别的及时性和准确性,能够为电网运行风险管控处理提供可靠参照。Compared with the existing technology, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: (1) When identifying power grid operation risks, the present invention performs real-time monitoring from the three dimensions of power supply line operating status, equipment operating status and weather status of the area where the line passes. Then, risk judgment and identification are carried out based on the monitoring results, and comprehensive identification of power grid operation risks is achieved by expanding the coverage of power grid operation risk identification, effectively avoiding the shortcomings of limited power grid risk identification in the existing technology, and improving power grid operation to a certain extent. The timeliness and accuracy of risk identification can provide a reliable reference for power grid operation risk management and control.

(2)本发明在进行电网运行风险管控处理时通过获取用电端信息,由此分析用电端对供电持续性的需求,以此将识别到的运行风险与用电端对供电持续性的需求进行融合,综合地进行电网风险管控,使得电网风险管控更加科学、合理,大大提高了管控结果与用电端的适配度,使得管控效果更佳,很大程度上减少了无效管控的发生率,同时也在一定程度上保障了用电设备的运行安全,有利于降低因贸然断电对用电端造成的损失。(2) When performing power grid operation risk management and control, the present invention obtains the information of the power consumer, thereby analyzing the power consumer's demand for power supply continuity, so as to combine the identified operational risks with the power consumer's demand for power supply continuity. The needs are integrated and the power grid risk management is comprehensively carried out, making the power grid risk management and control more scientific and reasonable, greatly improving the adaptability between the management and control results and the power consumption end, making the management and control effect better, and greatly reducing the incidence of ineffective management and control. , and at the same time, it also ensures the operation safety of electrical equipment to a certain extent, which is helpful to reduce losses caused to power consumers due to sudden power outages.

(3)本发明在基于识别到的电网运行风险和用电端对应供电持续性的需求进行管控处理后当管控处理结果为不断电处理时增加了未断电处理方式的解析,能够为不断电处理的电网运行安全提供针对性、可靠性的保障措施,能够在不断电的状态下尽可能地降低电网运行风险,有利于维持电网的持续运行。(3) The present invention performs management and control processing based on the identified power grid operation risks and the demand for continuity of power supply at the power end. When the management and control processing result is uninterruptible power supply processing, it adds an analysis of the non-power outage processing method, which can provide uninterrupted power supply. The processed power grid operation safety provides targeted and reliable guarantee measures, which can reduce the risk of power grid operation as much as possible under the condition of uninterrupted power supply, and is conducive to maintaining the continuous operation of the power grid.

附图说明Description of the drawings

为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例的技术方案,下面将对实施例描述所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍,显而易见地,下面描述中的附图仅仅是本发明的一些实施例,对于本领域普通技术人员来讲,在不付出创造性劳动的前提下,还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。In order to explain the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, the drawings needed to describe the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings without exerting creative efforts.

图1为本发明的方法步骤示意图。Figure 1 is a schematic diagram of the method steps of the present invention.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

下面将结合本发明实施例中的附图,对本发明实施例中的技术方案进行清楚、完整地描述,显然,所描述的实施例仅仅是本发明一部分实施例,而不是全部的实施例。基于本发明中的实施例,本领域普通技术人员在没有做出创造性劳动前提下所获得的所有其他实施例,都属于本发明保护的范围。The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

请参阅图1所示,本发明提出一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法,包括下述步骤:A、统计目标地区内存在的供电网数量,并获取各供电网对应的用电信息和供电管控端,其中用电信息包括用电区域面积、用电区域用电时段及各用电时段对应的主体负荷等级。Please refer to Figure 1. The present invention proposes a method for intelligent identification and control of power grid risks based on big data, which includes the following steps: A. Count the number of power supply networks existing in the target area, and obtain the corresponding power consumption information of each power supply network. And the power supply management and control end, where the electricity consumption information includes the area of the electricity consumption area, the electricity consumption period of the electricity consumption area and the main load level corresponding to each power consumption period.

在进一步地实施例中,用电区域用电时段包括用电区域高峰用电时段、用电区域平时用电时段和用电区域低谷用电时段。In a further embodiment, the power consumption period of the power consumption area includes a peak power consumption period of the power consumption area, a normal power consumption period of the power consumption area and a low power consumption period of the power consumption area.

需要说明的是,上述用电区域用电时段的划分是将一天对应的24H进行划分,示例性地,用电区域高峰用电时段为9:00-17:00,用电区域平时用电时段为17:00-22:00,用电区域低谷用电时段为22:00-8:00。It should be noted that the above-mentioned division of the power consumption period of the power consumption area is divided into 24 hours corresponding to the day. For example, the peak power consumption period of the power consumption area is 9:00-17:00, and the normal power consumption period of the power consumption area is It is 17:00-22:00, and the low power consumption period in the power consumption area is 22:00-8:00.

