Bitfinex

Bitcoin ended July with a 7.3% gain but consecutive closes below $63,000 shifted the near-term picture. What held the market was on-chain accumulation: approximately 155,000 BTC moved into the $62,000-$65,000 range as price fell, representing 0.7% of circulating supply absorbed by buyers near current prices. The risk is the 10-year real yield at 2.41%, close to the 2.5% threshold that would invalidate the macro tailwind thesis for bitcoin if sustained for two consecutive weeks. Bitfinex Alpha 216, our weekly market read, breaks down what holds and what breaks first.

The bond market doesn't trust the Fed on inflation. The 30-year yield just hit its highest since 2007. Any hike now would target monetary inflation, not consumer demand, which is already cooling. That setup has historically favoured BTC, a fixed-supply hedge.

Bitcoin's July recovery was real, but it was not driven by US buyers. Price rose 15% off the early-July lows, yet the Coinbase Premium, the clearest read on US spot demand, stayed negative for a record 60-plus trading days. The two engines that usually lead a US move, spot ETP flows and treasury-company buying, sat out the entire rally. The bid came from offshore instead. After the hawkish FOMC statement, and with no fresh buying stepping in, bitcoin ends the month higher but fragile, still ranging rather than breaking out. The signal to watch is the premium itself. A sustained flip back into positive territory would be the clearest sign US demand, and the domestic bid missing through this whole recovery, has returned.

For 157 days, holding BTC through the futures basis has paid less than a two-year Treasury. Only one run on record has lasted longer, 160 days, and it ended at the November 2022 cycle low. In three days, this becomes the longest on record.

Jobs data, inflation prints and Jackson Hole all land this month. Soft jobs and easing inflation let real yields fall, a tailwind for bitcoin. Firm inflation with resilient demand pushes the 10-year real yield past 2.5 percent, breaking the case. We're watching closely.

Bitcoin's cycle tops keep remarkable time. After each of the last three halvings, the peak has arrived within a tight window: 525 days in 2017, 546 in 2021, and 534 days this cycle. Measured from the prior cycle low instead, the three tops fall within eight days of each other, at 1,067, 1,059 and 1,062 days. The bottoms have kept a similar rhythm, arriving 360 to 410 days after each top. We are currently still just 300 days in. Past cycles are a guide, not a rule, and this one has already broken from the script in one respect: its drawdown has been shallower than the 65 percent or more seen in previous cycles. Whether the bottom keeps to the historical clock is the open question the next few months answer.

Bitcoin held its range through July, but the macro backdrop has shifted. Three Fed dissents at the 29 July meeting on US interest rates pushed September hike probability above 57 percent, but Chair Warsh stripped forward-guidance language from the statement entirely. This month's Bitfinex Bytes covers what this means for bitcoin markets: • Will three dissenting Fed votes impact bitcoin heading into August? • How is the ETF flow cycle responding? • What does Strategy's five-week buying pause do to demand pressure? • We also highlight the latest content from our blog, including an analysis of tokenised RWAs, the BIP-110 proposal, plans to put USDt on Bitcoin via RGB, and Ark's solution to Bitcoin infrastructure One monthly read. Everything that moved the market in July.

For the first time since they began trading, BTC and ETH ETF flows have diverged. Through the January inflows, the February redemptions, and the May to June drawdown, the two flow tapes moved together. Since mid-July that has changed. Bitcoin funds recorded redemptions of roughly $225 million and $240 million on 23 and 24 July. Ether funds stayed in inflows through both sessions and added $13.3 million more on 30 July. Passive allocators are no longer treating the two largest assets as a single trade. Ether now carries an independent spot bid at a time when its derivatives positioning sits near cycle lows, leaving ETF demand as the primary force setting price.

Solana's Alpenglow upgrade is due to roll out between August and October 2026. According to Anza, it is the biggest consensus change in Solana's history. The headline is transaction finality drops from 12.8 seconds to 100-150 milliseconds, faster than a Visa card authorisation. To get there, Alpenglow moves validator votes off-chain, freeing around 75% of block space the network currently spends coordinating with itself. Bitfinex examines what the upgrade involves and what it could mean for Solana's role in on-chain finance: https://lnkd.in/epzqUxC9

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