https://www.notus.org/economy Economy en-US Fri, 31 Jul 2026 16:22:16 GMT https://www.notus.org/courts/letitia-james-new-york-prediction-market-kalshi-lawsuit-polymarket Angie Orellana Hernandez The lawsuit comes amid disputes between the federal government and states over who has jurisdiction to regulate the rapidly growing prediction market industry. Fri, 31 Jul 2026 16:22:16 GMT https://www.notus.org/courts/letitia-james-new-york-prediction-market-kalshi-lawsuit-polymarket New York Attorney General Letitia James sued prediction market Kalshi in state court on Friday, alleging that the company runs an “illegal gambling operation” without proper state licenses.

James’ lawsuit comes amid disputes between an independent federal agency and state governments over who has jurisdiction to regulate the rapidly growing prediction market industry, which includes companies like Kalshi and Polymarket. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction marketplaces, has argued that the companies are “designated contracted markets” that offer event contracts, otherwise known as swaps, that offer odds on yes-no scenarios.

State governments have rebutted that argument, contending that the sport contracts offered on prediction markets mirror sports gambling that falls under states’ regulatory purview. Forty-four state attorneys general, including James, signed a letter to the CFTC on Monday asking that the agency “start afresh with its rulemaking and clarify that sports bets and gambling cannot be traded on [designated contract markets], but are instead subject to state law.”

James used a similar stance in her lawsuit against Kalshi, accusing the company of circumventing state regulations on sports betting “by offering what is quintessentially wagering under the guise of ‘event contracts’ on a ‘prediction market.’” The lawsuit also accused Kalshi of allowing individuals under the age of 21 to wager on the platform.

James’ lawsuit asked a judge to bar Kalshi from operating within the state by offering “contracts relating to sports, culture, elections, and other events” without required licenses. It also asked for Kalshi to pay restitution to consumers, pay a fine equal to three times the gains the company made and forfeit any alleged illegal profits.

“New York’s gambling laws protect children from underage betting and help combat gambling addiction,” James said in a statement announcing the lawsuit. “No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple. By ignoring our laws, Kalshi is running an illegal operation and harming New Yorkers in the process.”

The CFTC preemptively requested a temporary restraining order in federal court ahead of James’ lawsuit to stop the state from pursuing civil or criminal enforcement actions against Kalshi while litigation continues.

Kalshi and New York were engaged in “ongoing negotiations” on a comprehensive tax proposal prior to the lawsuit, a source familiar with Kalshi’s negotiations told NOTUS. The source said New York did not respond to the proposal “in substance” and then “abandoned” the idea.

Sean Butler, a spokesperson for Gov. Kathy Hochul, said Kalshi has "blatantly violated state law” and “deprived New Yorkers of billions in revenue” in response to a request for comment about the tax negotiations.

“Weak attempts to self-regulate are meaningless,” Butler said. “If a company willfully violates state law, they must face consequences."

Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s head of communications, called New York’s lawsuit “political theater.”

“States can’t just shut down a federally licensed exchange,” Diana said in a statement. “This would also hurt New Yorkers, who would be driven offshore. We love New York, we love New Yorkers, and New Yorkers love our product."

This story was updated to reflect new statements from Hochul and Kalshi.]]> https://www.notus.org/economy/fed-maintains-interest-rates-iran-war Jade Lozada The committee cited “elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.” Wed, 29 Jul 2026 18:09:59 GMT https://www.notus.org/economy/fed-maintains-interest-rates-iran-war The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday as Chair Kevin Warsh and Fed officials contend with volatile oil prices and persistent inflation since the pandemic.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement.

The Fed has now cited the conflict in the Middle East for contributing to economic uncertainty in four consecutive decisions to keep interest rates where they are.

That hasn’t stopped President Donald Trump — who told Fox News Wednesday morning that the U.S. would “beat the fucking shit out” of Iran — from insisting on lower rates.

Trump accused board members of standing in the way of lower rates, in a gaggle with reporters Monday.

“Kevin’s fantastic, but he’s got a board, and the board members are very political,” Trump said. “You need the consent of some people that have perhaps bad intentions.”

The Fed’s rate-setting committee voted 9-3 to preserve rates at 3.5 to 3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting since December, citing elevated inflation stemming in part from energy prices and strong productivity growth and capital investment.

The three officials in the minority voted to raise rates by a quarter percentage point. Officials indicated in their quarterly projections last month — a practice that Warsh has criticized for revealing too much of the central bank’s thinking to eager investors — that rates may rise this year to tamp down inflation.

Warsh is being pulled in opposite directions by high inflation numbers and a president who has made no secret that he wants to see rates slashed to stimulate economic growth. The annual inflation rate slowed from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June as the U.S. and Iran settled into a ceasefire agreement, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The rate-setting committee maintains a goal of lowering inflation to 2%. The inflation rate last punched in at or below 2% in February 2021.

That goal increasingly appears far away for the central bank. Oil prices surged this month after Trump announced the end of the ceasefire with Iran on July 8.

Warsh has his own qualms with Fed officials.