其中各用电时段对应的主体负荷等级对应的获取过程如下:统计用电区域内存在的电力设备数量,并识别各电力设备的负荷等级,具体识别方式为将用电区域内存在的各电力设备名称与供电管理库中各种负荷等级对应的若干电力设备名称进行匹配,由此识别各电力设备的负荷等级。The acquisition process of the subject load level corresponding to each power consumption period is as follows: count the number of power equipment existing in the power consumption area, and identify the load level of each power equipment. The specific identification method is to combine each power equipment existing in the power consumption area. The name is matched with several power equipment names corresponding to various load levels in the power supply management database, thereby identifying the load level of each power equipment.

需要知道的是,负荷等级是电力负荷根据对供电可靠性的要求和中断供电对政治、经济所造成损失或影响的程度进行分级,可划分为一级负荷、二级负荷和三级负荷,其中一级负荷的重要性大于二级负荷,二级负荷的重要性大于三级负荷。What needs to be known is that the load level is the classification of electric load according to the requirements for power supply reliability and the degree of loss or impact of interruption of power supply on politics and economy. It can be divided into first-level load, second-level load and third-level load, among which The importance of the first-level load is greater than that of the second-level load, and the importance of the second-level load is greater than that of the third-level load.

设定监测时间段,进而在监测时间段对应的各监测日中统计各用电时段中处于运行状态的电力设备,作为各用电时段对应的运行电力设备。Set the monitoring time period, and then count the power equipment in operation in each power consumption period on each monitoring day corresponding to the monitoring time period, as the operating power equipment corresponding to each power consumption period.

将同一用电时段内各监测日的运行电力设备进行相互对比,进而将相同运行电力设备进行去重,得到各用电时段对应的若干运行电力设备。The operating power equipment on each monitoring day within the same power consumption period is compared with each other, and then the same operating power equipment is deduplicated to obtain a number of operating power equipment corresponding to each power consumption period.

基于各电力设备的负荷等级获取各用电时段对应各运行电力设备的负荷等级,并按照重要性由高到低的顺序将各用电时段对应各运行电力设备的负荷等级进行排列,进而取排在第一位的负荷等级作为各用电时段对应的主体负荷等级。Based on the load level of each power equipment, the load level of each operating power equipment corresponding to each power consumption period is obtained, and the load levels of each power consumption period corresponding to each operating power equipment are arranged in order of importance, and then the ranking is obtained The load level in the first place is used as the main load level corresponding to each power consumption period.

B、实时监测各供电网对应的线路运行信息、设备运行信息和线路经过地区天气信息,其中线路运行信息包括线路负载率、线路过压率和线路供电波动度,设备运行信息包括线路上各设备的运行指征,天气信息包括天气类型和天气表现程度值,据此评判各供电网在各监测时刻是否存在运行风险,若评判某供电网在某监测时刻存在运行风险,则将该供电网记为风险供电网,将该监测时刻记为风险时刻,同时识别风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向。B. Real-time monitoring of the line operation information, equipment operation information and weather information of the areas the lines pass through corresponding to each power supply network. The line operation information includes line load rate, line overvoltage rate and line power supply fluctuation. The equipment operation information includes each equipment on the line. The weather information includes weather type and weather performance degree value. Based on this, it is judged whether there is operation risk in each power supply network at each monitoring time. If it is judged that a certain power supply network has operation risk at a certain monitoring time, the power supply network will be recorded. For the risk power supply network, the monitoring moment is recorded as the risk moment, and the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment is identified.

在本发明的具体实施方式中,监测时刻的具体划分方式为:设定开始监测时刻,进而在一天时间内从开始监测时刻起按照设定的时间间隔进行划分,得到若干监测时刻。In the specific implementation of the present invention, the specific division method of monitoring time is: setting the start monitoring time, and then dividing according to the set time interval from the start monitoring time within one day to obtain several monitoring time.

作为上述方案的一个示例,假定开始监测时刻为7:00,设定的时间间隔为10分钟,在这种情况下划分的监测时刻为7:10-7:20、7:20-7:30、7:30-7:40......。As an example of the above solution, assume that the monitoring start time is 7:00, and the set time interval is 10 minutes. In this case, the divided monitoring time is 7:10-7:20, 7:20-7:30 , 7:30-7:40….

进一步地,线路运行信息中线路负载率的获取方式为获取线路实际负载,利用公式得到,线路过压率的获取方式为获取线路实际运行电压,并利用公式/>,线路供电波动度的获取方式为采集线路电能质量指标,具体包括频率偏差、电压偏差、电网谐波率,利用表达式 Further, the line load rate in the line operation information is obtained by obtaining the actual load of the line, using the formula Obtained, the way to obtain the line overvoltage rate is to obtain the actual operating voltage of the line, and use the formula/> , the line power supply fluctuation is obtained by collecting line power quality indicators, including frequency deviation, voltage deviation, and grid harmonic rate, using the expression

又进一步地,线路上存在的设备包括但不限断路器、变压器、互感器......Furthermore, the equipment existing on the line includes but is not limited to circuit breakers, transformers, mutual inductors...

再进一步地,天气类型包括雨天、风天、晴天、雪天等,天气表现程度值为相应天气类型下的表现程度,当天气类型为雨天时,天气表现程度值为,当天气类型为风天时,天气表现程度值为/>,当天气类型为晴天时,天气表现程度值为,当天气类型为雪天时,天气表现程度值为/>Furthermore, weather types include rainy days, windy days, sunny days, snowy days, etc., and the weather performance degree value is the performance degree under the corresponding weather type. When the weather type is rainy day, the weather performance degree value is , when the weather type is windy, the weather performance degree value is/> , when the weather type is sunny, the weather performance degree value is , when the weather type is snow, the weather performance degree value is/> .

