Chris Swain

After almost a decade in the XR trenches, I’m hearing a question more often than ever in conversations with brand and agency leaders: “Is VR dead? Is XR over?” The concern is understandable... Meta’s recent XR layoffs and studio closures made headlines. But in my view, we’re far from XR’s demise. Even Oculus founder Palmer Luckey has pushed back on the doomsayers, calling Meta’s downsizing “not a disaster” and rejecting the idea that the company is abandoning VR. He frames the restructuring as “a good thing for the long-term health of the industry” – a necessary reset, not a retreat Before I give my take, here are the facts: 1) Market Momentum: The global XR market was about $50 billion in 2023 and is growing ~30% yearly – projected to exceed $500 billion by 2032. Investors poured $16 billion into XR in 2022 alone, reflecting strong confidence. 2) Tech Titans Betting Big: The XR hardware race has accelerated. Apple’s Vision Pro ecosystem is gaining traction. Meta’s Quest 3 is now mainstream, and Orion AR glasses are expected to ship this year. Major players are doubling down, not pulling back 3) Consumer Engagement Rising: AR is now standard across platforms – more than 2 billion mobile users engage with AR regularly. Over 60% of consumers say they prefer to buy from brands that offer AR, showing sustained demand. 4) VR Usage Up, Not Down: The VR user base is more active than ever. Over $2 billion has been spent on Meta Quest content to date, and time spent in VR continues to rise – clear signs of durable engagement, not decline. So my take is XR is not dead – it’s on the cusp of something big. We’re at the best position I’ve seen yet for an explosion of XR opportunities. The hardware has matured (lighter, faster, more affordable) and the hype has given way to real adoption. Businesses are finding tangible value (training, design, marketing), and consumers are warming up as useful XR experiences emerge. Meta’s shift in strategy isn’t a bad omen but a course correction. It’s refocusing on core tech and empowering the wider ecosystem – exactly what our industry needs for healthy growth, as Luckey pointed out. Far from a “VR winter,” this feels more like spring: the groundwork is laid, the major players are invested, and the ecosystem is more balanced. As a founder, I’m optimistic. The question “Is XR over?” will soon sound absurd. In 2026, all signs point to an XR industry that’s leaner, stronger, and ready to go mainstream, not in some distant future, but now. Let’s get building! Palmer's Opinion: https://lnkd.in/gKKE_CWk Sources in comments

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The GenAi visual content arms race is fascinating to watch…but where is OpenAI? Within the last couple weeks w what seen incredible leaps in capabilities and model upgrades from Nano Banana Pro to Flux 2.0, and Kling 01 all seemlessly integrated into interfaces like Freepik Spaces, Artlist and Higgsfield. But… where is OpenAi? SORA2 already feels outdated and it’s only 2 months old. Atlas is a great browser, but Google Gemini 3 is eating its lunch. Once the darling of this skyrocketing industry, is OpenAi still ahead of the curve, or starting to fall behind?

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Happy New Year! Here's some of my favorite stories / think pieces from 2025 that I believe will be even more relevant in 2026 (link in comments): Why XR Headsets Will NEVER Go Mainstream: Talking with veteran XR experts like Avi Bar-Zeev and Jeremy Bailenson of Stanford (quoted here) convinced me of that: "The technology companies are trying to foist a model of all day use upon VR, whereas my research indicates that it is not a medium for daily use, but best one reserved for special experiences.  VR gets used plenty when it solves a hard problem."  How a Gen AI “Creation” Tool Hurt Rec Room: There are many ways to encourage your player community to engage in UGC, but gen AI "prompting" is an especially problematic man: "The AI frustration for top creators is for the obvious reasons you'd imagine. If you spent years building up skills to make top Rec Room games, you don't want to see easier tools coming out that help others skip some of the learning steps and start building games and rooms faster than you were able to when you were learning." Why Gamers Generally Prefer Fantasy MMOs Over Sci-Fi: My dear friend and colleague Amber Case pointed me to a study on a core human preference for the fractals of nature, which led me to notice that almost *all* best selling video games are set in a simulated nature setting. All that and much more on my Patreon -- join for free to read! (Link in comments.)

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