The Fed chair wants to transform how the Fed communicates with the public. He has criticized officials’ “dot plot” economic projections and the practice of Fed governors delivering speeches on economic topics around the country. Warsh has also shortened interest rate announcements from the FOMC, saying markets are overly sensitive to Fed communications.

Warsh recently appointed five task forces that will examine topics ranging from Fed communications to the impact of AI on the economy and the drivers of inflation. The members include university economists, former foreign central bankers and CEOs.]]> https://www.notus.org/new-york/mamdani-appoints-lina-khan-new-york-economic-development Jenna Monnin Khan, a progressive antitrust champion and former head of the FTC, will serve as chair of the city’s Economic Development Corporation. Wed, 22 Jul 2026 17:00:45 GMT https://www.notus.org/new-york/mamdani-appoints-lina-khan-new-york-economic-development New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Wednesday appointed Lina Khan, the former chair of the Federal Trade Commission under President Joe Biden, to serve as board chair of the city's Economic Development Corporation.

Mamdani also nominated Tony Shorris to serve as president and CEO of the EDC, which serves as the city’s economic development arm. Shorris was the city’s first deputy mayor under Bill de Blasio and has decades of civil service experience.

“Frankly, this feels like the economic wonk’s version of the 1992 Olympic basketball Dream Team,” Mamdani said at a press conference. “It brings me great pleasure to say that today's appointees not only share a vision for the future of this office, but a commitment to executing on it.”

The mayor added that he is looking forward to partnering with Khan and Shorris “every step of the way.”

Khan advised Mamdani on economic policy and claimed to have found dormant mayoral powers to lower costs for New Yorkers as one of the four co-chairs of Mamdani’s transition team.

In her remarks Wednesday, Khan echoed Mamdani’s emphasis on affordability and committed herself to using the position for the benefit of all the city’s residents.

“EDC has enormous capacity to make life materially better for New Yorkers, and to ensure that public resources are being used to build state capacity,” she said.

Mamdani’s predecessor as mayor, Eric Adams, was indicted on federal corruption charges for allegedly accepting campaign money and travel benefits from individuals connected to the Turkish government. The Justice Department eventually dismissed the case, but Adams lost his reelection bid after facing scrutiny over the allegations on the campaign trail.

Mamdani signaled in his inaugural address that rooting out bad business practices in the city's government would be a priority: “We will answer to all New Yorkers, not to any billionaire or oligarch who thinks they can buy our democracy,” he said at the time.

Now, in Khan, he is tapping a strong advocate of executive power to help lead the EDC, which manages properties and projects on behalf of the city as well as some public-private partnerships.

While at the FTC under Biden, Khan pursued aggressive antitrust enforcement actions against large multinational companies including Amazon and Ticketmaster. Khan’s progressive antitrust philosophy upended decades of previous enforcement, shifting the focus from protecting price competition among companies to addressing the harms of market dominance for consumers.

“As commissioner of the FTC, Lina Khan consistently delivered for working Americans, taking aim at the corporate monopolies that not only hurt working people at the checkout line but make life harder for the small businesses that are the backbone of our economy,” Mamdani said.

Khan was the youngest person to serve as chair of the FTC when she was appointed in 2021 at age 32.

Following Wednesday’s announcement, some voices in the business community expressed concerns about Khan’s likely approach to the position. 

“The Economic Development Corporation exists to expand the economy, attract private investment and jobs, and foster innovation,” said Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Competitiveness Coalition, a conservative-leaning free-market advocacy group. “Entrusting that mission to an activist regulator whose federal tenure was defined by hostility toward enterprise, severe agency mismanagement, and job losses is a disaster in the making for New Yorkers.”]]> https://www.notus.org/economy/democrats-minimum-wage-2028 Jade Lozada There just isn’t consensus on whether it should be a pillar of the party’s economic platform. Thu, 16 Jul 2026 18:36:59 GMT https://www.notus.org/economy/democrats-minimum-wage-2028 Democrats have set their sights on federal minimum wage laws to beef up the party’s platform ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. Just not everyone in the party agrees it needs to be a pillar of how Democrats address affordability.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut), who has been rumored to be considering a presidential bid, released a bill in June that would gradually raise the minimum wage to $25 per hour by 2039. Democratic senators told NOTUS that they are now discussing both updating Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vermont) bill to lift the minimum hourly wage to $17 by 2030, and introducing an entirely new bill tackling the federal minimum wage, which is currently $7.25 per hour.

Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona told NOTUS he would consider legislation to raise the federal minimum wage, as did New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker. Both senators have also been floated as Democratic presidential contenders.

“I am in conversations. There’s a lot of us Dems talking about a bill. I don’t want to talk any more about it because I’m not sure where things stand,” Booker said. He declined to offer details on how a prospective bill would differ from existing proposals, or whether he would sponsor or cosponsor the bill. Last year, Sanders’ bill notched 33 Democratic cosponsors.