需要说明的是,上述天气信息是从线路经过地区的气象中心获取。It should be noted that the above weather information is obtained from the meteorological center of the area where the line passes.

在上述技术方案中,评判各供电网在各监测时刻是否存在运行风险具体包括以下步骤:从供电管理库中提取目标地区内各供电网对应的线路限定运行信息和线路各设备的正常运行指征。In the above technical solution, judging whether each power supply network has operational risks at each monitoring moment specifically includes the following steps: extracting the limited operation information of the lines corresponding to each power supply network in the target area and the normal operation indicators of each equipment on the line from the power supply management database .

将各供电网在各监测时刻的线路运行信息与各供电网对应的线路限定运行信息进行对比,计算各供电网在各监测时刻的线路运行过限指数,表达式为,式中/>、/>、/>分别表示为第i供电网在第t监测时刻的线路负载率、线路过压率、线路供电波动度,i表示为供电网的编号,/>,t表示为监测时刻的编号,/>,/>、/>分别表示为第i供电网对应的限定线路负载率、限定线路过压率、限定线路供电波动度,e表示为自然常数。Compare the line operation information of each power supply network at each monitoring time with the line limit operation information corresponding to each power supply network, and calculate the line operation over-limit index of each power supply network at each monitoring time. , the expression is , formula in/> ,/> ,/> are respectively expressed as the line load rate, line overvoltage rate, and line power supply fluctuation of the i-th power supply network at the t-th monitoring time, i represents the number of the power supply network,/> , t represents the number of the monitoring time,/> ,/> , ,/> are respectively expressed as the limited line load rate, limited line overvoltage rate, and limited line power supply fluctuation corresponding to the i-th power supply network, and e is expressed as a natural constant.

将各供电网在各监测时刻的设备运行信息与各供电网对应线路各设备的正常运行指征进行对比,计算各供电网在各监测时刻的设备运行异常指数,表达式为,式中/>表示为第i供电网在第t监测时刻中第k设备的运行指征,k表示为设备编号,/>,/>表示为第i供电网对应线路上第k设备的正常运行指征。Compare the equipment operation information of each power supply network at each monitoring time with the normal operation indicators of each equipment in the corresponding lines of each power supply network, and calculate the equipment operation abnormality index of each power supply network at each monitoring time. The expression is: , formula in/> expressed as the operating indication of the k-th equipment of the i-th power supply network at the t-th monitoring time, k represents the equipment number,/> ,/> It is expressed as the normal operation indication of the k-th equipment on the line corresponding to the i-th power supply network.

从天气信息中提取天气类型,进而从供电管理库中筛选出各供电网在各供电时刻的天气影响因子,其中天气类型越恶劣,天气影响因子越大。Extract weather types from weather information, and then filter out the weather influencing factors of each power supply network at each power supply moment from the power supply management library. , where the worse the weather type, the greater the weather influence factor.

从天气信息中提取天气表现程度值,由此将各供电网在各监测时刻的天气影响因子结合天气表现程度值通过表达式得到各供电网在各监测时刻的天气恶劣指数/>,/>表示为第i供电网在第t监测时刻的天气表现程度值。The weather performance degree value is extracted from the weather information, and the weather influencing factors of each power supply network at each monitoring time are combined with the weather performance degree value through the expression Obtain the severe weather index of each power supply network at each monitoring time/> ,/> It is expressed as the weather performance value of the i-th power supply network at the t-th monitoring time.

将各供电网在各监测时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数与供电管理库中各供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数和允许天气恶劣指数进行对比,若某供电网在某监测时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数均小于或等于该供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数和允许天气恶劣指数,则评判该供电网不存在运行风险,反之则评判该供电网存在运行风险。The line operation over-limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of each power supply network at each monitoring time are compared with the allowable line operation over-limit index, allowable equipment operation abnormality index and allowable severe weather index corresponding to each power supply network in the power supply management database. For comparison, if the line operation overrun index, equipment operation abnormality index and weather severe index of a power supply network at a certain monitoring time are all less than or equal to the allowable line operation overrun index, allowable equipment operation abnormality index and allowable weather corresponding to the power supply network. If the severity index is high, the power supply network will be judged to have no operational risk; otherwise, the power supply network will be judged to have operational risks.

在上述方案基础上,风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向具体识别方式为将风险供电网在风险时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数导入识别模型,得到风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向,/>、/>、/>分别表示为风险供电网在风险时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数、天气恶劣指数,/>、/>、/>分别表示为风险供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数、允许天气恶劣指数。Based on the above scheme, the specific identification method of the operation risk direction of the risky power supply network at the risk moment is to import the line operation limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of the risky power supply network at the risk moment into the identification model. , obtain the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment ,/> ,/> ,/> They are respectively expressed as the line operation limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment,/> ,/> ,/> They are respectively expressed as the allowable line operation limit index, the allowable equipment operation abnormality index, and the allowable severe weather index corresponding to the risk power supply network.

