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Measuring How Cost Scales by Counting Instead of Timing

Measuring How Cost Scales by Counting Instead of Timing

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5 min read
China's sports lottery is not a betting market — it's a formula

China's sports lottery is not a betting market — it's a formula

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4 min read
How long should an A/B test run? Not a number of weeks

How long should an A/B test run? Not a number of weeks

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4 min read
A Curve Fitter That Refuses to Answer

A Curve Fitter That Refuses to Answer

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4 min read
Projecting a tennis match while it's still being played, without point-by-point data

Projecting a tennis match while it's still being played, without point-by-point data

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5 min read
From One Variable to Many: A Beginner's Guide to Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Analysis

From One Variable to Many: A Beginner's Guide to Univariate, Bivariate, and Multivariate Analysis

1
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3 min read
Before you count a replication's null, plant the claim in its own data

Before you count a replication's null, plant the claim in its own data

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14 min read
I backtested a forecast-based model against Kalshi's temperature markets. The market won. Here's the data.

I backtested a forecast-based model against Kalshi's temperature markets. The market won. Here's the data.

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Comments
5 min read
Statistics for Data Science

Statistics for Data Science

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4 min read
That 98% is a model score, not a rate

That 98% is a model score, not a rate

Comments
1 min read
68 public trading strategies: 12 declare a trial count, 0 report a Sharpe

68 public trading strategies: 12 declare a trial count, 0 report a Sharpe

Comments
6 min read
NFL playoff odds after Week 1 (2026): why my Monte Carlo model barely trusts a 31-10 win

NFL playoff odds after Week 1 (2026): why my Monte Carlo model barely trusts a 31-10 win

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5 min read
Forecasting the NFL GOAT QB with Artificial Intelligence: The 2026 Update

Forecasting the NFL GOAT QB with Artificial Intelligence: The 2026 Update

Comments
8 min read
A/B testing: how to test your test

A/B testing: how to test your test

Comments 2
6 min read
NHL playoff odds for 2026-27: 84 games, the wild card rule, and why I don't trust my own model in September

NHL playoff odds for 2026-27: 84 games, the wild card rule, and why I don't trust my own model in September

Comments
5 min read
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