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Jozsef Turai liked thisJozsef Turai liked thisThe last few weeks on the European #energymarkets have been a wild ride. #TTF FrontMonth jumped more than 30% pulling most of the future power contracts with it from Oct_26 to even Cal_27 in #DE, but across Europe really. Hormuz war still has no end in sight, we hear that the #gas storages are on alarming levels etc. - so the continent gas supply is under sever shock again after the 2022 energy crisis. On top of all that we had a very dry and warm summer, which put the core of the power generation under heavy stress as well - what I did in this presentation is pull the most interesting numbers around the change in the fuel mix of 2026 vs 2024-2025 avg ('normal').: Key findings: - nuclear and hydro run-of-river generation combined was 15.4 GW lower than normal between 1 August - 16 September. - solar +12 GW while gas and coal stood +8.2 GW in the same period (monthly avg. gen. / solar could only help between 08-20) #BE decided to close nuclear reactors but the rest of the lost generation was down to extreme weather - highlighting the vulnerability of the European grid. Gas, coal and lignite gen. combined is running on a 3YR high since May 2026 - and that's the key reason why the gas supply crisis (Hormuz) matter a lot more now, than 3 months ago, because we are heading into the winter, where solar will help even less, and the hydro outlook still looks very weak. (and some nuclear unit ramp up is also lagging) - slide 9. shows the fuel mix changes split between day/night, while slide 10. shows via the residual load hourly avg. (demand minus wind and solar) that the morning and evening peaks are practically unchanged buy the solar growth so we needed fossils there (slide 11.). - adding #BESS generation change would have been great to see it's impact, which has obviously significantly changed since 2024 for example, but unfortunately the reporting of those numbers are inconsistent on entso-e. (to say the very least). +1 interesting (and sad) fact, that the #SEE Hydro drop this year vs 2024-2025 avg. looks small -0.5 GW (-30%) but here the 2024-2025 avg. is already -20.7% below the average of 2019-2023. (slide 12.) Three of the four driest August–September windows on record are the last three years: 2026 at 1,264 MW, 2025 at 1,795 and 2024 at 1,887. Only 2022, at 1,639 MW, interrupts the run; every other year from 2019 to 2023 ranged from 2,069 to 2,774 MW. That looks like scary trend, not a one off events. Thanks Georgios Merachtsakis for the help, additional perspective! If you also need hydro outlook for example, we have it at Montel Analytics, get in contact!
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Jozsef Turai liked thisJozsef Turai liked thisPresident Macron has waded into the EU Methane Regulation debate, urging the Commission to delay its import requirements to tame winter energy prices. But the case for meaningful relief on winter bills remains unproven. The French president requested a one-year delay to the monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) requirements due from 1 January 2027, according to the Financial Times and Les Echos. These rules require EU importers to demonstrate that overseas producers’ methane MRV meet EU-equivalent standards, covering supply contracts concluded or renewed from 4 August 2024. The Commission has already recommended waiving non-compliance penalties through the end of 2029. But that recommendation is non-binding and leaves the legal obligation intact. That is why importers are still seeking a change to the deadline. Macron argues that introducing these obligations, even without penalties, could disrupt winter energy supplies and push up prices. The gas industry and several EU member states share that concern. A delay could ease compliance obstacles to bringing some LNG cargoes into Europe. In a tight market, even marginal supplies matter. But postponing the rules cannot increase global LNG production, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or guarantee the kind of warm and windy weather that Europe really needs this winter. His intervention merely highlights how Europe’s enduring dependence on imported gas leaves households and industry exposed to forces its leaders cannot control. The immediate benefit to importers is clearer: postponing compliance obligations and the associated legal uncertainty. The benefit to consumers depends on whether that secures additional deliveries and translates into lower prices. Macron should explain how much supply is at risk, why the existing concessions are insufficient, and what consumers stand to save. Without that evidence, Europe risks weakening methane accountability in exchange for an uncertain promise of cheaper energy. #methane #regulation #Europe