本发明在进行电网运行风险识别时通过从供电线路运行状态、设备运行状态和线路经过地区天气状态三个维度出发实时进行监测,进而根据监测结果进行风险判断识别,通过扩展电网运行风险识别的覆盖范围实现了电网运行风险的全面识别,有效规避了现有技术中电网风险识别受限的缺陷,在一定程度上提高了电网运行风险识别的及时性和准确性,能够为电网运行风险管控处理提供可靠参照。When identifying the power grid operation risk, the present invention conducts real-time monitoring from the three dimensions of power supply line operation status, equipment operation status and weather status of the area where the line passes, and then performs risk judgment and identification based on the monitoring results. By expanding the coverage of power grid operation risk identification The scope realizes the comprehensive identification of power grid operation risks, effectively avoids the shortcomings of limited power grid risk identification in the existing technology, improves the timeliness and accuracy of power grid operation risk identification to a certain extent, and can provide information for power grid operation risk management and control. Reliable reference.

C、基于风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向预测风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数,具体预测过程如下:将风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向与供电管理库中存储的各种运行风险指向对应的断电影响占比因子进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网在风险时刻的断电影响占比因子C. Predict the power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk time based on the operation risk points of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. The specific prediction process is as follows: compare the operation risk points of the risk power supply network at the risk moment with each stored in the power supply management library. Each operation risk point is matched with the corresponding power outage impact proportion factor, and the power outage impact proportion factor of the risk power supply network at the risk moment is matched. .

上述中各种运行风险指向对应的断电影响因子取值在0-1之间。The power outage impact factors corresponding to the various operational risks mentioned above range from 0 to 1.

基于风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向从风险供电网在风险时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数中筛选出风险供电网对应的运行风险指数Based on the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment, the operation risk index corresponding to the risk power supply network is screened out from the line operation limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. .

利用预测表达式得到风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数,/>表示为风险供电网所属运行风险指向对应的允许运行风险指数。Leverage predictive expressions Obtain the power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment ,/> It is expressed as the allowable operation risk index corresponding to the operation risk point of the risk power supply network.

具体地,风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向为线路运行过限时,风险供电网对应的运行风险指数为线路运行过限指数,允许运行风险指数为允许线路运行过限指数,风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向为设备运行异常时,风险供电网对应的运行风险指数为设备运行异常指数,允许运行风险指数为允许设备运行异常指数,风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向为天气恶劣时,风险供电网对应的运行风险指数为天气恶劣指数,允许运行风险指数为允许天气恶劣指数。Specifically, the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment is when the line operation exceeds the limit, the operation risk index corresponding to the risk power supply network is the line operation over limit index, the allowable operation risk index is the allowable line operation over limit index, and the risk power supply network is When the operation risk direction at the risk moment is abnormal equipment operation, the operation risk index corresponding to the risk power supply network is the equipment operation abnormality index, the allowed operation risk index is the allowable equipment operation abnormality index, and the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment is bad weather. When , the operation risk index corresponding to the risky power supply network is the severe weather index, and the allowable operation risk index is the allowable severe weather index.

D、基于风险供电网对应的风险时刻和用电信息评估风险供电网在风险时刻的允许断电指数,包括下述步骤:从风险供电网对应的用电信息中提取用电区域面积,并将其除以目标地区面积计算得到风险供电网对应的用电区域占比率D. Evaluate the allowable power outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk time based on the risk time and power consumption information corresponding to the risk power supply network, including the following steps: extract the power area area from the power consumption information corresponding to the risk power supply network, and Divide it by the area of the target area to calculate the proportion of the electricity consumption area corresponding to the risk power supply network. .

从风险供电网对应的用电信息中提取用电区域用电时段,进而将风险供电网对应的风险时刻与风险供电网对应的用电区域用电时段进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网对应风险时刻所属用电区域用电时段,记为特定用电时段。Extract the power consumption period of the power consumption area from the electricity consumption information corresponding to the risk power supply network, and then match the risk time corresponding to the risk power supply network with the power consumption period corresponding to the risk power supply network, and match the corresponding risks of the risk power supply network. The power consumption period of the power consumption area to which the time belongs is recorded as a specific power consumption period.

将风险供电网对应的特定用电时段与供电管理库中存储的各种用电时段对应的供电中断危害因子进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网在风险时刻的供电中断危害因子Match the specific power consumption period corresponding to the risk power supply network with the power supply interruption hazard factors corresponding to various power consumption periods stored in the power supply management library, and match the power supply interruption hazard factors of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. .

基于风险供电网对应的特定用电时段从用电信息中提取风险供电网在特定用电时段的主体负荷等级。Based on the specific power consumption period corresponding to the risk power supply network, the main load level of the risk power supply network in the specific power consumption period is extracted from the power consumption information.

将风险供电网在特定用电时段的主体负荷等级与供电管理库中各种负荷等级对应的需求供电可靠度进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网在风险时刻的需求供电可靠度Match the main load level of the risk power supply network during a specific power consumption period with the demand power supply reliability corresponding to various load levels in the power supply management database, and then match the demand power supply reliability of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. .

