Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM) Price Prediction

By CMC AI03 August 2026 12:35AM (UTC+0)

TLDR

Gram's price outlook hinges on balancing transformative Telegram integration against immediate founder-related legal risks.

Roadmap Execution – Three undisclosed steps in Durov's "Make TON Great Again" plan could drive volatility through 2026, as past upgrades triggered rallies followed by pullbacks.
Telegram Wallet Launch – The rollout of a native, non-custodial wallet to Telegram's 1B+ users this summer is a major adoption catalyst, though real user conversion is unproven.
Founder Legal Risk – Pavel Durov faces Russian terrorism charges and an international warrant, creating compliance uncertainty that could pressure exchanges and investor sentiment.

Deep Dive

1. MTONGA Roadmap Steps (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Pavel Durov's seven-step "Make TON Great Again" roadmap has delivered four upgrades, including a 10x speed increase and the June 2026 rebrand to Gram. Three steps remain undisclosed, likely involving deeper Telegram integration, feeless transactions, or U.S. expansion. Historically, each announced step triggered a price rally (e.g., from ~$1.30 to ~$2.89 in May), followed by a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" decline (Crypto.news).

What this means: This pattern suggests upcoming announcements could spark short-term bullish momentum. However, sustained price appreciation depends on these steps driving tangible on-chain activity and revenue, not just speculation.

2. Native Telegram Wallet Distribution (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Durov announced on July 21, 2026, that Telegram will integrate a native, non-custodial crypto wallet across its app, targeting over 1 billion monthly active users with instant, zero-fee transactions (TradingView). The news initially lifted GRAM by 7%.

What this means: This is arguably the largest potential user onboarding event in crypto. If even a single-digit percentage of Telegram users activate wallets, it could create unprecedented demand for GRAM as the native gas and settlement token. The risk is that adoption lags behind the hype.

3. Founder's Legal & Regulatory Pressure (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Russia's FSB charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with facilitating terrorism on July 29, 2026, issuing an international arrest warrant (Cryptonews.com). This escalates long-standing state pressure, with Russian officials warning citizens to avoid GRAM.

What this means: The charges increase "founder risk," potentially causing exchanges or payment providers to preemptively restrict GRAM due to anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT) compliance concerns. This overhang could suppress buying interest and liquidity regardless of technical merits.

Conclusion

Gram faces a tug-of-war between a high-potential adoption story and severe near-term geopolitical risks. The wallet launch offers a credible path to mass utility, while Durov's legal saga injects volatility and regulatory uncertainty.

Will initial wallet adoption metrics this summer outweigh the persistent founder risk?

CMC AI can make mistakes. Not financial advice.