In this annual outlook episode of Insights & Indicators, Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at Carlyle, outlines five questions for 2026 designed to test the assumptions behind today’s relatively benign market consensus. He asks a simple but important question: What if the biggest risks in 2026 aren’t where markets are looking? Jason explores: ➡️ How political pressure around affordability could reshape Fed policy ➡️ Whether concerns about private credit miss more fragile sources of leverage ➡️ The implications of AI-driven capital concentration ➡️ What global bond markets may be signaling ➡️ And why Europe’s competitiveness challenge may require institutional change Where do you think markets may be underestimating risk in 2026? Share your perspective and listen to the full episode here: http://spr.ly/6044CIQXk
About us
Carlyle (NASDAQ: CG) is a global investment firm with deep industry expertise that deploys private capital across three business segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest. With $474 billion of assets under management as of September 30, 2025, Carlyle’s purpose is to invest wisely and create value on behalf of its investors, portfolio companies, and the communities in which we live and invest. Carlyle employs more than 2,400 people in 27 offices across four continents. Nothing herein constitutes an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or product of Carlyle or any Carlyle-managed fund. Additional notices & disclaimers can be found here: https://www.carlyle.com/notices-and-disclaimers
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Updates
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Heading into 2026, the consensus view is broadly constructive: accelerating growth, easing inflation, lower interest rates, and another leg higher for equities. While we don’t disagree with this direction of travel, rather than simply accept it, we want to test its durability. In our latest research, Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at Carlyle, frames the year ahead through five questions he believes are central to evaluating possible market outcomes, from monetary policy and credit risks to AI investment and global policy shifts. 📄 Read the paper here: http://spr.ly/6040CxiiE
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Carlyle’s Direct Lending platform is pleased to have led the debt refinancing for Wedgewood Pharmacy, a Partners Group portfolio company. Founded in 1981 and headquartered in Swedesboro, New Jersey, Wedgewood Pharmacy is one of the largest specialty compounding pharmacies serving the U.S. pet space. Carlyle acted as Administrative Agent, Joint Lead Arranger and Joint Bookrunner on the financing.
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As 2026 gets underway, what do we see shaping today’s credit environment? Markets are on firmer footing, but selectivity remains essential. Dispersion across sectors and structures continues to reward disciplined underwriting, strong origination, and the ability to navigate complexity. In “Credit in 2026: A Market That Demands Insight, Not Just Capital,” Mark Jenkins, Co-President and Head of Global Credit & Insurance at Carlyle, outlines the themes defining the year for investors and borrowers. ➡️ Read the full outlook: http://spr.ly/6042CSXYO ➡️ Mark Jenkins shared additional credit market insights in The Wall Street Journal: http://spr.ly/6045CSXYR
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Today’s announcement from Moeve marks a significant strategic step for the business. As a long-term shareholder, Carlyle supports the proposed combination with Galp to create a leading Iberian energy champion with the scale and resilience to support Europe’s energy transition.
