A real load curve.
Your planning decision.
Explore published ERCOT load, choose a hypothetical capacity, and compare a load-reduction assumption. Every result can be downloaded and independently reproduced. No account required.
A high-load summer window. Compare a fixed capacity assumption with a proportional load reduction.
Where does load cross the boundary?
Hourly interval starts, America/Chicago · load in MW
Hours above assumed capacity
21 → 7
Before → after assumed reduction, out of 72 hours
Counterfactual gap energy
4,458 MWh
Before reduction: 66,683 MWh. Not expected unserved energy.
Reduction needed to clear the peak
6.39%
Algebraic minimum at this assumed capacity; feasibility is not evaluated.
Take the calculation with you.
The report includes all 72 observations, assumptions, formulas, source links, and the source archive checksum. Downloads stay on your device. Share the report or a link to let someone reproduce your analysis.
One hour, worked in full.
Summer 2023, 2023-08-10 15:00:00-05:00 (interval start, America/Chicago), at the workshop settings: 80,000 MW assumed capacity and a 5% uniform reduction. These numbers are computed from the bundled data, not typed in.
- Recorded load
- 84,660.62 MW — 99.1% of this case's recorded peak (85,464.12 MW).
- Adjusted load
- 84,660.62 × (1 − 5 / 100) = 80,427.59 MW.
- Gap against capacity
- max(0, 80,427.59 − 80,000) = 427.59 MW. The hour counts as above capacity after the reduction — and before it, with a recorded gap of 4,660.62 MW.
What counts as a stress hour?
- A stress hour is an hour with a strictly positive gap: load above the assumed capacity you set. It is not a percentage of the peak — an hour at 94% of peak demand can still sit below the assumed capacity, and then it is not a stress hour.
- Equality is not exceedance. Load exactly equal to capacity has a gap of zero.
- Timestamps are hourly interval starts in America/Chicago.
- The independent checker recomputes all 72 hourly rows and every summary metric from the bundled source data and compares them with your downloaded report. If anything differs, it lists each field with the expected and reported values and the likely cause — different assumptions, rows shifted by an hour, rounding, or a wrong value shown with its formula inputs.
What would change your decision?
Review a source value, reproduce the calculation, or identify a missing constraint. A useful critique becomes an inspectable issue and a documented product change.
Open the 10-minute review guideSource and interpretation
ERCOT published hourly native load. This series differs from the forecast-zone load data used by the probabilistic research candidate.
Download the original ERCOT archiveArchive SHA-256: 34e7067d3273f56be42ce469e23747cff0db736d668519070ad63674c3ddecd4
Gap energy = ∑ max(0, load − assumed capacity) × 1 hour. It has no probability model. Transmission, reserves, generation outages, behavioral response, and costs are not included.
Versioned datasetDataset checksumInspect all 72 hourly calculations
| Interval start | Recorded MW | Adjusted MW | Capacity MW | Gap MW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-09T00:00:00-05:00 | 63,272 | 60,109 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T01:00:00-05:00 | 60,569 | 57,541 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T02:00:00-05:00 | 58,453 | 55,531 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T03:00:00-05:00 | 57,070 | 54,217 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T04:00:00-05:00 | 56,437 | 53,615 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T05:00:00-05:00 | 56,972 | 54,123 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T06:00:00-05:00 | 57,981 | 55,082 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T07:00:00-05:00 | 58,160 | 55,252 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T08:00:00-05:00 | 60,550 | 57,522 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T09:00:00-05:00 | 64,439 | 61,217 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T10:00:00-05:00 | 68,599 | 65,169 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T11:00:00-05:00 | 73,095 | 69,440 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T12:00:00-05:00 | 77,108 | 73,252 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T13:00:00-05:00 | 80,552 | 76,524 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T14:00:00-05:00 | 82,812 | 78,671 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T15:00:00-05:00 | 83,286 | 79,122 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T16:00:00-05:00 | 83,661 | 79,478 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T17:00:00-05:00 | 83,736 | 79,549 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T18:00:00-05:00 | 82,904 | 78,758 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T19:00:00-05:00 | 80,435 | 76,413 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T20:00:00-05:00 | 77,864 | 73,971 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T21:00:00-05:00 | 75,509 | 71,734 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T22:00:00-05:00 | 71,135 | 67,578 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-09T23:00:00-05:00 | 67,010 | 63,660 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T00:00:00-05:00 | 63,436 | 60,264 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T01:00:00-05:00 | 60,816 | 57,775 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T02:00:00-05:00 | 58,791 | 55,851 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T03:00:00-05:00 | 57,315 | 54,449 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T04:00:00-05:00 | 56,630 | 53,799 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T05:00:00-05:00 | 56,821 | 53,980 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T06:00:00-05:00 | 57,737 | 54,850 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T07:00:00-05:00 | 57,844 | 54,952 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T08:00:00-05:00 | 60,181 | 57,172 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T09:00:00-05:00 | 64,164 | 60,955 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T10:00:00-05:00 | 68,742 | 65,305 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T11:00:00-05:00 | 73,481 | 69,807 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T12:00:00-05:00 | 77,853 | 73,961 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T13:00:00-05:00 | 81,355 | 77,287 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T14:00:00-05:00 | 83,434 | 79,262 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T15:00:00-05:00 | 84,661 | 80,428 | 80,000 | 428 |
| 2023-08-10T16:00:00-05:00 | 85,302 | 81,037 | 80,000 | 1,037 |
| 2023-08-10T17:00:00-05:00 | 85,464 | 81,191 | 80,000 | 1,191 |
| 2023-08-10T18:00:00-05:00 | 84,432 | 80,210 | 80,000 | 210 |
| 2023-08-10T19:00:00-05:00 | 81,858 | 77,765 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T20:00:00-05:00 | 79,322 | 75,356 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T21:00:00-05:00 | 77,348 | 73,481 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T22:00:00-05:00 | 73,280 | 69,616 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-10T23:00:00-05:00 | 69,074 | 65,620 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T00:00:00-05:00 | 65,290 | 62,026 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T01:00:00-05:00 | 62,336 | 59,219 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T02:00:00-05:00 | 60,029 | 57,028 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T03:00:00-05:00 | 58,611 | 55,680 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T04:00:00-05:00 | 58,002 | 55,102 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T05:00:00-05:00 | 58,325 | 55,409 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T06:00:00-05:00 | 59,180 | 56,221 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T07:00:00-05:00 | 59,310 | 56,344 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T08:00:00-05:00 | 61,545 | 58,468 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T09:00:00-05:00 | 65,368 | 62,100 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T10:00:00-05:00 | 70,021 | 66,520 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T11:00:00-05:00 | 74,195 | 70,486 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T12:00:00-05:00 | 78,038 | 74,136 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T13:00:00-05:00 | 81,590 | 77,511 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T14:00:00-05:00 | 83,766 | 79,577 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T15:00:00-05:00 | 84,777 | 80,538 | 80,000 | 538 |
| 2023-08-11T16:00:00-05:00 | 85,038 | 80,786 | 80,000 | 786 |
| 2023-08-11T17:00:00-05:00 | 84,492 | 80,268 | 80,000 | 268 |
| 2023-08-11T18:00:00-05:00 | 82,971 | 78,822 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T19:00:00-05:00 | 80,159 | 76,151 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T20:00:00-05:00 | 77,664 | 73,781 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T21:00:00-05:00 | 75,592 | 71,813 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T22:00:00-05:00 | 71,911 | 68,315 | 80,000 | 0 |
| 2023-08-11T23:00:00-05:00 | 67,980 | 64,581 | 80,000 | 0 |