This is an advanced investment simulator that compares a real estate investment against equity and Bitcoin investments over a 10-year horizon. It is built with Flask and provides detailed, interactive financial modeling.
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Interactive Configuration: Users can modify all key assumptions for the simulation, including:
- Initial Investment Amount
- Real Estate Loan Amount & Interest Rate
- Monthly Rent & Annual Rent Increase %
- Year-over-year growth rates (CAGR) for real estate, equity, and Bitcoin.
- An option to cap the Bitcoin CAGR to a specific percentage.
- Links to the source data for each asset's return schedule.
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Detailed Financial Modeling:
- The Real Estate model accounts for property value appreciation, loan amortization (30-year fixed), property taxes, and rental income.
- The Equity & Bitcoin models start with the same initial investment. The simulation correctly models the impact of return sequencing risk by calculating the Net Present Value (NPV) based on the annual portfolio gains, not just the terminal value.
- An option to use the positive net income from the real estate venture as an annual reinvestment into the other assets.
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Single Simulation Analysis: The main page runs a single, detailed simulation, showing a year-over-year data table and a comparison graph.
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Monte Carlo Simulation (100 Runs):
- A "Run 100 Simulations" feature allows users to analyze the impact of return sequencing risk by shuffling the order of annual returns.
- The results page displays a histogram of the NPV outcomes and a detailed statistical summary, including the Mean, Median, Standard Deviation, 10th Percentile, and 90th Percentile.
- Install dependencies:
make install
- Run the Flask server:
make run
- Open your browser to
http://127.0.0.1:7747.
You can also run the Monte Carlo simulation directly from the command line:
make simThis will run 100 simulations using the parameters in the YAML configuration files and print the statistical results to the console.