Carlson Lau

The structural breakdown of Indonesia’s assets, evidenced by foreign investors dumping over $3.3 billion in equities and pushing 10-year yields to 7.47%, confirms the fragility of net energy-importing EMs under a sustained war-premium regime. Despite BI's shock rate hikes and desperate investor calls, the market remains highly sceptical of fiscal slippage under the new administration. From a credit underwriting perspective, the primary concern isn't just a falling currency. It is the vicious loop of rising financing costs and central bank exhaustion.  Always assess the credit risk of the corporate entity in question. Corporate Credit Risk Agentic AI: https://lnkd.in/dbAjMvFw Connecting blindly to standard generative AI leaves your sensitive financial data exposed and risks costly, hallucinated errors when you can least afford them. Our specialised Agentic platform acts as a secure, intelligent shield, protecting your data privacy while ensuring every macro insight is anchored in hard, verifiable market reality. #creditrisk #privatecredit #debt #lending #sovereign

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🌏 Asian Markets Rally Following Trump's Dovish Stance on Trade and Greenland, with Indonesia and Australia Leading Regional Gains 📈 Asian stock markets experienced broad-based gains on Thursday, recovering from previous session losses as investors responded positively to U.S. President Donald Trump's more conciliatory tone at the World Economic Forum. Trump's decision to rule out military force for acquiring Greenland and his withdrawal of threatened tariffs on European nations significantly eased global trade tensions, providing a catalyst for the regional rally. 📊 Indonesia's Market Performance: Indonesia's stock market rebounded strongly, rising 0.8% to 9,084 points, partially recovering from the previous day's 1.4% decline. The recovery was supported by Bank Indonesia's decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% for the fourth consecutive month, demonstrating the central bank's commitment to rupiah stability. Domestically, President Prabowo's revocation of forest exploitation permits for 28 firms in Sumatra following regulatory violations added to positive sentiment. Key performers included Telkom Indonesia (+4.2%), Astra International (+2.7%), and United Tractors (+1.4%), with gains concentrated in infrastructure, cyclical, and energy sectors. 🌐 Broader Asian Market Trends: The rally extended across the region, with Japan's Nikkei 225 surging nearly 2% to break a five-session losing streak, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.65%. Australia's strong employment data, showing unemployment falling to 4.1% (below the 4.4% forecast) and 65,200 new jobs added in December, further boosted regional confidence. South Korea and Taiwan posted gains of 2.1% and 1.8% respectively. 💹 The positive momentum was underpinned by Wall Street's strong overnight performance, where major indices gained 1.2%, helping restore investor confidence after recent volatility. Energy and financial sectors led gains across most Asian markets, while gold miners faced pressure in Australia. Source:https://lnkd.in/dhyMPqaF #MarketUpdate #AsiaPacific #GlobalEconomy #InvestmentTrends #EquityMarkets

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We anticipate that consumers will benefit from lower inflation and the lagged impact of rate cuts in 2026. We also expect an acceleration in government spending on subsidies in countries like Japan and Korea, tax cuts in India and increased social spending in Indonesia. Yet, persistently weak consumer confidence is likely to cap the upside. Official data indicates that layoffs in Indonesia reached 42,000 – up 32% YoY – primarily in the industrial and retail sectors. This suggests China’s overcapacity may be weighing on Indonesia’s manufacturing growth. In the Philippines, ongoing graft investigations could keep sentiment subdued over the coming quarters, alongside moderating wage growth amid rising labour force participation.

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𝐁𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐥𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐁𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬 Indonesia’s fixed income and money market funds, especially those backed by corporate bonds have grown rapidly, offering investors what appears to be 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐍𝐀𝐕 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫-𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧-𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬. But this apparent stability hides a 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲. When stress hits and redemptions force real selling, 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬. The result: sudden NAV breaks, loss of confidence, and self-reinforcing redemption cycles. We’ve seen this movie before. The solution is 𝐧𝐨𝐭 abrupt mark-to-market. The solution is 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞: ▪️ More robust and diversified pricing governance ▪️ More realistic, multi-factor bond valuation ▪️ Better market transparency and data ▪️ And sustained investor education Most importantly, we must accept a simple truth: 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤. There is no such thing as a risk asset with deposit-like stability. As asset managers and market participants, we have a 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐞 𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭, through honest pricing, better education, and a more resilient capital market. A stronger bond fund market starts with 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲. -armand

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After two quiet years, Vietnam’s IPO market has woken up. In 2023, only three IPOs raised a total of just 7 mUSD. Last year, there was only one, worth 37 mUSD Now the picture is different: Vinpearl listed earlier this year at a 6 bnUSD valuation. And a new multi-billion-USD pipeline is forming that includes Masan Consumer (reported 1 bnUSD IPO), VPBank Securities, Techcombank Securities, and several consumer names. The government has also made listings more attractive by cutting the IPO-to-trading window from 90 to 30 days. This is a welcome sign. But traditional IPOs mainly serve large, established businesses. The bigger challenge remains: where do SEA’s high-growth tech companies go when they outgrow venture funding but aren’t ready for a US IPO? For years, the answer was Hong Kong. But that route became politically controversial during the “China is un-investible” period. Which left a structural gap. As I noted in a recent DealStreetAsia interview, one potential solution now being advanced is Vietnam’s plan to create a secondary exchange for technology companies. If successful, this could keep more tech growth stories in Vietnam, give founders an earlier path to liquidity, and open new opportunities for long-term investors. The IPO revival is a sign of momentum. The secondary exchange could be the breakthrough. Together, they show Vietnam’s market is not only rising, but evolving.

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Indonesia Takes the #1 Spot on Bloomberg’s Global Scorecard 🇮🇩 ​📈 Robust Earnings: Corporate performance continues to defy expectations, showing strong bottom-line resilience. ​💎 Lower Valuations: Despite the growth, Indonesian equities remain attractively priced compared to regional peers, offering a significant margin of safety. ​🌊 Net Foreign Flows: Global institutional investors are voting with their capital, leading to a consistent influx of foreign investment. ​Indonesia isn't just an emerging market story anymore; it’s a performance story. Source : Bloomberg Intelligence ​#Investing #Indonesia #EmergingMarkets #StockMarket #Finance

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Private equity dealmaking in Southeast Asia has remained robust despite a prolonged exit slowdown, as fund managers continue to deploy capital across the region while holding onto portfolio companies for longer, according to speakers at DealStreetAsia’s Indonesia PE-VC Summit 2026. Pimfha Chan's report

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