、/>和/>导入表达式/>,计算出风险供电网在风险时刻的需求供电持续指数/>,U表示为预设常数,且U>1。Will ,/> and/> Import expression/> , calculate the demand power supply continuity index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment/> ,U represents a preset constant, and U>1.

将风险供电网在风险时刻的需求供电持续指数与供电管理库中存储的各种需求供电持续指数对应的允许断电指数进行对比,从中获取风险供电网在风险时刻的允许断电指数。Compare the demand power supply continuity index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment with the allowable power outage index corresponding to various demand power supply continuity indexes stored in the power supply management library, and obtain the allowable power outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment.

E、基于风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数和允许断电指数评判风险供电网是否需要断电处理,并在评判风险供电网不需要断电处理时解析风险供电网对应的未断电处理方式。E. Based on the power outage demand index and allowed outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment, judge whether the risk power supply network needs power outage processing, and analyze the non-power outage corresponding to the risk power supply network when judging that the risk power supply network does not need power outage processing. processing method.

在上述方案中,评判风险供电网是否需要断电处理的实现方式为将风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数与允许断电指数进行对比,若断电需求指数大于允许断电指数,则评判风险供电网需要断电处理,反之则评判风险供电网不需要断电处理。In the above scheme, the way to judge whether the risk power supply network needs power outage processing is to compare the power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment with the allowed power outage index. If the power outage demand index is greater than the allowed power outage index, then If the power supply network is judged to be at risk, it needs to be cut off. On the contrary, the power supply network to be judged to be at risk does not need to be cut off.

本发明在进行电网运行风险管控处理时通过获取用电端信息,由此分析用电端对供电持续性的需求,以此将识别到的运行风险与用电端对供电持续性的需求进行融合,综合地进行电网风险管控,使得电网风险管控更加科学、合理,大大提高了管控结果与用电端的适配度,使得管控效果更佳,很大程度上减少了无效管控的发生率,同时也在一定程度上保障了用电设备的运行安全,有利于降低因贸然断电对用电端造成的损失。When performing power grid operation risk management and control processing, the present invention obtains power-consuming end information, thereby analyzing the power-consuming end's demand for power supply continuity, thereby integrating the identified operational risks with the power-consuming end's demand for power supply continuity. , comprehensively carry out power grid risk management and control, making power grid risk management and control more scientific and reasonable, greatly improving the adaptability between the management and control results and the power consumption end, making the management and control effect better, greatly reducing the incidence of ineffective management and control, and at the same time also It ensures the operation safety of electrical equipment to a certain extent and helps reduce losses caused to power consumers due to sudden power outages.

优选地,解析风险供电网对应的未断电处理方式参见下述过程:Preferably, to analyze the non-power outage processing method corresponding to the risk power supply network, refer to the following process:

将风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向导入解析算法,得到风险供电网对应的未断电处理方式R。Introduce the operational risk points of the risky power supply network at risk moments into the analytical algorithm , obtain the non-power outage processing method R corresponding to the risk power supply network.

本发明在基于识别到的电网运行风险和用电端对应供电持续性的需求进行管控处理后当管控处理结果为不断电处理时增加了未断电处理方式的解析,能够为不断电处理的电网运行安全提供针对性、可靠性的保障措施,能够在不断电的状态下尽可能地降低电网运行风险,有利于维持电网的持续运行。The present invention performs management and control processing based on the identified power grid operation risks and the power supply continuity requirements of the power consumption end. When the management and control processing result is uninterruptible power supply processing, it adds an analysis of the non-power outage processing method, and can provide a power grid with uninterruptible power supply processing. Operational safety provides targeted and reliable guarantee measures, which can reduce power grid operation risks as much as possible without interruption of power supply, and is conducive to maintaining the continuous operation of the power grid.

F、将风险供电网对应的断电处理评判结果和未断电处理方式上传至相应的供电管控端。F. Upload the power outage processing evaluation results and non-power outage treatment methods corresponding to the risk power supply network to the corresponding power supply control terminal.

本发明在实施过程中还用到了供电管理库,用于存储各供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数和允许天气恶劣指数,存储各供电网对应的线路额定负载、线路额定运行电压和正常频率偏差、正常电压偏差、正常电网谐波率,存储各种天气类型对应的影响因子,存储各供电网对应的线路限定运行信息和线路各设备的正常运行指征,存储各种运行风险指向对应的断电影响占比因子,存储各种用电时段对应的供电中断危害因子,存储各种负荷等级对应的需求供电可靠度,存储各种负荷等级对应的若干电力设备名称,并存储各种需求供电持续指数对应的允许断电指数。During the implementation process of the present invention, a power supply management library is also used to store the allowable line operation limit index, the allowable equipment operation abnormality index and the allowable severe weather index corresponding to each power supply network, and to store the line rated load and line corresponding to each power supply network. Rated operating voltage and normal frequency deviation, normal voltage deviation, normal power grid harmonic rate, storage of influencing factors corresponding to various weather types, storage of line limited operation information corresponding to each power supply network and normal operation indicators of each line equipment, storage of various Each operation risk points to the corresponding power outage impact proportion factor, stores the power supply interruption hazard factors corresponding to various power consumption periods, stores the demand power supply reliability corresponding to various load levels, and stores several power equipment names corresponding to various load levels. And store the allowable power outage index corresponding to various demand power supply continuity indexes.