🆕🆕🆕 Moeve y Galp han anunciado hoy que han alcanzado un acuerdo no vinculante para avanzar en las negociaciones sobre la potencial integración de sus negocios downstream, con el objetivo de crear dos compañías energéticas líderes en la Península Ibérica. 🔵 Una plataforma industrial escalable, que integra las actividades de refino, trading, química y de energías basadas en moléculas verdes (biocombustibles e hidrógeno), al servicio de clientes B2B con una oferta competitiva global. 🔵 Una plataforma de retail con una de las mayores redes de estaciones de servicio en España y Portugal, con aproximadamente 3.500 puntos, para ofrecer una oferta más amplia y de valor a los clientes, con mejor servicio de conveniencia y acelerando el despliegue de puntos de recarga de vehículos eléctricos y servicios de movilidad de nueva generación. “Esta potencial integración representa una oportunidad única para fortalecer el papel de la Península Ibérica en la transición energética, creando plataformas con la escala, resiliencia y capacidad de inversión necesarias para impulsar el cambio con rapidez. En Moeve, creemos que las alianzas a largo plazo son esenciales para garantizar que la transición energética se traduzca en negocios prósperos que anticipen el futuro en la región”, Maarten Wetselaar, CEO de Moeve. Cualquier operación potencial entre las partes estará sujeta a la negociación y cierre de acuerdos definitivos y vinculantes, las aprobaciones corporativas necesarias y la obtención de las autorizaciones regulatorias que resulten pertinentes. En la actual fase no se han tomado decisiones finales y no hay impacto en las operaciones en curso, empleados o relaciones comerciales existentes de las compañías. Más info👉 https://lnkd.in/eHA-V5km
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Today, Steve Wise, Co-Head of Americas Private Equity, joined Bloomberg News to discuss the state of the #IPO market and how the private equity landscape is evolving as we look toward 2026. He discussed LP to Medline’s recent IPO and why its role within the US health care ecosystem has resonated with public market investors, particularly as companies with durable fundamentals come into focus. During the conversation, Steve shared, “I think now that the clouds have cleared a lot, those fears over the tariffs are behind us. The impacts were not bad, economic growth was good, margins have expanded, and there’s more of a meeting of the minds between buyers and sellers.” With M&A activity already picking up, that backdrop is shaping a more constructive environment for private equity and IPOs heading into 2026. Watch the full interview here: http://spr.ly/6046CoxzA
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We are pleased to share that Chris Perriello, Global Head of Secondaries at Carlyle AlpInvest, has been named by Private Equity News as one of the Twenty Most Influential in Secondaries 2026, marking the second consecutive year he has received this recognition. This annual list highlights senior professionals shaping the private equity secondaries market amid continued growth and evolving market dynamics. With close to two decades at Carlyle AlpInvest, Chris has overseen the growth of the firm’s secondaries platform, contributing to its evolution, reach, and scale. He manages a global team and serves on Carlyle AlpInvest’s investment and management committees. Congratulations, Chris, on this well-deserved recognition. See the full list here: http://spr.ly/6042CoGAg This award was announced on January 5, 2026, by Private Equity News. No compensation was paid by Carlyle for the award. No award should be relied upon as a predictor of future results.
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Recent developments in Venezuela underscore a consequential moment for geopolitics in the Western Hemisphere, with relevance for global markets. In the latest edition of The Carlyle Compass, Admiral James Stavridis, USN (Ret.), Vice Chairman of Carlyle, analyzes recent US actions involving Venezuela and what they could mean for defense spending, global energy markets, and geopolitical competition. Read more in The Carlyle Compass: http://spr.ly/6040Cmdx8
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Carlyle is pleased to announce that we have agreed to sell Tescan Group, a leading manufacturer of electron microscopes and advanced scientific and analytical instruments, to Shimadzu Corporation for an enterprise value of $850 million. Since our acquisition in 2023, we partnered closely with Tescan’s management to accelerate its strategic repositioning toward high-growth semiconductor and nanotechnology markets, strengthen operational execution, and drive innovation through new product launches and acquisitions. Together, these initiatives delivered strong above-market growth and positioned Tescan for its next phase of expansion. Read more here: http://spr.ly/6047ClRI3
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Corporate carve-outs are often among the most complex and potentially rewarding opportunities in private equity. As big companies focus more on their primary businesses, these divestitures give spun-out divisions a chance to succeed on their own. In this piece, Martin Sumner, Global Head of Industrials within the Carlyle US Corporate Private Equity segment, shares insights on practical considerations that consistently influence carve-out outcomes. Across transactions, several themes stand out: ➡️ Disciplined planning that accounts for global complexity and helps set the company up for operational independence ➡️ Deep sector engagement that sharpens diligence and works to accelerate day-one readiness ➡️ Close collaboration with management to navigate the transition while building the culture of a standalone organization ➡️ Operational continuity as the foundation for long-term value creation These factors often shape how companies move from being part of a larger organization to operating on their own. Read the full piece below.