The slate of minimum wage proposals indicates the policy could be a central front in the party’s messaging on the economy, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs and war in Iran raise prices for voters anxious for relief. Potential Democratic contenders for the presidency have already released a stack of bills to cut taxes for middle- and low-income earners and farmers, as well as to raise taxes on billionaires.

But not all Democrats are convinced minimum wage is the right policy to prioritize in the party’s economic platform over the next two years.

“Most people in Michigan wouldn't work for the current minimum wage in the state of Michigan, right? Like they're being paid more, and they're still not able to afford their life,” Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan) said.

“It's just, to me, not the top thing that I hear from people, or even in the top 10 that I hear from people,” she added. Slotkin has instead targeted home building and prescription drug costs in her legislation.

Raising the federal minimum wage has been a fraught debate for many election cycles; in 2016, Sanders’ push for a $15 minimum wage was a subject of heated debate with Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary. By 2020, Democrats had overwhelmingly embraced a $15 federal minimum wage, but a year later, their legislative efforts to enshrine it into law failed to overcome procedural hurdles and Republican opposition in the Senate.

“It's been on the platform for many, unfortunately, for too many cycles,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-California) said. Padilla thinks Democrats should “absolutely” emphasize it in 2028, but that they have “not entirely” reached consensus on the issue.

The federal minimum wage hasn’t budged since it rose to $7.25 in 2009. About 79,000 hourly workers earned exactly that wage in 2025, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Another 765,000 earned less than that.

Sanders’ cosponsors say they may have to revisit the $17-per-hour benchmark proposed in April 2025.

“We are talking about updating it,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Maryland) said about Sanders’ legislation. “It would be adjusting the numbers, and then the question is whether you adjust other things while you’re at it.”

Van Hollen declined to give specifics due to ongoing conversations, but said those workshopping the $17-per-hour proposal are taking new ideas, like Murphy’s $25-per-hour bill, into consideration.

“These are all good ideas that need to be pursued, but you know, one of the things we’re discussing is what is the best form,” Van Hollen added.

Sanders, for his part, was not familiar with Murphy’s bill, the Living Wage for All Act: “What is Living Wage for All?” Sanders asked when asked about the proposal.

Murphy’s $25-per-hour proposal — the companion to a bill from progressive Rep. Delia Ramirez of Illinois and co-sponsored by Ro Khanna of California among others — has faced criticism from some economists and others in conservative and libertarian circles who say such a high minimum wage could lead to layoffs, reduced hours, poor working conditions and low hiring rates as employers look to cut costs.

Murphy’s position is that current wages do not match workers’ soaring productivity, nor provide the income necessary to live.

“$25 would be a living wage for a vast, vast majority of workers in this country. Some workers living in very high-cost places need more than $25, but $25 is the national living wage,” Murphy said.

Murphy’s bill would require large corporations to pay minimum-wage workers $12 per hour immediately after enactment, with gradual increases up to $25 per hour five years later. Other employers would have 12 years to reach that wage.

The proposal would set the minimum wage thereafter to two-thirds of the national median hourly wage. In contrast, Sanders’ proposal would increase the minimum wage by the annual percentage increase in the country’s median hourly wage.

Clarification: This article has been updated to clarify the sponsor and co-sponsors of the House's Living Wage For All Act.]]> https://www.notus.org/congress/warren-schumer-crypto-ethics Avani Kalra Sen. Elizabeth Warren, citing Trump’s crypto windfall, urged Schumer and Thune to include ethics provisions. Mon, 13 Jul 2026 09:00:00 GMT https://www.notus.org/congress/warren-schumer-crypto-ethics Sen. Elizabeth Warren is slamming the Senate leaders of both parties for not including ethics restrictions on a cryptocurrency regulation bill after annual financial disclosures revealed that President Donald Trump earned more than $1 billion from the industry in 2025.

Warren (D-Massachusetts) sent a letter to Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Monday, pushing both leaders to include ethics guardrails banning senior administration officials and members of Congress from profiting off the cryptocurrency industry in the CLARITY Act, the emerging vehicle to regulate the crypto market.

Schumer has signaled he wants ethics provisions in the final bill, but it’s unclear where the negotiations over the guardrails stand. Thune has indicated that the CLARITY Act will receive a floor vote this month.

“The crypto legislation heading to the Senate floor must prevent the President, Vice President, senior administration officials, members of Congress and their families from profiting off of the crypto industry,” Warren wrote in the letter. “Anything less would be a flagrant giveaway to the President and his family at the expense of the public.”

Trump and his family own stakes in World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance platform and stablecoin issuer that is expected to receive a federal banking charter soon. The first family has been building a broader crypto empire and has earned at least $2.3 billion across four ventures.

“Crypto now accounts for the vast majority of the President’s income,” Warren wrote. “This new disclosure is particularly troubling as the President urges Congress to pass cryptocurrency deregulation legislation that will almost certainly boost the value of his crypto holdings.”

Warren’s letter is the latest example ofa widening split among Democratsover how best to regulate the emerging industry amid an influx of spending by cryptocurrency groups in elections across the country. Sens. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Maryland) and Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) voted to advance the bill out of committee, though both have said they will not support a final version that doesn’t contain ethics restrictions.