以上内容仅仅是对本发明的构思所作的举例和说明,所属本技术领域的技术人员对所描述的具体实施例做各种各样的修改或补充或采用类似的方式替代,只要不偏离发明的构思或者超越本发明所定义的范围,均应属于本发明的保护范围。The above contents are only examples and explanations of the concept of the invention. Those skilled in the art may make various modifications or additions to the described specific embodiments or substitute them in similar ways, as long as they do not deviate from the concept of the invention. Or beyond the scope defined by the present invention, all shall belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (6)

1.一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法,其特征在于,包括下述步骤:1. An intelligent identification and control method for power grid risks based on big data, which is characterized by including the following steps: A、统计目标地区内存在的供电网数量,并获取各供电网对应的用电信息和供电管控端,其中用电信息包括用电区域面积、用电区域用电时段及各用电时段对应的主体负荷等级;A. Count the number of power supply networks that exist in the target area, and obtain the power consumption information and power supply management and control terminals corresponding to each power supply network. The power consumption information includes the area of the power consumption area, the power consumption period of the power consumption area, and the corresponding power consumption period. Main body load level; B、实时监测各供电网对应的线路运行信息、设备运行信息和线路经过地区天气信息,据此评判各供电网在各监测时刻是否存在运行风险,若评判某供电网在某监测时刻存在运行风险,则将该供电网记为风险供电网,将该监测时刻记为风险时刻,同时识别风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向;B. Real-time monitoring of the line operation information, equipment operation information and weather information of the areas where the lines pass corresponding to each power supply network, and based on this, it is judged whether there are operation risks in each power supply network at each monitoring time. If it is judged that a certain power supply network has operation risks at a certain monitoring time, , then the power supply network is recorded as a risk power supply network, the monitoring time is recorded as a risk moment, and the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment is identified at the same time; 所述评判各供电网在各监测时刻是否存在运行风险具体包括以下步骤:The evaluation of whether there are operational risks in each power supply network at each monitoring time specifically includes the following steps: 从供电管理库中提取目标地区内各供电网对应的线路限定运行信息和线路各设备的正常运行指征;Extract the limited operation information of the lines corresponding to each power supply network in the target area and the normal operation indicators of each equipment on the lines from the power supply management database; 将各供电网在各监测时刻的线路运行信息与各供电网对应的线路限定运行信息进行对比,计算各供电网在各监测时刻的线路运行过限指数,表达式为,式中/>、/>分别表示为第i供电网在第t监测时刻的线路负载率、线路过压率、线路供电波动度,i表示为供电网的编号,/>,t表示为监测时刻的编号,/>,/>、/>、/>分别表示为第i供电网对应的限定线路负载率、限定线路过压率、限定线路供电波动度,e表示为自然常数;Compare the line operation information of each power supply network at each monitoring time with the line limit operation information corresponding to each power supply network, and calculate the line operation over-limit index of each power supply network at each monitoring time. , the expression is , formula in/> ,/> , are respectively expressed as the line load rate, line overvoltage rate, and line power supply fluctuation of the i-th power supply network at the t-th monitoring time, i represents the number of the power supply network,/> , t represents the number of the monitoring time,/> ,/> ,/> ,/> are respectively expressed as the limited line load rate, limited line overvoltage rate, and limited line power supply fluctuation corresponding to the i-th power supply network, and e is expressed as a natural constant; 将各供电网在各监测时刻的设备运行信息与各供电网对应线路各设备的正常运行指征进行对比,计算各供电网在各监测时刻的设备运行异常指数,表达式为,式中/>表示为第i供电网在第t监测时刻中第k设备的运行指征,k表示为设备编号,/>,/>表示为第i供电网对应线路上第k设备的正常运行指征;Compare the equipment operation information of each power supply network at each monitoring time with the normal operation indicators of each equipment in the corresponding lines of each power supply network, and calculate the equipment operation abnormality index of each power supply network at each monitoring time. The expression is: , formula in/> expressed as the operating indication of the k-th equipment of the i-th power supply network at the t-th monitoring time, k represents the equipment number,/> ,/> Expressed as the normal operation indication of the k-th equipment on the line corresponding to the i-th power supply network; 从天气信息中提取天气类型,进而从供电管理库中筛选出各供电网在各供电时刻的天气影响因子Extract weather types from weather information, and then filter out the weather influencing factors of each power supply network at each power supply moment from the power supply management library. ; 从天气信息中提取天气表现程度值,由此将各供电网在各监测时刻的天气影响因子结合天气表现程度值通过表达式得到各供电网在各监测时刻的天气恶劣指数/>,/>表示为第i供电网在第t监测时刻的天气表现程度值;The weather performance degree value is extracted from the weather information, and the weather influencing factors of each power supply network at each monitoring time are combined with the weather performance degree value through the expression Obtain the severe weather index of each power supply network at each monitoring time/> ,/> Expressed as the weather performance value of the i-th power supply network at the t-th monitoring time; 将各供电网在各监测时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数与供电管理库中各供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数和允许天气恶劣指数进行对比,若某供电网在某监测时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数均小于或等于该供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数和允许天气恶劣指数,则评判该供电网不存在运行风险,反之则评判该供电网存在运行风险;The line operation over-limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of each power supply network at each monitoring time are compared with the allowable line operation over-limit index, allowable equipment operation abnormality index and allowable severe weather index corresponding to each power supply network in the power supply management database. For comparison, if the line operation overrun index, equipment operation abnormality index