A CLI prediction tool for discovering Polymarket opportunities, sizing predictions, syncing and managing portfolios.
- Balanced Kelly Sizing: Sizes bets using the square-root Fisher geodesic to maximize compound growth while protecting against tail drawdowns.
- Dynamic Trade Signals: High-conviction holding (
HOLD (+X% to exit)), spread-tested additions (ADD), and disciplined exits (TAKE PROFIT/SELL) without premature micro-trimming. - Calibrated Beliefs: Adjusts confidence using Bayesian log-odds pooling weighted by historical Brier score accuracy (with optional market exclusion).
- Real-Time CLOB Execution: Walks live orderbook depth to calculate exact VWAP prices, slippage, fees, and compounding APY.
- Multi-Portfolio & Off-Platform Capital: Manage live Polymarket wallets and paper sandboxes with auto-sync and persistent off-platform bankroll tracking.
- Discovery Vectors: Scan markets by Volume, 24h Trending, Liquidity, Soonest, Competitive (50/50), Low Volume, Newest, or Multi-Vector.
- Install dependencies:
pip install -r requirements.txt- Run the CLI:
python predict.py1: Discover Markets: Scan Polymarket using discovery vectors up to 2,000 events deep.2: Review Portfolio: Inspect active, exited, and resolved positions; sort by Kelly, Edge, Exit Proximity, or Ego Impact.3: Target Specific URLs: Paste any Polymarket event URL or slug to analyze and size instantly.4: Wallet Profiles & Sync: Sync balances/positions on launch or on-demand, switch profiles, or create paper sandboxes.5: Tools & Settings: Custom calculators, data management (reset, manual resolve, Ego calibration selector), and filter settings.
Settings can be edited in config.py or interactively via Option 5 -> 4:
MIN_EDGE = 0.00: Minimum required edge before considering a trade (e.g.0.02for 2%).MIN_DAYS = 0: Minimum market duration in days.MAX_DAYS = 420: Maximum market duration in days.EXTREME_ODDS = 0.00: Tail filter to ignore extreme odds near 0% or 100%.
- Live Wallet (
0x...): Automatically syncs on-chain cash and open positions from Polymarket on startup. UseBankroll Add(Option 5 -> 5) to include persistent off-platform funds (Total Bankroll = Cash + Positions + Bankroll Add). - Paper Sandbox (
local/ custom): Hypothetical trading capital defined on profile creation and adjustable anytime via Option 5 -> 5. Paper profiles never query blockchain endpoints or overwrite local capital.