“We are in a digital revolution in our country and we absolutely need regulation and guardrails to ensure that the people who are engaging do so in a way that is safe, and that the United States continues to innovate,” Alsobrooks told NOTUS in June.

In her letter, Warren said “significant flaws in the current draft” have highlighted wider concerns about risks to national security and consumer protection — matters that are “even more pressing” following Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure, she wrote.

It’s unclear how the bill could progress without a measure addressing the president’s holdings: The Republican-led legislation requires some bipartisan support to reach 60 votes. A July vote would follow a series of delays mainly concerning the bill’s lack of an ethics provision and a different measure that would protect software developers from criminal prosecution if their software is used illegally.

An amendment introduced by Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Maryland) would have banned members of Congress and high-ranking government officials including the president, vice president and their families from owning, promoting or affiliating with cryptocurrency companies — but the effort failed in committee in May.]]> https://www.notus.org/donald-trump/who-owns-behind-trump-freedom-fuel-gas-stations-pennsylvania-new-jersey Angie Orellana Hernandez The White House says it’s not involved, despite the business’s Trump-centric marketing. Fri, 10 Jul 2026 18:46:06 GMT https://www.notus.org/donald-trump/who-owns-behind-trump-freedom-fuel-gas-stations-pennsylvania-new-jersey In a video promoted directly by the White House, a series of drivers pulls up to a red-, white- and blue-colored gas station and thanks President Donald Trump by name for the low prices advertised by a mysterious new business: Freedom Fuel.

Despite the video’s suggestion that Trump had something to do with the decision for Freedom Fuel to lower its prices well below market average — $3.47 in honor of the 47th president — the White House insists the effort is being led by a private company and that the marketing campaign was simply meant to highlight the patriotic American business.

“There is no other entity or person subsidizing the lower gasoline costs,” a White House official told NOTUS when asked about the unusual ad shared on official administration channels. “They are simply reducing their margin to make prices at the pump more affordable for drivers in Philadelphia and New Jersey. This retailer is taking the lead; others should follow.”
https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2074499867989123417?s=20Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, told Quartz earlier this week that it is unlikely Freedom Fuel is making any money on the scheme.

"Stations selling at this price, it’s not sustainable,” De Haan told Quartz. "Generally, when losses happen, somebody's got to pay for it."

It’s unclear when the Freedom Fuel stations were first unveiled, though the company’s state business record in Delaware, where the company is based, shows an incorporation date of June 23.

Trump confused many last week when he posted about Freedom Fuel and shared an apparent AI-generated image of a station using the company’s branding, referring to its “VERY smart” proprietor simply as “this retailer.”

There are 25 Freedom Fuel stations in all, spread across New Jersey and Pennsylvania, according to a sparse, recently created website for the company.

The Freedom Fuel Network did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

A trademark application for the Freedom Fuel Network was filed the same day as Trump’s AI-generated post. Attached to it was an address in Wilmington, Delaware, for the Corporation Trust Center, a registered-agent center that receives legal and tax correspondences.

The Corporation Trust Center is also home to Walmart, Apple, General Motors and hundreds of Trump’s own businesses, according to state records. Corporations are known to register in Delaware for a business-friendly law colloquially known as the “Delaware loophole” that permits companies to minimize taxes by legally shifting earnings to Delaware. State laws also shield the owners of some kinds of companies from being revealed publicly.

Anna Vishev, an attorney based in Staten Island, was identified on a trademark application filed by Freedom Fuel as the business’s lawyer. She told NOTUS over email that she was “not authorized to disclose any information regarding this matter beyond what is officially included in the public database of the U.S. Trademark Office.”]]> https://www.notus.org/economy/treasury-internal-report-warning-dangers-ai-bubble Eric Katz Publicly, the Trump administration is bullish about AI. Privately, some of its analysts are weighing AI against the dotcom bust. Mon, 06 Jul 2026 09:00:00 GMT https://www.notus.org/economy/treasury-internal-report-warning-dangers-ai-bubble A draft report inside the Treasury Department is set to warn of the risks posed by the artificial intelligence market, likening key aspects of it to the dotcom bubble that upended the U.S. economy when it burst in the early 2000s.

The document, the existence and contents of which have not been previously reported but was obtained by NOTUS, is a significant departure from the Trump administration’s public tone, which has focused on encouraging unrelenting investment to unlock exponential growth.

Career Treasury analysts found that AI firms are more deeply entrenched in the U.S. economy than their dotcom predecessors and pose significant risk to the entire system if financial conditions change, productivity goals are missed or various choke points stymie growth.

A downturn in the AI market would send shockwaves throughout the entire economic ecosystem, the analysts wrote.

The report concluded that the AI bubble’s popping would lead to less of an immediate crash than the U.S. economy experienced with dotcoms in the early 2000s. But the analysts predicted that companies would cut back, investors would lose confidence, and the economy would grow more slowly should the industry falter. Stock markets, private credit markets, companies financing data center buildouts, cloud providers, chip manufacturers and utilities would all feel the effect, according to the report.