and weather severe index of a power supply network at a certain monitoring time are all less than or equal to the allowable line operation overrun index, allowable equipment operation abnormality index and allowable weather corresponding to the power supply network. If the severity index is high, then the power supply network is judged to have no operational risk; otherwise, the power supply network is judged to have operational risk; 所述风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向具体识别方式为将风险供电网在风险时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数导入识别模型,得到风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向,/>、/>、/>分别表示为风险供电网在风险时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数、天气恶劣指数,/>、/>、/>分别表示为风险供电网对应的允许线路运行过限指数、允许设备运行异常指数、允许天气恶劣指数;The specific identification method of the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment is to import the line operation limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment into the identification model. , obtain the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment ,/> ,/> ,/> They are respectively expressed as the line operation limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment,/> ,/> ,/> They are respectively expressed as the allowable line operation limit index, the allowable equipment operation abnormality index, and the allowable severe weather index corresponding to the risk power supply network; 基于风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向预测风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数;Based on the operation risk pointer of the risk power supply network at the risk moment, predict the power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment; 所述预测风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数参见下述过程:The predicted power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment refers to the following process: 将风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向与供电管理库中存储的各种运行风险指向对应的断电影响占比因子进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网在风险时刻的断电影响占比因子Match the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment with the power outage impact proportion factors corresponding to various operation risk directions stored in the power supply management library, and match the power outage impact proportion factor of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. ; 基于风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向从风险供电网在风险时刻的线路运行过限指数、设备运行异常指数和天气恶劣指数中筛选出风险供电网对应的运行风险指数Based on the operation risk direction of the risk power supply network at the risk moment, the operation risk index corresponding to the risk power supply network is screened out from the line operation limit index, equipment operation abnormality index and severe weather index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. ; 利用预测表达式得到风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数/>表示为风险供电网所属运行风险指向对应的允许运行风险指数;Leverage predictive expressions Obtain the power outage demand index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment/> , Represented as the allowable operation risk index corresponding to the operation risk point of the risk power supply network; 基于风险供电网对应的风险时刻和用电信息评估风险供电网在风险时刻的允许断电指数;Evaluate the allowable outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment based on the risk moment and power consumption information corresponding to the risk power supply network; 所述评估风险供电网在风险时刻的允许断电指数参见下述步骤:To assess the allowable power outage index of the risk power supply network at risk moments, please refer to the following steps: 从风险供电网对应的用电信息中提取用电区域面积,并将其结合目标地区面积计算得到风险供电网对应的用电区域占比率Extract the area of the electricity consumption area from the electricity consumption information corresponding to the risk power supply network, and combine it with the area of the target area to calculate the proportion of the electricity consumption area corresponding to the risk power supply network. ; 从风险供电网对应的用电信息中提取用电区域用电时段,进而将风险供电网对应的风险时刻与风险供电网对应的用电区域用电时段进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网对应风险时刻所属用电区域用电时段,记为特定用电时段;Extract the power consumption period of the power consumption area from the electricity consumption information corresponding to the risk power supply network, and then match the risk time corresponding to the risk power supply network with the power consumption period corresponding to the risk power supply network, and match the corresponding risks of the risk power supply network. The power consumption period of the power consumption area to which the time belongs is recorded as a specific power consumption period; 将风险供电网对应的特定用电时段与供电管理库中存储的各种用电时段对应的供电中断危害因子进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网在风险时刻的供电中断危害因子Match the specific power consumption period corresponding to the risk power supply network with the power supply interruption hazard factors corresponding to various power consumption periods stored in the power supply management library, and match the power supply interruption hazard factors of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. ; 基于风险供电网对应的特定用电时段从用电信息中提取风险供电网在特定用电时段的主体负荷等级;Based on the specific power consumption period corresponding to the risk power supply network, extract the main load level of the risk power supply network during the specific power consumption period from the power consumption information; 将风险供电网在特定用电时段的主体负荷等级与供电管理库中各种负荷等级对应的需求供电可靠度进行匹配,从中匹配出风险供电网在风险时刻的需求供电可靠度Match the main load level of the risk power supply network during a specific power consumption period with the demand power supply reliability corresponding to various load levels in the power supply management database, and then match the demand power supply reliability of the risk power supply network at the risk moment. ; 、/>和/>导入表达式/>,计算出风险供电网在风险时刻的需求供电持续指数/>,U表示为预设常数,且U>1;Will ,/> and/> Import expression/> , calculate the demand power supply continuity