Russia in Global Affairs

How realistic are the current prospects for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, and why is Europe emerging as the principal source of uncertainty? In an interview with the Die Weltwoche, Fyodor Lukyanov examines the dynamics of the ongoing confrontation, the positions of its key stakeholders, and the factors that continue to hinder progress towards a political resolution.

Fyodor Lukyanov has a conversation with Hasan Ünal on the Strategic Compass programme. They discuss the renewed hostilities between Iran and the United States, Russia’s gradual military advances in Ukraine, and growing calls within Russian society and the political establishment for a more forceful strategy to bring the conflict to an end.

The formation of the new international order is a long and chaotic process. Nuclear weapons are prolonging it, as they prevent a decisive showdown. And as long as the process continues, the use of military force will be predicated on ever-changing calculations of what will provide advantages in the present and (still unknowable) future order.

The age in which superior force could reliably produce the desired political outcome is passing and wars are becoming more complex, their consequences less controllable, and their results less linear. The US and Israel may still possess overwhelming military power, but Iran has shown is that this no longer guarantees victory.

While relations between Washington and Beijing are defined by uncertainty and suspicion Moscow and Beijing have constructed something far steadier: a relationship whose trajectory no longer depends on atmospherics or temporary political moods. And in an increasingly unstable international environment, that alone makes it significant.

Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, has a conversation with T-House. He pointed out that the defining feature of China–Russia relations today is “stability.” High-level interactions between the two countries have become so frequent that there is no longer any need to deliberately create “special moments.”

The creation of a genuinely new international framework will be an exceptionally painful process. The available raw material consists of fragments from different historical periods, ideological systems, and institutional models. Somehow these incompatible components must be assembled into something functional.

NATO is unlikely to collapse outright. Institutions of this scale rarely disappear suddenly. More likely is a gradual transformation into something narrower and more fragmented. A core bloc focused primarily on containing Russia may emerge within NATO, while the United States shifts more of its attention toward Asia.

There will be much talk this May about the so-called “strategic triangle” of Russia, China and the United States. Trump is expected in Beijing first, followed by Vladimir Putin’s visit to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Whenever the leaders of the three most influential powers meet, speculation inevitably follows. What if they strike some grand bargain? What if the world suddenly becomes more orderly?