Trump administration officials have never voiced similar unease, and a Treasury Department spokesperson dismissed the report’s findings as unvetted and not representative of the agency’s policies or views.


“The official position of the Secretary and the U.S. Treasury is that Artificial intelligence will be a key driver of America’s new Golden Age,” the spokesperson said. “AI has the potential to deliver unprecedented productivity gains, expand economic opportunity, and empower American workers and businesses.”


The report was prepared by Treasury analysts for Secretary Scott Bessent, Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh and various federal financial regulators and offers a rare glimpse of how the Trump administration is examining the risks posed by AI. It has been completed for weeks and is awaiting formal approval before reaching its intended audience, which is eventually expected to include the public.

The report stresses that AI companies maintain some fundamental differences from the businesses that dominated the dotcom boom of the late 1990s, which was defined by speculative excess and an overreliance on debt financing. Many of the top AI companies, by contrast, are more mature, profitable and maintain healthier balance sheets, which could blunt the impacts of the “bubble” bursting — or if it bursts at all.

Still, the analysts said, AI investors are taking risks so significant that much of the financial system now rests upon AI meeting expectations for productivity gains and profitability.

The Trump administration has publicly shown nothing but bullishness toward the AI industry. Bessent in a June 25 address in New York praised the largest technology firms for investing $750 billion in AI buildout this year. He favorably compared the current environment to the dotcom boom, saying AI should model its productivity goals against that era.

“Could we do at least that?” Bessent asked. “Can we do maybe more?”

Bessent has stressed that the primary risk posed by AI is failing to keep pace with competitor nations, and the administration has largely sought to unwind any regulatory effort that could hold the industry back.

President Donald Trump has floated procuring U.S. government stakes in AI companies so the American public could benefit from their growth, and the White House recently began meddling in the products that AI firms like Anthropic can release.

Fears of an AI bubble have grown over the last year, including on Capitol Hill, among some Wall Street observers and executives, inside think tanks and even within the ranks of top AI principals. Prominent economists and institutions, including the Bank of England — the central bank of the United Kingdom — and the head of the International Monetary Fund have also raised concerns about overvaluation of AI firms and the risks they pose to the broader economic system.

The AI sector is vulnerable to funding for data centers and other infrastructure projects drying up and sustained growth expectations not being met, the analysts found in the report, saying that was reminiscent of the dotcom crash.

That’s because the industry is increasingly concentrated within a small number of firms, heavily reliant on private-market financing and significantly invested in infrastructure — data centers — to support its future.

Supply chain issues, geopolitical tensions, electricity bottlenecks, utilities shortfalls and other concerns could all block AI's momentum.

While AI companies’ valuations are less speculative and generate more revenue than those in the dotcom era, the analysts said, the industry is at risk if it fails to grow as fast as it says it can, or if companies can’t monetize their products.

If AI companies fall short, the effects would ripple throughout the financial system as a whole, from big banks and hedge funds to private creditors, the analysts note. The largest AI firms are also all interconnected with each other and across different markets, which also points to widespread impacts if investment dries up or demand slows. In fact, fewer retail investors are backing AI than did dotcom ventures, so a sustained AI dip would have a greater impact on institutional investors fundamental to economic stability, the draft report indicates.

Prominent politicians have repeatedly requested a similar type of analysis from the Treasury Department. Earlier this year, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee, and other Senate Democrats requested the Treasury Department demand non-public data to conduct a report on the risks of an AI debt bubble. Last month, proposed a bill requiring financial firms to disclose that information to Treasury and for the agency to report the various ways the financial world is exposed to AI companies’ buildouts.

The report would detail how a downturn in AI could hurt the U.S. economy and suggest regulatory action to mitigate the effects.

“AI and Big Tech companies are increasingly reliant on shadowy forms of debt and balance sheet magic to fund their multi-trillion dollar AI buildouts,” Warren said, stating that her bill would “give regulators and Congress the information they need to identify risks early and protect our economy from another preventable financial crisis.”

The Treasury spokesperson said “Treasury will continue working with regulators and the private sector to ensure our regulatory framework keeps pace with innovation and supports the responsible adoption of AI in ways that strengthen the U.S. financial system.”

In his recent New York address, Bessent noted that at a recent G7 meeting, he disagreed with other leaders who suggested risks of AI surrounded safety and job loss.

“I think they were slightly stunned when I said the biggest risk to AI is China getting ahead of us,” he said. “We have to stay ahead.”]]> https://www.notus.org/economy/kevin-warshs-first-interest-rates-decision-keep-things-steady Jade Lozada The Federal Reserve is maintaining current interest rates, despite Trump’s demands to lower them. Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:09:33 GMT https://www.notus.org/economy/kevin-warshs-first-interest-rates-decision-keep-things-steady The Federal Reserve’s new chair, under immense pressure from President Donald Trump to lower interest rates, is keeping rates steady for now.

It was the first test of Kevin Warsh’s commitment to maintaining the independence of the central bank as Trump continues to call for sweeping rate cuts.