index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment/> ,U represents a preset constant, and U>1; 将风险供电网在风险时刻的需求供电持续指数与供电管理库中存储的各种需求供电持续指数对应的允许断电指数进行对比,从中获取风险供电网在风险时刻的允许断电指数;Compare the demand power supply continuity index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment with the allowable power outage index corresponding to the various demand power supply continuity indexes stored in the power supply management library, and obtain the allowable power outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment; E、基于风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数和允许断电指数评判风险供电网是否需要断电处理,并在评判风险供电网不需要断电处理时解析风险供电网对应的未断电处理方式;E. Based on the power outage demand index and allowed outage index of the risk power supply network at the risk moment, judge whether the risk power supply network needs power outage processing, and analyze the non-power outage corresponding to the risk power supply network when judging that the risk power supply network does not need power outage processing. processing method; F、将风险供电网对应的断电处理评判结果和未断电处理方式上传至相应的供电管控端。F. Upload the power outage processing evaluation results and non-power outage treatment methods corresponding to the risk power supply network to the corresponding power supply control terminal. 2.如权利要求1所述的一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法,其特征在于:所述用电区域用电时段包括用电区域高峰用电时段、用电区域平时用电时段和用电区域低谷用电时段,其中各用电时段对应的主体负荷等级对应的获取过程如下:2. A method for intelligent identification and control of power grid risks based on big data as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the power consumption period of the power consumption area includes the peak power consumption period of the power consumption area and the normal power consumption period of the power consumption area. and the low power consumption period in the power consumption area. The acquisition process of the main load level corresponding to each power consumption period is as follows: 统计用电区域内存在的电力设备数量,并识别各电力设备的负荷等级;Count the number of electrical equipment existing in the power consumption area and identify the load level of each electrical equipment; 设定监测时间段,进而在监测时间段对应的各监测日中统计各用电时段中处于运行状态的电力设备,作为各用电时段对应的运行电力设备;Set the monitoring time period, and then count the power equipment in operation in each power consumption period on each monitoring day corresponding to the monitoring time period, as the operating power equipment corresponding to each power consumption period; 将同一用电时段内各监测日的运行电力设备进行相互对比,进而将相同运行电力设备进行去重,得到各用电时段对应的若干运行电力设备;Compare the operating power equipment on each monitoring day within the same power consumption period with each other, and then deduplicate the same operating power equipment to obtain a number of operating power equipment corresponding to each power consumption period; 基于各电力设备的负荷等级获取各用电时段对应各运行电力设备的负荷等级,并按照重要性由高到低的顺序将各用电时段对应各运行电力设备的负荷等级进行排列,进而取排在第一位的负荷等级作为各用电时段对应的主体负荷等级。Based on the load level of each power equipment, the load level of each operating power equipment corresponding to each power consumption period is obtained, and the load levels of each power consumption period corresponding to each operating power equipment are arranged in order of importance, and then the ranking is obtained The load level in the first place is used as the main load level corresponding to each power consumption period. 3.如权利要求1所述的一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法,其特征在于:所述线路运行信息包括线路负载率、线路过压率和线路供电波动度,设备运行信息包括线路上各设备的运行指征,天气信息包括天气类型和天气表现程度值。3. A method for intelligent identification and control of power grid risks based on big data as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the line operation information includes line load rate, line overvoltage rate and line power supply fluctuation, and the equipment operation information includes The operating indicators of each equipment on the line, and the weather information includes weather type and weather performance degree values. 4.如权利要求1所述的一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法,其特征在于:所述监测时刻的划分的具体划分方式为:设定开始监测时刻,进而在一天时间内从开始监测时刻起按照设定的时间间隔进行划分,得到若干监测时刻。4. A method for intelligent identification and control of power grid risks based on big data as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the specific division method of dividing the monitoring time is: setting the starting monitoring time, and then starting from within one day. Divide according to the set time interval from the start of monitoring time to obtain several monitoring time. 5.如权利要求1所述的一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法,其特征在于:所述评判风险供电网是否需要断电处理的实现方式为将风险供电网在风险时刻的断电需求指数与允许断电指数进行对比,若断电需求指数大于允许断电指数,则评判风险供电网需要断电处理,反之则评判风险供电网不需要断电处理。5. A method for intelligent identification and control of power grid risks based on big data as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the method for judging whether a risk power supply network needs power outage processing is to cut off the risk power supply network at the risk moment. The electricity demand index is compared with the allowable power outage index. If the power outage demand index is greater than the allowable power outage index, it is judged that the risk power supply network needs to be cut off, otherwise it is judged that the risk power supply network does not need to be cut off. 6.如权利要求1所述的一种基于大数据的电网风险智能识别管控方法,其特征在于:所述解析风险供电网对应的未断电处理方式参见下述过程:6. A method for intelligent identification and control of power grid risks based on big data as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the non-power outage processing method corresponding to the analytical risk power supply network refers to the following process: 将风险供电网在风险时刻的运行风险指向导入解析算法,得到风险供电网对应的未断电处理方式R。Introduce the operational risk points of the risky power supply network at risk moments into the analytical algorithm , obtain the non-power outage processing method R corresponding to the risk power supply network.
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