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Jozsef Turai liked thisJozsef Turai liked thisAs past few days surprised with huge power price difference between EU markets and CBAM-subjected non-EU countries, we are sharing with you short analysis about this. More detailed analyses and future developments will be published in our price forecasting reportsSUB-OPTIMAL HANDLING OF CBAM CHALLENGES IN SEE POWER MARKETSSUB-OPTIMAL HANDLING OF CBAM CHALLENGES IN SEE POWER MARKETS
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Jozsef Turai liked thisJozsef Turai liked thisI'll be presenting this Wednesday, 12th November on Solarplaza Summit Hungary about #BESS cashflows, revenue benchmarks on mature markets (#NL). The dutch market currently has ca. 300 MW BESS operational, which is likely to (at least) double next year - this market is forerunner to watch for #HU which will bring the first few hundred MW of BESS online in 2026! See you there? #solarplaza #solarplazasummit #PV #BESS #Montel
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Jozsef Turai liked thisJozsef Turai liked this⛔ European Energy Markets Face Catastrophic Transformation - Critical Analysis If you're trading European power or gas markets, managing industrial energy costs, or making infrastructure investments, this analysis contains intelligence that could help protect your portfolio from devastating losses. 🦹♀️ The Hidden Crisis Unfolding Now: My groundbreaking 50-page analysis reveals why European electricity markets are heading for systematic failure towards 2030. This isn't speculation - it's mathematical inevitability based on 40 years of weather data combined with confirmed generation changes. 🔢 The Brutal Numbers (changing numbers does not change the risks): - Wind generation 25 %+ below normal now occurs 44.6% of all days (up from 40.2% in 1980s) - About 25.7 GW baseload capacity closes by 2026 - that's 120 TWh of reliable generation vanishing - Winter shows 15.5% of days with calm winds - 15-day calm periods at 50% below normal generation increased 233% since the 1980s - Current wind farms overestimate capacity by 30% - the sector is built on false assumptions 💻 Why Your Current Models Are Worthless: Traditional SRMC models assume that weather follows normal distributions. WRONG. We're experiencing bimodal extremes where markets swing between massive oversupply (-€50/MWh) and catastrophic scarcity (€1,500+/MWh). The winter 2024-2025 spikes above €800/MWh were just the preview. ⛽ The Gas Trap Nobody Sees: When wind fails for 15 days (now happening every decade, compared to every 33 years historically), gas becomes the sole price setter. Gas plants transform from 15% to 50 %+ capacity factors. Gas infrastructure investments lock in fossil dependency through 2050. Climate goals become impossible. 👓 Trading Insights You'll Gain: → Which months show the highest correlation between calm periods and price explosions → Why Q4-Q1 futures can be catastrophically mispriced → How gas-power correlation jumps from 0.40 to 0.85+ during extremes → Why Nordic markets face the same fate (non-linear risk spreading north) → Early warning signals 10-15 days before price eruptions ☢️ For Industrial Decision Makers: Your energy strategy assumes a stable baseload is in place. By 2026, it won't. During 14 winter days when both wind and solar fail, you face: €1,000+/MWh prices OR forced curtailment. No hedging protects against 2-week shortage events. 🪫 The Infrastructure Reality: Battery Storage Needs: 14,400 GWh for a 10-day backup. Planned by 2030: 400 GWh. That's a 36x gap—nuclear timeline: 2035+ minimum. The only solution is gas, which requires €10-15 billion in upgrades, creating a 2050 lock-in. 🧲 Action Required: €75 gets you 50 pages (statistics, figures, maps) of survival intelligence, including seasonal risk matrices, scarcity price mechanics, and strategic recommendations. 🚻 Also written for decision-makers, you don't have to be an engineer or a scientist. See introduction and full report at: https://lnkd.in/daDNVtm4
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ENWS Energia Kereskedő Kft.