The Federal Open Market Committee maintained rates at 3.5 to 3.75% on Wednesday, citing economic uncertainty in the Middle East and high inflation. All twelve members, including Warsh, voted to hold rates.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong.

Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” the committee wrote in a statement.

The committee also removed the easing bias, language that indicates the committee seeks to lower rates in its next meeting. Warsh has said the Fed should reel in its communications to the public about its policymaking, with Fed governors making fewer public appearances and the central bank releasing fewer economic forecasts, including “dot plot” projections.

That easing language was absent from the Fed’s statement on Wednesday.

Warsh’s calls to limit the Fed’s public communications rankled some on Capitol Hill.

“I don’t know if I agree with Kevin on that, but he deserves to try it his way, and it may work better,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) said on Tuesday.

“I'm very uneasy when the head of any government agency says they would like less transparency into their actions and thinking,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), who has accused Warsh of serving as Trump’s “sock puppet.”

Economists widely expected the committee to cut the easing bias and maintain rates, as the Iran war supercharged inflation and Trump’s fluctuating tariff rates raised prices for consumers. The Trump administration has argued that oil prices will plummet when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, following the pending U.S. peace deal with Iran, but economists predict high prices for food and consumer goods will linger for months.

As Warsh confronts the choice of whether to deliver on Trump’s hopes for low rates, the economic and political environment is becoming less favorable to rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady since December due in part to deep economic uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. The annual inflation rate has accelerated each month since the war began, hitting 4.2% in May after cooling in the new year. The Fed aims to push inflation back down to 2%.

“The signals are probably not pointing towards cutting interest rates, but at the same time that would risk angering President Trump. But since again, President Trump's current approval rating is low, the cost of that to him personally, politically, is probably a little lower than it would be if President Trump's approval ratings were extremely high right now,” Erasmus Kersting, an economics professor at Villanova University, said on Wednesday morning.

Lawmakers on Tuesday anticipated the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady, too.

“My guess is they're going to maintain the status quo. They're probably worried about inflation, the job market has held up pretty well. We're not growing a huge number of jobs, we're still creating jobs, but nobody's being laid off either,” Kennedy said.

“I don’t see how he could decide to lower interest rates at this moment,” Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minnesota) said.

Many Republicans, however, said they still wanted the Fed to cut rates.

“Hopefully, those rates will come down,” Sen. Jim Banks (R-Indiana) said.

Warsh kept his options open for future interest rate decisions and communications about those decisions at his Senate confirmation hearing in April.

“I tend to favor messier meetings than some, where people don’t show up with rehearsed scripts, but we can have a good family fight,” Warsh said. “I’m not one for predeciding what interest rate should be. I never said to the president where I think rates should be.”

Trump touted positive economic indicators in a TruthSocial post on Wednesday morning.

“Great Numbers in all categories for the United States Economy with more people working today than have ever worked before,” Trump wrote on TruthSocial Wednesday. “Importantly, recent Stock Market numbers are through the roof because of the settlement and, likewise, Oil Prices are tumbling down!”

The economy added over 150,000 jobs in each of the previous three months, and the stock market has continued to grow this year.

The president said in an interview with NBC News in February that then-nominee Warsh “would not have gotten the job” if he did not want to lower interest rates. But in May, Trump told Warsh at his swearing-in ceremony that he wants the Fed to be independent and “do your own thing.”

When asked about the decision to keep the rates steady Wednesday, Trump defended Warsh.


"It's alright... We have a very good guy over there now, so I'm guided by what he wants to do," Trump told reporters.


Trump’s words were an apparent reversal from months of public pressure on the previous chair, Jerome Powell, to slash rates. Powell said Trump opened a criminal investigation into his handling of the Fed’s multibillion-dollar building renovation as political pressure.

Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, closed the probe in April, after intense criticism from Republicans and a campaign by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) to block Warsh’s confirmation process until the investigation was closed. The Fed’s inspector general will investigate Powell instead.

Powell remains on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until his term expires in 2028. He has said he will remain on the board until the investigation is “well and truly over.”

Powell’s decision to stay pushed out an ally of the president on the 12-person rate-setting committee. Fed Governor Stephen Miran — who took over the role in September after chairing the White House Council of Economic Advisers — resigned in May.]]> https://www.notus.org/economy/trump-family-crypto-firm-federal-banking-charter Jeff Stein Trump-appointed bank regulators’ crypto-friendly approach is likely to extend to World Liberty Financial, despite ethics concerns. Tue, 16 Jun 2026 10:00:00 GMT https://www.notus.org/economy/trump-family-crypto-firm-federal-banking-charter President Donald Trump's family crypto business is expected to soon be allowed to operate like a bank — a decision that would give U.S. companies a new route to steer money to the president.

World Liberty Financial, the stablecoin and trading platform co-founded by Trump and his three sons, applied for a national trust bank charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, or OCC, on Jan. 5. The Trump-appointed head of the OCC, Jonathan Gould, is due to announce his decision soon, and industry experts and congressional aides expect it to go in the Trump family’s favor.

