Jeppe Høier

Value creation in Life Sciences 81 : Biotech/Medtech Fundraising & Partnering: Are We Underestimating Randomness? Just back from #NLSdays in Stockholm, met new companies and made new contacts and discussed with some of them if attending these events was helpful. We always underestimate the role of randomness in our lives, turning the random outcomes into neat stories, as we are good at building narratives and explaining that randomness/luck as skill. Some of the Biotech VCs, including Bruce Booth of Atlas Ventures, have also written in the past that many biotech CEOs who are successful are lucky instead of possessing intrinsic skill, which is nothing to be disappointed about because that’s the way the real world works – you need to be at the right place at the right time. To attend these congresses or not is also a topic of discussion among biotech/medtech team members. Some of the classic answers for not attending are: 1. We are too early, Pharma/Strategic Partners will ask us to come back when we have data. 2. The people representing pharma are sometimes not senior people and there is no tangible progress. While some of the arguments may hold to be partly true, the flaw in the first argument is that by not attending these partnering events, we miss the relationship building and engagements with the Strategic Partners. We might also meet some of them whom we may not have thought about. Availability bias – we remember mostly the names of big giants – Pfizer, GSK, Novartis etc. But for me, one of the biggest reasons to attend is the role of randomness. Let me give you an example to drive this point home: I wanted to reach out to one of the C-level executives and despite so many good friends/contacts who were connected to him on LinkedIn, none could make an introduction. But lo! I saw him at the event, approached him, and had an excellent conversation with him. This could happen with any of you. You could meet the Head of R&D of a company you wanted to reach out to, who recently changed the strategy to focus on an area you planned to focus on. So why don’t we value the role of randomness then? Answer: Hindsight bias and Survivorship bias. After the fact, the events look less random than they were. We forget who failed and focus on the few who succeeded and then invent reasons for their successes. Few cases also beautifully land up as case studies in business schools. We judge by winners only, ignoring the full distribution of outcomes and alternative histories that could have happened. Most of us don’t understand probability, as our brains are not built to think in probabilities. OK, enough of talking, are we meeting at the next #NLSdays in 2027? #Farmantra #CFOservices #CFOinsights #valuecreation #randomness #luck #biotech-success #medtech #swedenbio  

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Proud to help shed light on the dynamics behind Series A financing in Danish biotech. While the data shows activity, the demand side tells a different story—and this disconnect is perhaps not unique to Denmark. Across Europe, early-stage biotech funding is tightening, creating a critical gap for innovation. The earliest companies struggle with lack of early stage funding - wonder how hard this could hit us all just 2-5 years from now. Understanding and addressing this challenge is essential if we want to keep European science at a relevant level.

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Excited to share that Rubicon Healthcare Partners has signed an agreement to acquire ClinStorage AB. We look forward to partnering with the ClinStorage team to support the company’s next phase of growth and to further develop a leading Nordic platform in this important space. A big thank you to everyone involved in making this partnership happen. Peter Hammerich Caroline B Kjeksli Henrik K. Torp Mathias Berg Sletten Gabriel Håland Thomas Hoftvedt Ole J. Dahlberg Sebastian Intveen Hilde H. Steineger Jonas Brambeck Jonas Östregård Øystein Åmellem

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🔔Last week to apply for Nordic Innovation House - Silicon Valley’s REACH program. As someone who’s helped scale European business stateside, I know how there are a million things you can get wrong that will derail your expansion. Luckily, there are only a few things you have to get right to be set up for success. Even better: REACH will teach you all the tips and tricks you need to get there. Are you an innovative, Swedish tech start-up looking to the US market eventually? Apply!

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From Reporting to Action: Practical CFO Insights and Hands-On Portfolio Management The VC Finance Club by Earlybird Venture Capital and Venture Intelligence Day by VESTBERRY are joining forces to create a hybrid format that blends learning, peer discussion, and a relaxed networking dinner. For CFOs, finance teams, and other VC professionals who want to see how peers manage portfolios in practice. We bring you a session led by Earlybird, who will frame key practices as part of the CFO value-add. Vestberry co-hosts and helps guide the discussion so you can learn from peers and compare approaches. You will explore ledger and cap table management, waterfall mechanics and distributions, and how to maintain consistent data across portfolio companies. Through real-world case studies, you will see what works in practice and take away concrete frameworks to use in your own fund. The session includes a presentation, a roundtable discussion, and a relaxed networking dinner so you have time to dig into the details, ask your questions, and connect with other practitioners.

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