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Flame Energy
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ReneWave
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Romania-Insider.com
Romania must move from "market with potential" to strategic platform for energy capital, says Enexus Renewable Energy CCO Alina Stefan In this interview with Romania Insider, Alina Ștefan, Chief Commercial Officer of Enexus, explains why Ankara was the right place to host this dialogue, where she sees the most immediate opportunities in Romanian renewables, storage and grid related infrastructure, and how the newly launched Black Sea Energy Cooperation Association (BESCA) aims to turn interest into concrete investment projects in Romania, in multiple areas. She also sets out a clear ambition: helping Romania evolve from a simple “opportunity market” into a strategic platform for international energy capital in the wider Black Sea region. Read more below 👇
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ThinkGeoEnergy
Hungary 🇭🇺 has opened three ☝ geothermal funding calls worth HUF 41 billion (~USD 120 million) under the Jedlik Ányos Energy Program to accelerate ♨️geothermal deployment. The funding initiative is in line with the National Geothermal Strategy published by the Ministry of Energy in 2024, which sets a goal to double domestic energy use in Hungary by 2030 🙌 . Read more ➡️ : https://lnkd.in/desjr8bY #Geothermal #EnergyPolicy #DistrictHeating #RenewableEnergy
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Ovidiu Bogdanescu
⚡ Back online — and as usual, Romania's energy sector didn't slow down one bit! I've been away for a few weeks, but the market had plenty to say. Here are a few stories worth highlighting that you might have missed 👇 🏦 Banca Transilvania — €71.4M loan for Entek Elektrik PV park Romania's largest bank continues to back renewables. BT announced financing for the Eco Sun Niculești solar park — another sign that local banks are increasingly comfortable with renewable energy financing. 💪 🌬️ Eurowind Energy — €450M wind farm in northeastern Romania Eurowind Energy is reportedly planning a large-scale wind farm in northeastern Romania, valued at approximately €450 million. Wind is coming back in a big way. 🎯 🏭 Coal units reactivated during the energy crisis A reminder of where we still are: Romania brought back two mothballed coal units — including Unit 4 of the Rovinari lignite plant (300 MW) and a reserve unit at Paroșeni — to offset Cernavodă's absence. Renewables are growing fast, but the backup still runs on coal. 🤔 🔋 Green House program pivots to batteries Romania's government-run Green House program is now focusing exclusively on batteries — and Acting PM Bolojan argued that solar power should be mandatory only when accompanied by storage. The policy direction is clear. ⚡ 🏗️ Rezolv Energy — 600 MW Dunărea wind farm heading to financial close Rezolv's third Romanian project — the 600 MW Dunărea East & West wind farm in Constanța County — is expected to reach financial close later this year, with operations scheduled for 2028. Their Romanian pipeline is becoming one of the most impressive in the region. 🌍 ⚠️ Nuclearelectrica CEO steps down Romania's Nuclearelectrica CEO has resigned amid identified shortcomings in the 462 MW Doicești SMR project. A setback for Romania's nuclear ambitions — one to watch. 👀 A lot happened. And almost all of it points in the same direction — Romania's energy transition is accelerating, and the opportunities for those paying close attention keep growing. 🌱 #ROEnergyNews #Romania #Renewables #BESS #SolarEnergy #WindEnergy #EnergyInvestment #EnergyTransition #Coal #Nuclear
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Gerd Woelbling
Gazprom raises gas production 0.6% to 209.5 bcm in H1, overall gas production in Russia down 3% The Gazprom group increased production of natural and associated gas 0.64% year-on-year to 209.48 billion cubic meters (bcm) in the first half of 2025, compared to 208.14 bcm a year previously, the company said in a report. This includes data on production by organizations in which Gazprom invests, categorized as joint operations. Overall gas production across Russia decreased 3% to 335.299 bcm.
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