Two former staffers at the banking regulator, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of professional reprisals, said it is all but certain that the OCC will approve the charter for Trump’s firm, with one saying it was “inconceivable” that the application would be denied.

Gould has granted approval to about a dozen similar crypto firms since assuming the role and changed the criteria for bank charters to be more crypto friendly. World Liberty Financial has argued that it meets the OCC’s new criteria for a bank charter. Good-government advocates and Democratic lawmakers say approving the Trump family’s crypto business would pose an unprecedented conflict of interest.

A "national trust bank charter" comes with significant legal and financial benefits: It would allow World Liberty Financial to settle financial transactions akin to Venmo or PayPal on the World Liberty Financial platform, through which the Trump family could receive a cut.

The bank charter would enable World Liberty Financial to publicly issue its stablecoin tokens — a cryptocurrency called “USD1” — domestically, without having to go through an intermediary institution. National charters also allow financial organizations to preempt state regulation, including liquidity requirements aimed at ensuring bank solvency.

"For the first time in history, a president is leaning on a bank regulator to give his private enterprise the implicit backing of the federal government," said Corey Frayer, the director of investor protection for Consumer Federation of America and a former aide to Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee. “It’s outrageous.”

Spokespeople for the White House and the OCC did not return requests for comment. In a statement, David Wachsman, a spokesperson for World Liberty Financial, said that despite the company's ownership, "none of its leadership or employees work for the U.S. government, and there are no conflicts of interest."

If granted charter approval, World Liberty Financial would be subject to "robust and permanent regulatory oversight from the OCC," Wachsman said, citing requirements to open its books to bank examiners and comply with anti-money-laundering rules, consumer-protection statutes and the Bank Secrecy Act, among other laws. The company has also said Trump has "had no involvement in World Liberty Financial since taking office."

"Approval would be a victory for advocates of consumer protection and American innovation alike," Wachsman added.

David Warrington, the White House counsel, previously said that Trump has "no involvement in business deals that would implicate his constitutional responsibilities."

Founded a few months before the 2024 presidential election, World Liberty has financially benefitted the president and his family through a complicated legal structure.

Trump owns 70% of an LLC — the rest of which is owned by unidentified Trump family members — that in turn owns 38% of the shares in a holding company that owns World Liberty Financial, according to the president’s latest financial disclosure and the company’s website, which has been updated within the last two months.

World Liberty Financial offers two main products: a WLF "token" that allows investors to vote on company policy and a stablecoin, called "USD1," that functions as an alternative currency and a mechanism for settling financial transactions.

In June 2025, Trump reported having personally earned $57 million from World Liberty Financial in a period that appears to only cover 2024. That number is expected to have ballooned into the hundreds of millions since then, according to Zach Everson, a research director at Public Citizen, a left-leaning advocacy group.

The president has been listed as the company’s “chief crypto advocate” and co-founder, a position he holds alongside Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump and Barron Trump. Billionaire and Trump confidante Steve Witkoff was initially listed as a co-founder along with Witkoff's sons Alex and Zach, but Steve Witkoff has since divested from the company.

World Liberty Financial has already come under scrutiny for posing conflicts of interest.

In October 2025, Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance, which holds more than half of USD1s in circulation. The White House said Zhao, who was convicted on money laundering charges, was the victim of the Biden administration’s overzealous “war on cryptocurrency.”

Four days before Trump's inauguration, a firm backed by top officials in the United Arab Emirates purchased a 49% stake in the family crypto firm. The New York Times has reported that Pakistan agreed to work with an affiliate of World Liberty Financial as it plays a central role in the administration’s negotiations with Iran.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) has also pointed to the national security dangers of the platform’s transactions with PancakeSwap, a North Korea-linked exchange.

The firm’s financial position only stands to be enhanced by the credibility and capacity a federal charter would provide. While World Liberty would not be authorized to take deposits or receive federal deposit insurance, if the charter is approved the firm could begin to issue stablecoins directly to the American public. Currently, World Liberty Financial goes through BitGo, an intermediary crypto platform.

U.S. companies would also have an incentive to settle large deals in USD1 because of its ties to the president, financial industry experts warn. World Liberty Financial under standard industry practice could take a small percentage of every transaction through its stablecoins.

Granting World Liberty Financial a charter would be consistent with the new crypto-friendly regime at the OCC. A former partner at Jones Day who served as chief counsel at OCC in Trump's first term, Gould has pushed aggressively to grant charters to crypto firms that once were viewed skeptically by career staff.

He has dramatically cut down the wait time for charter approvals from as long as two years to a goal of just 120 days and has slashed staff by more than a quarter, with cuts falling particularly heavily on senior management.

Some experts have supported Gould’s rapid approvals of bank charters for crypto firms broadly.

Under prior OCC leaders, career staff moved far too slowly and inefficiently to give stablecoin issuers guidance, leaving them in regulatory limbo, according to Norbert J. Michel, the vice president and director of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute, a libertarian-leaning think tank.

Those delays led the U.S. to fall behind international competition in the crypto industry, Michel said.

“What we’re talking about with the financial sector is different ways of getting money from one place to another. The more innovation we have with regard to that, the better off we are,” Michel said. “If technology advances in a way that makes this much easier, we shouldn’t try to hide it or prevent it or staunch it. You could get faster payment speeds, lower transaction costs and other consumer benefits we haven’t figured out yet because this is still new.”

Michel stressed, however, he did not know enough about the circumstances of Trump’s crypto firm to argue whether its charter should be approved.

Gould has referred to Democratic scrutiny as “the only political pressure I've felt from anyone” on the issue.

In response to questioning from Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Maryland) in February, Gould said, "If you're suggesting the president would do anything inappropriate or illegal, then I reject that assertion.”
]]> https://www.notus.org/policy/farmer-agriculture-difficulties-iran-war-costs Jade Lozada Agricultural producers are facing many problems squeezing their profit margins, including pressure from policies coming out of Washington. Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:25:00 GMT https://www.notus.org/policy/farmer-agriculture-difficulties-iran-war-costs Farmers are struggling. And while the Trump administration has insisted inflation woes will end when the war with Iran does, farmers and agricultural experts know it won’t be that simple.

Increased costs for energy and fertilizer are compounding a host of issues for farmers already running thin business margins.

There are tariffs on imported metals integral to the U.S. food production system. Farmers have been hit with reduced water runoff in California and bad weather conditions in Brazil. Food producers are grappling with small beef herds, pests and recovery from avian influenza.

“It is the most difficult period of financial stress that modern agriculture has faced since the 1980s farm crisis. And I don’t get pushback on that,” said John Hansen, the president of the Nebraska Farmers Union.

Hansen said the war’s economic fallout is part of a bigger picture in which farmers are beset by business problems stemming from Washington, from tariffs to DOGE cuts affecting the Department of Agriculture to the Senate’s delay in passing the 2026 farm bill.

The war has made things worse. The national average for gas prices punched in at $4.22 per gallon on Friday, compared to $3.14 one year ago, according to the American Automobile Association.

Wisconsin dairy farmer Linda Ceylor said she refilled the diesel tank that sits on her farm late last month for $4.45 per gallon, compared to $3.89 in October. That is on top of increased prices for her tractor repairs and cleaning supplies for the milk pipes.

“I’m going to spend at least a couple thousand more on this operation that I wasn’t planning to spend,” Ceylor said. “I, like most of America, did not know this war was coming.”

One of the most substantial impacts of the war will be increased transportation and processing costs during the harvest season in late summer and the fall, experts said.

Agricultural economist Ricky Volpe warned that those farm costs, as well as high fertilizer prices, threaten the “foundation to our food supply chain.” He pointed to row crops like corn, wheat and soy that go back into the food production system as animal feed or hit the market months later after being stored or converted to food staples such as cornstarch, sweetener or flour.

“Higher energy costs and higher fertilizer prices have already impacted the planting and the early stage of the growing process for all these commodities,” said Volpe, a professor at California Polytechnic State University.

“In my view, there’s no going back from that. It’s already baked in the cake, because there's no way that growers can sort of offset or relieve themselves of these costs and these challenges that they've already dealt with,” Volpe added.

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While many farmers likely purchased their fertilizer for the year before the war began, those who didn’t are in a tough position. Hansen said he works with producers who did not purchase materials or secure their loans by March 1 — the standard time to do so — and had to refinance. Those who were approved are eating into their loans to pay higher fertilizer and fuel prices.

“It’s a lot of money that you don’t have,” Hansen added.

The pressures are driving farmers in Nebraska to a crisis hotline Hansen’s organization helps run, he said. The hotline uses government-funded mental health vouchers in lieu of payment for one-hour counseling sessions.

“We had two years where we had the funding, where we distributed 8,200 vouchers one year, 8,400 vouchers the other year, and yet the level of stress that we're seeing today is substantially higher than it was those years,” Hansen said.

Consumers are feeling the squeeze, too.

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Food inflation was on the forecast for 2026 before President Donald Trump launched an attack on Iran. In February, the USDA Economic Research Service predicted 3.1% inflation for all food this year. The food inflation rate hit 3.2% in April, a half-percentage-point increase from the month prior.

“Many of the food price increases consumers are experiencing right now have primary explanations that predate the conflict entirely,” Kenneth Foster, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, wrote in an email to NOTUS. “The conflict adds to that baseline; it does not replace it.”

Foster estimates that a sustained conflict would add roughly 3 to 6 percentage points to food inflation numbers over the next year to year and a half, primarily burdening lower-income households that spend a significant portion of their income on food.

But Foster and Volpe agreed that an end to the war would provide some price relief at the supermarket.

Foster argued that the lag in price increases due to oil and supply constraints is “fundamentally different in scale and mechanism from the episodes that produced broad food-price crises in living memory,” like during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It is not the inflationary food crisis that the dramatic fertilizer and diesel headlines might imply, nor is it going to be rapid or certain,” Foster said.]]>